Seoul fears rise of new ultra-conservative government in Tokyo may bring out old skeletons

 

The 64-year-old conservative and head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 237 out of 465 votes in the lower house, comfortably surpassing the 233-seat majority threshold. Although the LDP holds 196 seats, Takaichi secured victory in the first round with backing from the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) and several independent lawmakers.

 

A protégé of the late ultraconservative prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi has pledged to strengthen security ties with the United States and take a harder line against China and North Korea — a stance that contrasts sharply with the Lee Jae Myung administration’s diplomatic approach centered on dialogue, regional inclusivity, and what Seoul officials call “pragmatic diplomacy.”

 

While she has promised continuity with her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba’s policies, her ascent marks a clear ideological shift to the right. Takaichi has long championed “patriotism” in education and asserted stronger sovereignty claims in territorial disputes — positions that could test the fragile thaw between Seoul and Tokyo that began under Ishiba through resumed shuttle diplomacy.

 

For the Lee administration, which came to power in June 2025, the leadership change in Tokyo adds a new layer of uncertainty. President Lee made Japan for his first bilateral visit after taking office, signaling intent to stabilize relations with Tokyo and Washington.

 

Yoshihiro Makino, visiting professor at Hiroshima University, said Seoul hopes to maintain the current momentum but is concerned about possible provocations under Takaichi.
 

“There are concerns that with Takaichi in office, sensitive moves could re-emerge — such as visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, renewed claims over Dokdo, or discussions on the continental shelf agreement,” Makino said.

 

He noted that many of Takaichi’s political allies are deeply attached to historical and territorial issues, heightening the risk of confrontation. “If Japan acts too provocatively, the Lee administration will have no choice but to respond firmly, since public opinion in South Korea reacts strongly to matters of history and sovereignty,” he added.

 

Still, Seoul and Tokyo are expected to find common ground on economic and technological cooperation, particularly in supply chain resilience and semiconductor coordination.
  Takaichi’s rise also introduces a new variable into the regional power equation among Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul. Both Japan and the United States are now under conservative leadership, but their approaches to North Korea diverge. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed willingness to reopen dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, while Takaichi is expected to pursue a more hardline policy toward Pyongyang.

 

In this shifting regional dynamic, Seoul’s ability to balance between Washington’s unpredictable diplomacy and Tokyo’s tougher stance will be critical in defining South Korea’s role on the Korean Peninsula.