OPINION: How Korean semiconductor firms can navigate uncertainty amid U.S. tariff bombshells (This opinion article was contributed by Per Stenius, the founder and CEO of Finnish management consulting firm Reddal.) SEOUL, August 9 (AJP) - With the recent tariff deal with the United States reducing the duty burden on South Korean exports to 15% from the initially envisioned 25%, President Lee Jae Myung celebrated the agreement as overcoming “a significant hurdle.” Various voices from the Bank of Korea to local analysts also praised the deal for reducing uncertainty. Yet, we also await the possibility of expanded U.S. tariffs on specific items. In particular, we are watching closely to see what Washington’s policy will be towards semiconductor imports. While Seoul’s presidential office insists South Korea will be treated as a most-favored-nation (MFN) regarding semiconductor shipments, U.S. President Donald Trump just announced a tariff of around 100% on this valuable trade item. The sector’s value to South Korea is underscored by the fact that it makes up around 20% of the nation’s total export value. The importance of semiconductor chips is only going to grow from here because they are critical to the ongoing advancement of almost all modern technologies, from smartphones and IT products to cloud computing and AI. Amid fierce competition with semiconductor suppliers in Taiwan and China, Korean firms will be hoping for any kind of edge they can find from the U.S. But they do not need to simply sit and wait passively while they await further announcements from Washington and the outcome of this month’s summit meeting between President Trump and his South Korean counterpart Lee Jae Myung. Instead, one of the most effective ways to be prepared for divergent trajectories is scenario analysis, in which we ask “what if?” Don’t put all your chips in one place By moving beyond linear forecasting, companies can use scenario analysis to strategically plan and explore what-if futures, rather than betting on a single forecast. It involves various steps, including identifying key variables, before constructing a scenario framework, and assessing implications and strategic options. While this analysis can be applied to various other sectors, we can present semiconductors as an important example. Given the ongoing uncertainty driven by the U.S., two critical variables can help frame scenarios for Korean semiconductor companies: the severity and duration of U.S. tariffs, and the degree of flexibility within global semiconductor supply chains. These two variables can capture both external pressures and internal adaptability, helping Korean semiconductor firms shape plausible futures for strategic decision making. The most optimistic scenario would be the “open pathway,” in which tariffs are rolled back through negotiations and the supply chain becomes more flexible and interconnected. This then allows extended partnerships and collaboration with vendors and customers across regions. In such a scenario, Korean semiconductor companies should reinforce their current strategic positioning by strengthening global partnerships, optimizing production and logistics, and scaling operations efficiently. There is another scenario, the “false calm,” in which tariffs are still rolled back but the underlying supply chain is inflexible and highly concentrated in a few regions. Korean semiconductor players need to be wary of complacency despite short-term relief from tariffs, with topline growth supported by a temporary improvement in margins. Continued investment in much-needed areas such as supply chain resilience and risk management is essential to prepare for future uncertainties and potential disruptions. A further “adaptive diversification” scenario can be defined as a situation where tariffs persist, but the degree of supply chain flexibility is high. In such a scenario, Korean firms can respond by shifting and adjusting their supply chains in order to reduce geographical risks. For instance, they may shift a part of their production to Southeast Asia, expand packaging or testing operations to countries such as Vietnam or India, and source critical materials from alternative suppliers outside high-risk regions like China. The worst-case scenario is “geopolitical gridlock,” where tariffs widen and global trade becomes increasingly inflexible along geopolitical lines. This environment would require semiconductor companies to localize go-to-market strategies by adapting customer engagement to regional needs and regulations. Their activities and operations need to align with trade blocs and account for potential export controls and subsidies. Also, in this scenario, decentralization becomes a long-term strategy, calling for sustained investments in local manufacturing, packaging, and compliance. Not a game of chance Scenario analysis is not about making predictions, but “adaptive diversification” appears to be the most likely scenario for Korean semiconductor companies based on our observation of recent developments in the market and policy landscape. “Adaptive diversification” gains traction as that recent 15% tariff agreement indicates that tariff measures are likely to remain in place, even among close allies. Following the promise of MFN treatment, Korean semiconductors may face a significantly smaller tariff than the 100% rate cited by President Trump, but we await confirmation. Meanwhile, with the ongoing development of Southeast Asian countries as emerging manufacturing hubs, along with U.S. efforts to reshore semiconductor production capacity back to its own territory for national security reasons, the global semiconductor supply chain is beginning to show signs of increasing flexibility. While “adaptive diversification” seems most probable, we can also consider the possibility of the “false calm” scenario. Despite ongoing trade tensions, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on Korean semiconductors, particularly those supporting next-generation technologies such as AI and high-bandwidth memory. Even though South Korea’s overall exports to the U.S. fell in the first half of this year, its shipments of semiconductors to America grew at a double-digit rate. Additionally, Washington has shown interest in Seoul’s proposal for manufacturing cooperation, still suggesting potential strategic and diplomatic measures for easing tariffs. In parallel, China continues to expand its role within the global semiconductor supply chain, and the concentration could remain in this region leaving the structural inflexibility largely intact. China is still negotiating a trade deal with the U.S., the outcome of which may have wider geopolitical implications. Korean semiconductor firms must translate scenario insights into concrete actions to respond effectively to identified scenarios. This can be done by stress-testing current strategies under each scenario and identifying vulnerabilities, as well as “no-regrets” moves, such as supplier diversification, that deliver value across all possible futures. Scenario planning should be embedded into a company’s annual strategic planning process to ensure organizational resilience and long-term agility. While recognizing the erosion of long-stable assumptions about global trade, they can still take their own initiative to more effectively navigate these shifting geopolitical dynamics and trade disruptions. 2025-08-09 12:12:45

OPINION: Drawing wisdom, strength from great victory in WWⅡ SEOUL, July 23 (AJP) - China has just announced that it will commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. On the morning of Sept. 3, Chinese President Xi Jinping will address a grand gathering held that day to mark the anniversary. The commemoration events serve as a solemn tribute to the Chinese people's arduous and heroic resistance against Japanese militarist aggression, reaffirming the Chinese people's steadfast commitment to the path of peaceful development and to upholding world peace, carrying far-reaching and profound significance. Remembering the past, honoring sacrifice Commemoration is an act of remembrance. Eighty years ago, after a grueling 14 years of tenacious resistance, the Chinese people achieved a great victory in the war against Japanese aggression, which also signaled the complete triumph of the global war against fascism. It is a victory of justice over evil, light over darkness, and progress over reaction, a victory for not only the Chinese people, but also for all people around the world. It stands as an enduring chapter in the history of the Chinese nation and the global pursuit of justice. Under the theme "Remember History, Honor the Martyrs, Cherish Peace, and Create the Future," the commemoration aims to honor the Chinese people's resolute resistance against Japanese militarist aggression, pay tribute to the heroes who gave their lives, and the international solidarity that helped make victory possible. At its core, the remembrance reaffirms China's commitment to safeguarding the outcomes of World War II and respecting history. A shared legacy of resistance Commemoration is also about carrying forward a shared legacy. The victory of Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression is the great triumph achieved through the collective efforts of the Chinese people, the anti-fascist alliance and all peoples around the world who opposed fascist aggression. Countless peace-loving and justice-upholding nations, peoples, and international organizations offered invaluable support to China's efforts. The Soviet Union provided China with large quantities of weapons and equipment, and the Flying Tigers from the United States created "The Hump" airlift to transport much-needed supplies to China. Humanitarian heroes such as Canadian surgeon Norman Bethune, Indian doctor Dwarkanath S. Kotnis, German businessman John Rabe, and Bernhard Arp Sindberg from Denmark stood up against atrocities, saving countless lives. British journalist Michael Lindsay and international fighter Hans Shippe lent their voices and strength to China's cause. On Sept. 3, a grand military parade will be held at Beijing's Tian'anmen Square to honor the spirit of the resistance against Japanese aggression and to reflect the character of a modern China that remains committed to peace. China will invite foreigners who aided the country's resistance against Japanese aggression or representatives of their family members to observe the military parade, underscoring international solidarity and commemorating shared sacrifices in pursuit of peace and justice. Learning from history, defending peace Commemoration is also a solemn reminder of the costs of war and the value of peace. All peace-loving peoples around the world must remember the history written in blood and sacrifice, resolutely safeguard the outcomes of World War II, uphold true multilateralism, and work together to build a community with a shared future for mankind and a brighter future for humanity. Amid mounting global uncertainty and instability, China's solemn commemoration underscores its enduring commitment to safeguarding the victory of World War II, defending international fairness and justice, and advancing the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. It also sends a clear message to the international community: in times of turmoil, it is essential to draw on the wisdom of history, to summon the strength and clarity needed to oppose all forms of hegemonism and power politics. In remembering the past, China looks to the future. Standing with all peace-loving nations and peoples, China will remain a guardian of historical memory, a partner in national development and rejuvenation, and a champion of global fairness and justice. Together, they will strive for a better future for all humanity. 2025-07-23 17:46:20

OPINION: Beyond borders -- Advice for students considering college abroad SEOUL, July 21 (AJP) - For students looking to study abroad, particularly in the United States, the current climate is fraught with uncertainty. With concerns around global conflicts and sharp political changes, as well as the impact of COVID-19 still fresh in our memory, a growing number of students are shifting perceptions about traditional destinations for university overseas. Students are also considering more diverse options. In my capacity as Director of University and Career Counselling at Dulwich College Seoul, where we have over 46 different nationalities represented in our community, I am seeing greater diversity in the universities that our students attend. Our most recent 2025 graduates have been accepted to universities in six different countries across multiple continents. These include prestigious institutions in the U.S. and Britain, as well as Canada, Ireland, Japan, and Switzerland. I could also attest to how Korean students are sought-after across the world, not least due to Korea’s strong educational and cultural reputation. As the list of appealing college options becomes more extensive than ever, I would like to offer some advice to Korean students. I have had access to the global perspective and benefited from working on both sides of the application process as an admission counsellor at Seattle University and an Associate Director of Admission at both Boston College and Babson College. Here are some guiding thoughts. 1. Why study abroad at all? A university education is about more than lectures and exams - it is about building critical thinking and life skills. Students who go abroad can benefit from rich and formative cultural experiences as they build global citizenship, cross-cultural understanding, resilience, and independence. These attributes are invaluable in today’s world, including the global job market. You may want to ask yourself where you want to live and work after graduation. What kind of lifestyle do you envision? Do you want to obtain an advanced degree abroad? The answers to these questions can point clearly in the direction of one or more potential foreign university destinations. 2. Broaden the scope of possibilities Aside from Indian and Chinese counterparts, Koreans made up the biggest number of foreign students in the United States during the 2023-24 school year, according to the Institute of International Education. While there are many great U.S. options, do not limit your search based on what others have done in the past. Our students are exploring colleges in places as diverse as Australia, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, and Spain. The idea of studying in Europe or another country in Asia might have felt unconventional a decade ago, but now it is becoming mainstream. This is driven in no small part by the growing recognition of the high quality of education in many institutions across the world. You can be practical with your considerations, too. For instance, a student aspiring to work in Europe may find more networking and job placement opportunities by studying at a European institution. Similarly, someone planning to return to Asia might benefit from the cultural and language familiarity of studying in Japan or Hong Kong. 3. Do not be guided by prestige alone My next point is that while world-renowned universities in traditional college destinations do carry a certain prestige, global rankings do not necessarily capture student satisfaction, faculty interaction, or career outcomes. Therefore, students should not let prestige alone be their guiding attraction. Instead, focus on which university best fits your academic interests, personality, goals, and preferred lifestyle. In addition, note that smaller or lesser-known institutions can often provide more personalized support, closer student-faculty relationships, and strong alumni networks. 4. Consider the cost Studying abroad can seem prohibitively expensive, but it does not have to be. Countries like the Netherlands and Japan offer world-class programs for relatively low tuition costs. Canadian and Australian institutions allow students to work part-time, easing the financial burden of studying in those places. In the U.S., despite its reputation for high costs, top-performing Korean students regularly receive substantial merit-based scholarships. It can pay off to do the research and see what is on offer. Some schools even offer cost-saving pathways like dual-degree programs or fast-tracked graduate options. 5. To visit or not to visit Virtual tours and webinars have become sophisticated since COVID-19. They allow families to explore campuses, attend information sessions, and speak to student ambassadors without leaving home. However, if travel is possible, try to visit a few universities, especially if you are already going abroad for a vacation or summer program. It can be very helpful to get the feel of walking a college campus, meeting faculty staff, and imagining your life there. Either way, I recommend that you ask what support services are available to international students, what kind of orientation and mentorship programs exist, and what the graduate outcomes are. Many institutions are also happy to arrange chats with student ambassadors or regional admissions officers. Ultimately, you should let your interests and personality guide this journey. It can be daunting, but also incredibly exciting. University presents an opportunity for self-discovery, shaping your adult identity. The results are often transformative. A well-chosen international university can be the gateway not just to career success, but to lifelong confidence that can take you anywhere in the world. 2025-07-21 16:29:13