However, long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly. The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.
Nevertheless, this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term. An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would affect long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter-term climate response.
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth’s oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years. Transient climate response is much shorter-term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.
However, in this new analysis, by only including The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected. Nevertheless, when it comes to the longer-term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.
아주경제 앤드류 이 기자=
reporter
Park Sae-jin
swatchsjp@ajunews.com