SEOUL, October 20 (AJP) - South Korea is set to lose its long-held economic edge over Taiwan this year, according to new projections from the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF expects South Korea’s per capita gross domestic product to fall to 37th place globally, while Taiwan’s rises to 35th, marking the first time in 22 years that Taiwan will surpass its East Asian rival.
In its World Economic Outlook released on Oct. 15, the IMF estimated South Korea’s GDP per capita at $35,962 for 2025, down 0.8 percent from last year’s $36,239. The decline pushes South Korea down three spots among the world’s 197 economies.
Taiwan's GDP per capita, by contrast, is expected to climb 11.1 percent from $34,060 last year to $37,827 this year, driven by a resilient technology sector and strong export performance. The increase would move Taiwan up to 35th place globally.
The shift underscores a broader divergence between the two economies that have long been seen as industrial peers — both export-driven, high-tech nations that transformed rapidly in the latter half of the 20th century.
But in recent years, Taiwan’s booming semiconductor industry and diversified export base have helped it outpace South Korea’s more uneven growth, which has been slowed by weak consumption and a sluggish property market.
The IMF projects South Korea will reach a GDP per capita of $40,802 by 2028, hitting the $40,000 milestone a year earlier than previously forecast. Still, the nation’s global ranking is expected to slide further — to 38th next year, 40th in 2028, and 41st in 2029 — as other advanced economies grow faster.
Taiwan’s trajectory, meanwhile, remains sharply upward. The IMF expects the island to surpass the $40,000 mark next year, reaching $41,586, and to rise to 31st place globally. By 2030, Taiwan’s per capita income is projected to exceed $50,000.
* This article, published by Aju Business Daily, was translated by AI and edited by AJP.
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