As the semiconductor industry shifts investment toward high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, and other high-performance DRAM, a deepening shortage of NAND flash is expected to squeeze both corporate buyers and consumers.
Industry officials said Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have recently concentrated equipment and staff on expanding HBM and converting to advanced DRAM processes, while keeping new NAND investment and line expansions to a minimum. As a result, global NAND supply growth is expected to remain in the low single digits this year, creating a gap that is not keeping pace with demand.
Prices are already rising. TrendForce said enterprise NAND used in server SSDs rose an average 15% to 20% in the first quarter, with an additional 5% to 10% increase expected in the second quarter. NAND used in mainstream consumer SSDs rose about 10% on average in the first quarter, and some high-capacity products have seen increases of more than 15%.
The increases are directly raising procurement costs for corporate customers. NAND-based storage and system-chip customers including Kioxia, Western Digital and MediaTek are struggling to secure contracted volumes, and some are increasing spot purchases, according to industry officials. Global cloud providers that buy large volumes of data center SSDs are responding by renegotiating annual pricing contracts or adjusting shipment schedules.
In the server market, the shortage is affecting system configurations. Some enterprise SSD lead times have reportedly stretched from six to eight weeks to 10 to 12 weeks or more. Some small and midsize data center operators are also shifting specifications from high-capacity SSDs to mid- and lower-capacity products that are easier to obtain.
The impact is also showing up in consumer markets. Major PC and laptop makers in South Korea and overseas have raised launch prices for new models by about 3% to 7% to reflect higher SSD costs. Smartphone makers are widening price gaps among storage options, passing costs on to buyers, with the biggest increases concentrated in models with 512GB or more.
Changes are also emerging in retail channels. Major online shopping sites have sharply reduced discounts on 1TB and 2TB SSDs, and some brands have faced longer restocking waits for popular models due to uneven supply. Many in the industry expect NAND supply to normalize only after the second half of this year.
Analysts also see signs of a longer-term shift. As memory makers steer investment toward higher-margin HBM and premium DRAM, NAND could become structurally less flexible on supply over the medium to long term, raising the possibility that price strength could persist beyond a short-term spike.
An industry official said, "As long as investment remains centered on HBM, NAND expansion will be limited, and price pressure is likely to persist, especially for enterprise SSDs and high-capacity consumer products."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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