The World Meteorological Organization has formally announced that a strong El Nino could develop by mid-2026. South Korean climate experts urged early preparations for possible heavy rain in the country’s south and for water-resource management, with some warning the event could intensify into a “super El Nino.”
According to the Science Media Center Korea on Saturday, the WMO said Thursday afternoon (Korea time) that sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific, making it likely El Nino will return around May to July 2026. The WMO said the episode is likely to develop into a strong El Nino.
El Nino refers to sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific running at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. Through ocean-atmosphere interactions, it can disrupt global climate patterns and trigger a mix of extremes depending on the region, including drought, heavy rain, heat waves and shifts in hurricane activity.
In its outlook for May to July, the WMO projected above-average surface temperatures in nearly all regions, with especially pronounced warmth expected in the southern United States, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and North Africa. Rainfall signals vary widely: precipitation is expected to increase in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and parts of Central Asia, while drought is forecast for Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia. During the Northern Hemisphere summer, hurricane activity tends to increase in the central and eastern Pacific, while Atlantic hurricane formation is typically suppressed.
The WMO cautioned that uncertainty remains in intensity forecasts because of the “spring predictability barrier,” adding that forecast accuracy improves after April.
In South Korea, scientists are debating whether the event could grow to a record scale.
Kuk Jong-seong, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Seoul National University, said the odds of a strong El Nino are “very high,” citing unusually warm tropical oceans, heat buildup in the western Pacific warm pool and the potential for ocean-atmosphere coupling. He said it would be difficult to rule out a super El Nino if westerly wind bursts occur repeatedly in the western and central Pacific in April and May, pushing the Nino 3.4 index to 2.5 degrees Celsius or higher.
During the 2015 super El Nino, widespread abnormal weather was observed, including global heat, drought and heavy rain.
Yeasook Oh, a professor in the Department of Climate and Energy Systems Engineering at Ewha Womans University, said El Nino events that develop in summer do not affect South Korea in a consistent way and can be highly variable. He said variability in rainfall and temperature is likely to be greater than normal. Huh Chang-hoi, also a professor at Ewha Womans University, countered—citing his own research—that South Korea’s climate is not strongly influenced by El Nino or La Nina.
Experts also urged caution in timing any assessment of impacts. Koo Ja-ho, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Yonsei University, and Park Jae-heung, a research professor at Seoul National University, noted that El Nino typically develops in summer and fall and peaks in winter. They said regional impacts such as temperature and precipitation should be evaluated based on the winter of December 2026 to February 2027, not May to July 2026.
Climate specialists warned that any El Nino developing on top of already elevated global temperatures could have broader effects than in the past.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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