OPEC, long a central force in global energy markets, is facing what the article describes as its biggest crisis in its 66-year history after the United Arab Emirates, the group’s third-largest producer, declared it will leave effective May 1. The move is being read as more than a single member’s departure, raising questions about a Saudi-led cartel structure that has anchored OPEC for decades.
The UAE’s decision follows economic and human losses tied to the recent Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but it also reflects long-running frustration with OPEC production cuts that have constrained the UAE’s ability to raise output. The article portrays the UAE as pursuing a pragmatic strategy to build national wealth by using its resources more aggressively as the energy landscape shifts.
If OPEC cohesion weakens, coordination on crude supply among members could erode. With the UAE holding significant spare capacity, an independent course could expand supply and, over time, contribute to lower and more stable oil prices, the article says. It adds that international oil prices, which had been rising again after U.S.-Iran talks on ending the war stalled, eased after news of the UAE’s planned exit.
For South Korea, which relies on imports for most of its energy needs, the development could bring relief. The article notes that since the Iran war began, oil prices have swung around the $100-a-barrel level as risks mounted, including the Strait of Hormuz closure and a U.S. maritime blockade, fueling domestic inflation and worsening the current account balance.
Still, the article argues South Korea should view the situation not only as a potential windfall from cheaper oil but as a chance to reshape strategic cooperation. As the influence of a dominant producers’ group weakens, buyers typically gain leverage, and South Korea’s manufacturing strengths — from semiconductors and defense to energy and autos — could support broader partnerships, it says.
The article highlights that the UAE has been accelerating cooperation with South Korea. It says the two countries agreed in February to large-scale cooperation projects totaling $65 billion, including defense. During the height of the Iran war last month, the UAE also promised an emergency supply of 24 million barrels of crude to South Korea, it adds. The Barakah nuclear power plant built by South Korea in the UAE is cited as a foundation for long-term energy cooperation. Outside OPEC, the UAE could pursue more aggressive infrastructure investment and industrial diversification, and South Korean technology and experience could be valuable in that process, the article says.
The article cautions, however, that risks remain, including volatility in oil and global financial markets and the possibility of intensified geopolitical friction as existing producers such as Saudi Arabia push back to protect their influence within OPEC.
It calls for South Korea to maintain friendly ties with other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, while deepening relations with the UAE. It also urges expanding contacts with countries where additional OPEC departures are being discussed, to secure practical benefits.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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