South Korea's AI and climate goals on collision course

 

Under an energy rationalization strategy released this week, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment aims to cut national energy consumption to 211 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) by 2029 from 212 million toe in 2024. Climate Minister Kim Sung-hwan described the shift as the foundation for "a transformation toward a carbon-free green civilization."

 

But the core drivers of Korea's AI goals demand the opposite direction.

 

SK Group and Amazon Web Services are pushing ahead with more than $5 billion in hyperscale data center investments. Each server requires up to four times the power of a conventional unit, while cooling needs run four to ten times higher to sustain heavy GPU workloads. Hyperscale facilities—warehouse-sized sites with upward of 5,000 to over a million servers—consume electricity equivalent to at least 100,000 households. A new facility under construction in Ulsan could demand twenty times that amount, according to industry estimates.
 

"The government's AI roadmap could derail on power shortages," Lee Young-tak, head of SK Telecom's growth support office, warned during a National Assembly forum in September.

 

The numbers suggest a significant mismatch. Korea's total generation capacity is roughly 109 gigawatts. Yet government data show the country will need 732 new data centers by 2029, requiring nearly 49 gigawatts of electricity—almost half of today's available capacity.

 

"That's equivalent to constructing 53 additional nuclear reactors," Lee said, arguing that such risks are absent in current policy planning.
  These projections do not include NVIDIA's more recent commitment to deliver an additional 260,000 GPUs to Korean customers. People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won noted that each high-end NVIDIA GPU draws roughly 1.4 kilowatts. The total would require around 400 megawatts—demanding dense power racks, advanced liquid-cooling systems, and high-speed networking infrastructure. She estimated this load alone would match the entire annual output of the Shin-Kori Unit 1 or Saewool Unit 1 reactor for six to twelve months.

 

The Yongin semiconductor cluster adds to the strain. Once fully operational, the cluster is expected to require 16 gigawatts, an amount equal to about 60 percent of the combined apparent capacity of the Seoul and Namseoul substations, according to the National Assembly Research Service.

 

Yet Korea's current grid struggles even with existing facilities. Among 318 power system impact assessment requests submitted to Korea Electric Power Corporation since August, only 21 received final approval as of September—a 6.6 percent success rate—according to PPP lawmaker Kim Sung-won. 
 
Infrastructure projects face chronic delays as well. A major high-voltage direct current line designed to move surplus power from the East Coast to the Seoul metropolitan area is seven years behind schedule due to local opposition. Transmission bottlenecks have forced coal plants in the Yeongdong region to operate at just 20 to 30 percent capacity despite available supply.

 

Layered onto these constraints is the government's reluctance to expand nuclear power. The energy ministry is pursuing a nuclear reduction policy focused on raising renewable capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2030. The Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has continued to postpone a restart decision for Kori Unit 2, despite the near-completed approval process. Ten large reactors will reach the end of their operating licenses by 2029.

 

Failing to extend those reactors could leave a power gap larger than Seoul’s annual electricity consumption by 2030—just as AI, semiconductor fabrication, and hyperscale data centers place unprecedented stress on the grid.