SEOUL, May 11 (AJP) — South Korea's inflation could run as high as 3.7 percent this year under the worst-case scenario of an energy shock from the Middle East crisis, according to state think tank Korea Development Institute on Monday.
The KDI, which is due to announce its revised economic outlook on Wednesday, predicted a bump-up of between 1 and 1.6 percentage points from this year’s estimated inflation rate of 2.1 percent.
The forecast, however, excludes policy buffers such as fuel tax cuts and gasoline price caps, said Ma Chang-seok, a fellow at the KDI’s Department of Economic Forecasting.
Under its “base scenario,” the KDI assumed Dubai crude prices would rise to $100 per barrel in the second quarter before gradually easing to $90 and $87 in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Under that scenario, higher oil prices would lift this year’s consumer inflation by 1.2 percentage points and next year’s by 0.9 percentage point.
Under a more severe “prolonged high oil price scenario,” where Dubai crude remains at around $105 per barrel from the second through fourth quarters, the inflationary impact would widen to 1.6 percentage points this year and 1.8 percentage points next year, raising the possibility that elevated inflation could persist into next year.
Conversely, under an “oil price stabilization scenario,” where Dubai crude falls from $95 in the second quarter to $85 and $80 in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, inflationary pressure would ease significantly starting next year, the KDI said.
The think tank specifically noted that oil price hikes caused by transportation uncertainty in energy supply routes tend to have a larger impact on consumer inflation than ordinary supply-demand driven increases. If concerns over shipping disruptions intensify, refiners often expand petroleum inventories, amplifying price hikes even under similar market conditions.
Accordingly, the KDI warned that cost-push pressure could spread beyond petroleum products to industrial goods and services. While ordinary increases in Dubai crude historically had limited impact on core inflation, a 10 percentage point oil increase driven by transportation uncertainty was estimated to raise the core inflation rate by approximately 0.10 percentage point.
“Policy responses such as the maximum oil price system and fuel tax cuts are factors that reduce the ripple effect of rising international oil prices on consumer inflation,” Ma said. “It is necessary to operate price stabilization policies in preparation for the possibility of prolonged high oil prices and unstable inflation expectations.”
As of Monday afternoon, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude futures were trading above $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump responded “Unacceptable” to Iran’s proposal for ending the war, reigniting fears of prolonged conflict and supply disruptions across the Middle East.
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