◆Ajou Economic Major News
▷Top 10 securities firms narrow profit gap with five major banks to just 1.1 trillion won
- Riding the wave of a booming stock market, securities firms have seen a surge in profits, closing the gap with banks and aiming for a position as the "absolute financial powerhouse." - The combined net profit of South Korea's top 10 securities firms (based on equity capital) for the first quarter is 4.33 trillion won. - This marks an increase of 2.30 trillion won (113.65%) compared to 2.07 trillion won during the same period last year. - The combined net profit of the five major banks for the first quarter of this year is 4.44 trillion won, leaving a difference of about 1.1 trillion won. - Notably, the top two firms in the securities industry, Mirae Asset Securities and Korea Investment & Securities, outperformed NH Nonghyup Bank (5.577 trillion won) and Woori Bank (5.312 trillion won). - The increase in brokerage revenue due to rising trading volumes and improved investor sentiment has been a key factor in this performance improvement.
◆Major Reports
▷[Cash Cow Strategy] KOSPI Now on Track for 10,000 Points [Hana Securities]
- Even without assuming a re-rating of the price-to-earnings ratio, if current profit estimates materialize, the KOSPI could enter the 10,000-point era. - The projected net profit for the KOSPI in 2026 is 689 trillion won, increasing to 853 trillion won by 2027. - Since 2010, the average price-to-earnings ratio for the KOSPI has been 9.96 times, meaning if the index reflects the 2027 net profit by the end of 2026, the KOSPI market capitalization could reach 8,499 trillion won (853 trillion won * 9.96 times). - This translates to an index value of 10,380 points (previously projected upper limit of 8,470 points). - If the capital expenditure growth rate in the S&P 500 tech sector falls below the WTI price increase rate, or if semiconductor profit estimates for the KOSPI are revised downward, the current index rise based on profit growth may come to an end. - Given the price surge due to war, the current level of oil prices is more likely a short-term overshoot than a long-term upward trend. - The increasing concentration around Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which account for 48% of the KOSPI market capitalization, could also be a concern. - However, the end of the tech bubble in 2000 showed that stock price overheating led to changes in the top market capitalization company, regardless of profit size. - On March 27-28, 2000, Cisco Systems, which held the top market cap in the S&P 500, had annual net profits that were only 20% of GE's and 28% of Microsoft's. - Another signal for the end of the current bull market based on profit growth would be if SK Hynix's market capitalization surpasses that of Samsung Electronics.
◆Major Disclosures After Market Close (15th)
▷HS Hynix Advanced Materials decides on a 29.6 billion won debt guarantee for its affiliate.
▷Dong Sung Pharmaceutical receives notice of completion of rehabilitation proceedings as of the 15th.
▷Jeong Ji-hye, Executive Director of Hyundai Mobis, acquires an additional 8,000 shares of Hyundai Elevator common stock.
▷Jahwa Electronics exercises exchange rights for 222,420 shares (worth 7.8 billion won) of exchangeable bonds.
▷Gwangmyeong Electric is sued for a provisional injunction allowing the exercise of voting rights by its largest shareholder.
◆Fund Trends (as of the 14th, excluding ETFs)
▷Domestic equity funds: +48 billion won
▷Overseas equity funds: -53.8 billion won
◆Key Schedule for Today (18th)
▷China: April housing price index, April real economy indicators (consumption, production, investment)
▷United States: May NAHB housing market index
* This article has been translated by AI.
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