Assessing public sentiment in Seoul is always challenging. The city serves as a microcosm of South Korean politics, yet it does not always follow national trends. While it can be a barometer for presidential elections, local elections tend to be surprisingly pragmatic. Voters prioritize practical governance over ideology and administrative promises over slogans. This makes predicting the outcome of the Seoul mayoral election particularly difficult.
A poll released on May 22, just 18 days before the June 3 local elections, highlights this characteristic of Seoul. Conducted by ResearchWell for New Daily from May 20 to 21, the survey of 977 adult residents in Seoul showed that Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party garnered 44.8% support, while Jung Won-o of the Democratic Party received 42.0%. The margin of just 2.8 percentage points falls within the margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, indicating a very tight race. However, in politics, the shift in momentum can be more significant than the numbers themselves.
What factors are influencing public sentiment in Seoul?
First, central political dynamics play a crucial role. Seoul is more affected by national politics than any other city in the country. Expectations for the president and government often reflect in local elections, but political controversies and fatigue can also quickly sway public opinion. Since the new administration took office, ongoing political issues and disputes may have led some voters to believe that the next mayor should be someone capable of effectively managing the city. While it is difficult to pinpoint a single issue that has shifted the race, the tension in national politics undeniably casts a shadow over the mayoral election.
Second, evaluations of the candidates themselves are significant. Jung Won-o remains strong among voters in their 40s and 50s, maintaining the Democratic Party's traditional support base. However, recent surveys indicate that a notable number of respondents feel he needs to provide further clarification regarding past allegations of violence, a signal that cannot be easily dismissed politically. In elections, moderate voters often react more sensitively to unresolved questions than to policy proposals. Regardless of the truth, how convincingly candidates address these concerns can significantly impact voter decisions.
Conversely, Oh Se-hoon benefits from the advantages of being the incumbent mayor and his administrative experience. Seoul is a vast urban center where issues such as transportation, housing, redevelopment, safety, and welfare directly affect citizens' lives. In such a city, the question of who can manage the administration most effectively often outweighs ideological considerations. The relative strength of Oh among voters in their 20s and 30s, as well as those over 70, appears to reflect this trend.
Nevertheless, the most critical factor remains that it is still too early to determine the outcome. The final week of the Seoul mayoral election is always decisive. There are more undecided voters than anticipated, and a single televised debate can shift the atmosphere. As fatigue from negative campaigning grows, there is a possibility that quiet voters may become more active.
What is clear is that this election does not favor any single candidate. The public sentiment in Seoul is carefully weighing the options presented by the candidates. Historically, Seoul voters have chosen practical governance over ideology and competence over rhetoric. In the end, citizens will ask themselves, "Who can be entrusted with the future of Seoul for the next four years?" as they cast their votes.
Thus, the Seoul election is not over until it is officially concluded.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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