As early voting for the 9th nationwide local elections takes place from May 29 to 30, attention is turning to the challenges of predicting election outcomes. A higher early voting turnout increases the variables affecting exit poll results announced on election day.
Exit polls are conducted by asking voters who they chose after they cast their ballots. The challenge arises from early voters, who do not participate in the exit polls conducted on election day. Therefore, early voters are not included in the sample for the exit polls conducted at polling places on June 3.
However, early voting results will not be entirely excluded from broadcasters' predictions. KBS, MBC, and SBS, the three major broadcasters, have formed a joint prediction survey committee, KEP, to conduct exit polls for the June 3 elections. KEP will carry out exit polls at 595 polling stations nationwide and will also conduct phone surveys of 28,500 early voters to estimate their preferences.
This means that election day voters will be surveyed at polling places, while early voters will be assessed through separate phone surveys. As early voting increases, relying solely on exit polls from election day becomes more challenging to gauge overall public sentiment.
The timing for the release of exit poll results is also established. According to KEP's guidelines for citing exit poll results, predictions for winning candidates and estimated vote percentages can be reported starting at 6:15 PM, 15 minutes after polls close on June 3.
Exit polls cannot be conducted during the early voting period. They can only be carried out outside polling places on election day, at least 50 meters away, in a manner that does not compromise the secrecy of the vote. Political parties, candidates, and general organizations are also prohibited from conducting exit polls on election day.
As early voting increases, the complexity of broadcasters' predictive surveys will inevitably rise. This is due to potential differences in political preferences, age demographics, and regional participation rates between election day voters and early voters. In particularly close races, how early voter preferences are estimated and incorporated could significantly impact the accuracy of predictions.
Early voting for the 9th nationwide local elections will take place on May 29 and 30 from 6 AM to 6 PM at polling stations across the country. Voters can participate in early voting at any location nationwide, regardless of their registered address.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.