According to Axios on May 28, U.S. officials believe that the Trump administration sees the potential for the Cuban government to collapse as early as this summer. However, President Trump has not authorized an invasion and reportedly prefers a peaceful transition of power.
The U.S. strategy primarily focuses on economic pressure. A senior official described this approach as "accelerationism," stating, "We are not trying to topple the regime immediately. There are stages to this." This suggests a strategy to destabilize the regime while keeping options open for response if chaos ensues.
Military responses are also being considered. Axios reported that the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees operations in the Caribbean, conducted a government-wide simulation exercise last month in preparation for the situation in Cuba. An official noted, "All options are on the table, but there are no plans for an invasion or any imminent action."
The Trump administration's concern about potential unrest this summer is linked to ongoing power shortages and food crises in Cuba. The combination of extreme heat, power outages, and food shortages could lead to large-scale protests.
Additionally, the Trump administration is targeting funding sources. On May 1, President Trump signed an executive order imposing secondary sanctions on companies dealing with the Cuban military-run conglomerate GAESA. Following this, Canadian mining company Sherritt International and shipping companies CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd reportedly ceased operations in Cuba.
Political and legal actions have also followed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the sanctions against GAESA as a key message of pressure on Cuba. The U.S. Department of Justice revealed that former Cuban National Assembly President Raúl Castro has been charged with conspiracy to commit murder and the killing of Americans in connection with the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown incident.
However, U.S. officials are cautious about interpretations suggesting imminent military intervention. This month, the U.S. announced a $100 million aid package for the Cuban people, which will be distributed through the Catholic Church and charitable organizations rather than the government.
The Cuban government views U.S. actions as an attempt to justify military intervention. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez claimed in an interview with Fox News that the U.S. and Secretary Rubio are manipulating public opinion to legitimize military action.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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