How US-Iran End of War Changes World Order
June 15, 2026 is highly likely to be recorded as a turning point in modern Middle Eastern history. On this day, US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations to end the war between the United States and Iran had reached a final settlement, which was officially confirmed by the Iranian government and the mediating nation, Pakistan. Both sides are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding on the end of the war in Switzerland on the 19th. The war, which lasted for 106 days since the United States and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities on February 28, has effectively come to an end.
A period of 106 days can be seen as either short or long. However, those 106 days were a time when decades of hostile relations between the US and Iran, Israel's security anxieties, sectarian conflicts in the Middle East, the international energy order, and the hegemonic rivalry between the US and China all collided at once. This war was not simply a military clash involving exchanges of missiles and drones, but a geopolitical collision condensing the core contradictions of 21st-century international politics.
The war is over, but history begins now. The true winners and losers of this war will be determined by what kind of order is established in the place where the gunfire has ceased.
106 Days of War, How It Started and How It Ended
The direct trigger for this war was a preemptive strike by the US and Israel. The US and Israel determined that Iran had practically reached the stage right before possessing nuclear weapons. Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency and analyses by Western intelligence agencies assessed that Iran had secured a significant level of highly enriched uranium.
From Israel's perspective, there were not many options. The moment Iran acquired nuclear weapons, the strategic balance in the Middle East would completely collapse. Since its founding, Israel has survived while constantly surrounded by hostile nations. Therefore, Iran's nuclear armament was not merely a security issue but a matter of national survival.
The US also decided that it could no longer neglect Iran's nuclear development. Since taking office, the Trump administration maintained the position that it would absolutely not tolerate Iran's nuclear armament. Ultimately, at the end of February, the US and Israel carried out massive airstrikes.
However, contrary to expectations, Iran did not collapse. Iran chose asymmetric warfare instead of direct frontal combat. Long-range missiles, drones, naval blockades, and proxy attacks utilizing pro-Iranian armed groups followed. With Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, pro-Iranian factions in Syria, and Shiite militias in Iraq all mobilizing, the front lines instantly expanded across the entire Middle East.
The world grew tense. In particular, as the Strait of Hormuz was virtually paralyzed, international oil prices skyrocketed and financial markets were engulfed in anxiety. When the strait, through which more than 20 percent of the world's crude oil cargo passes, was shaken, the entire Asian economic bloc suffered a shock.
But as time passed, the US, Iran, and Israel all began to realize the limitations of war. The US failed to topple the Iranian regime, and Iran failed to drive the US out of the Middle East. Israel also failed to secure complete security.
Eventually, all three countries came to acknowledge the reality that the cost of continuing the war had become far greater than the cost of seeking peace.
Netanyahu's Calculation, Between Victory and Burden
To understand this war, one cannot leave out Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu is a leader who has maintained the most hardline anti-Iran stance in history. For decades, he has argued that Iranian nuclear armament could bring about a second Holocaust.
In fact, Netanyahu achieved his goals to some extent in this war. Many of Iran's nuclear facilities were hit, and its military infrastructure also suffered heavy losses. Pro-Iranian proxy groups across the Middle East took significant damage as well.
However, it was not a complete victory.
Israel spent massive amounts on military expenditures, while tourism and investment shrank. Above all, the public began to feel fatigued by the endless war. What Israeli citizens want is not eternal war but stable daily lives.
Netanyahu ultimately chose reality. He adjusted his position to accept an agreement predicated on the abandonment of nuclear weapons and an international monitoring system. He found a balance between ideals and reality.
Trump's Real Target is Not Iran but China
The key to understanding this end of war is China. On the surface, it appears to be a war between the US and Iran, but China was on the minds of US strategists.
Today, the center of US national strategy is not the Middle East but the Indo-Pacific. What the US fears most is not Iran but the rise of China. US-China competition is unfolding in almost every strategic industry, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum technology, the space industry, electric vehicles, and rare earth supply chains.
From President Trump's perspective, a prolonged Middle East war is a strategic nightmare. If military power, diplomatic efforts, and finances are tied up in the Middle East, the US cannot focus on keeping China in check.
Therefore, this end of war can be seen not merely as a peace agreement but as a strategic redeployment for the US. It aims to settle Middle Eastern issues to some extent and shift the center of gravity to the Indo-Pacific.
The US has now entered an era where it considers semiconductors more important than oil. Trump's decision to end the war is a symbolic scene of such changing times.
What China and Russia Gained
An interesting point is that China and Russia were quieter than expected during this war.
China publicly called for peace but in reality played an important role as a pillar supporting the Iranian economy. China remains a major importer of Iranian crude oil.
China's goal was clear. It wanted the US to be tied down in the Middle East for a long time. The more the US exhausts its power in the Middle East, the more China can secure strategic space in East Asia.
The same went for Russia. Burdened by the war in Ukraine, Russia never viewed the diversion of US attention to the Middle East as a bad thing.
However, if the war were to be prolonged, the instability of the international crude oil market could grow excessively large. Eventually, China and Russia also came to want an end to the war at a certain level.
Country Named Iran and Temperament of Persians
Western nations often view Iran simply as a theocracy. However, that is a perspective that fails to understand Iran properly.
Iran is not just a simple country. Iran is the successor to Persian civilization.
Persia achieved one of the greatest civilizations in human history since the Achaemenid Empire founded by Cyrus the Great in the 6th century BC. Cyrus the Great, who liberated Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity, is still regarded today as a symbol of tolerance and inclusion.
Persians possess strong pride and historical consciousness. They distinguish themselves from the Arab world. Their language is different, their culture is different, and their historical identity is different.
The reason Iran was able to hold out until the end in this war was also not simply due to military power but because of this civilizational pride.
Iran is a country that chooses to endure pain rather than admit defeat. It has a unique spirit of patience and resistance formed through experiencing foreign invasions over thousands of years.
That is why the US ultimately abandoned its goal of collapsing the Iranian regime. It reaffirmed the fact that the country named Iran is not one that can be easily brought to its knees, even if it can be pressured militarily.
Impact on Korean Economy and Energy Market
South Korea is highly likely to become one of the direct beneficiaries of this end of war.
South Korea imports most of its energy. If crude oil and liquefied natural gas are not stably supplied from the Middle East, the South Korean economy will receive an immediate shock.
In particular, oil refining, petrochemicals, steel, shipbuilding, and automobile industries are closely linked to international oil prices. If the Strait of Hormuz is normalized, logistics costs will stabilize and the burden of energy costs is highly likely to decrease.
Above all, uncertainty in the financial market will decrease. It will also help stabilize exchange rates.
It could also have a positive impact on the semiconductor industry. This is because the stabilization of energy prices leads to the recovery of manufacturing competitiveness.
The South Korean economy is affected across its entire import and export structure even if crude oil prices move by just 10 dollars. In that regard, this end of war is not merely diplomatic news but a crucial variable for the South Korean economy.
Where Middle East is Heading
If this agreement is successfully implemented, the Middle East could enter a new era.
First, relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have the potential to become more stable. Second, the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world could be pursued again. Third, Middle Eastern economic development projects could begin in earnest. Fourth, the competition between China's Belt and Road Initiative and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor could also enter a new phase. Fifth, the Middle East gains the potential to transform from a land of war into a land of investment and technology.
Of course, numerous obstacles remain before such prospects become reality. Issues regarding nuclear verification, the lifting of sanctions, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels, and Israel's domestic politics still exist.
But at least for now, the gunfire has stopped.
Peace is Harder Than War
Humanity has experienced too many wars. From World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the Ukraine War, to this Iran War. History has constantly demonstrated the destructive instinct of human beings.
However, what advanced civilization was not war but peace.
War destroys cities, but peace builds them. War kills people, but peace saves them. War fosters hatred, but peace creates the future.
This 106-day war left many lessons. The US learned that it cannot change the Middle East through power alone, and Iran learned that it cannot achieve prosperity through resistance alone. Israel learned that it cannot be guaranteed eternal safety through military force alone.
Eventually, all three nations returned to the negotiation table.
That is the essence of international politics. War begins when negotiations fail, and negotiations resume when war fails.
The signing ceremony scheduled in Switzerland on June 19, 2026, is not a simple diplomatic event. It marks the conclusion of the war that lasted 106 days and the starting line for a new Middle Eastern order.
History is turning another page in the Middle East right now. Whether that page will become a chapter of peace or the prelude to another conflict remains unknown. But one thing is clear.
The sounds of gunfire and bombing that echoed for 106 days are coming to a halt.
And humanity is once again gaining the opportunity to choose peace over war. Seizing that opportunity is now the most important task given to the US, Iran, Israel, and the entire international community.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.
