Hungary has invested heavily in pro-natalist policies over the past 16 years, but recent reports indicate that the birth rate has once again declined. Experts suggest that cash incentives alone are insufficient to address the low birth rate issue.
On June 16, the BBC analyzed Hungary's birth promotion policies, stating, "Despite implementing one of the world's most aggressive pro-natalist policies, the impact on birth rates has been limited."
The report highlighted the case of a Hungarian couple who recently failed to conceive through in vitro fertilization (IVF). Under the government’s pro-natalist policy, they had committed to having two children and received an interest-free loan of 10 million forints (approximately $28,000).
However, as the deadline for having children approached without success, they faced the possibility of incurring additional penalties of 1.5 to 3.5 million forints ($4,200 to $9,800) in interest on top of the principal.
This program is a key initiative introduced by Prime Minister Viktor Orban's administration to tackle the low birth rate. Married heterosexual couples who pledge to have children are offered interest-free loans, housing subsidies, tax breaks, and car purchase grants. If they meet their commitments within a specified timeframe, their repayment obligations are reduced; failure to do so results in diminished benefits and additional interest payments.
Since the Orban government took office in 2010, these policies have been a central focus in addressing population decline, prioritizing increased birth rates over immigration.
Initially, the policies appeared to be effective, with Hungary's total fertility rate rising from 1.25 in 2010 to 1.59 in 2020. However, the rate has since declined again, with the total fertility rate recorded at 1.31 in 2025, showing little change from earlier figures. The BBC noted that Hungary was once viewed as a success story in combating low birth rates, but recent trends indicate a reversal.
Thomas Sobotka, a demographer at the Vienna Institute of Demography, told the BBC, "Based on policy goals, this is clearly a failure." He attributed the recent decline in birth rates not only to economic factors but also to uncertainty about the future and social anxiety.
Some analysts believe Hungary's policies may have helped mitigate the extent of the decline in birth rates. However, the BBC pointed out that financial support may not be the primary factor influencing decisions to have children.
According to the report, some Hungarian women express greater concern about healthcare services and childcare environments than about financial incentives. A 29-year-old woman living in Budapest, who is raising children, stated, "Improvements in education and healthcare systems should take precedence."
The BBC also referenced South Korea, which has invested over 400 trillion won in low birth rate policies since 2008, yet its total fertility rate is projected to drop to 0.8 by 2025. The report concluded that low birth rates are the result of complex social and cultural factors, not merely economic issues.
Experts highlighted examples from Nordic countries, emphasizing that institutional support such as parental leave, public childcare, flexible work arrangements, and a culture of gender-equal caregiving are crucial for creating a child-friendly environment.
The BBC assessed that Hungary's case illustrates both the effectiveness and limitations of pro-natalist policies. While short-term cash support may encourage earlier childbirth, it has not led to a sustained increase in birth rates.
Currently, the Hungarian government is reviewing its loan system and overall support policies based on birth commitments, according to the BBC.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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