According to market researcher Counterpoint Research, GenAI-capable handsets are forecast to make up 45 percent of global smartphone shipments in 2026, up from 36 percent from a year earlier.
The share is expected to climb to 52 percent in 2027, cementing the technology as a standard fixture across the market.
The momentum, however, is unfolding against a bleak backdrop. Counterpoint expects total shipments to tumble 13.9 percent from a year earlier to 1.08 billion units in 2026, the lowest annual volume since 2013, as surging memory prices squeeze the supply of budget devices and stunt growth across the board.
Mounting component costs are hollowing out the entry-level tier, the firm said, while premium GenAI models — better able to absorb the increases — tighten their grip. For the first time in years, buyers are likely to pay more for less.
"GenAI capability has become standard in high-end smartphones priced above $400 wholesale, but it has yet to give consumers a compelling reason to upgrade," said Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint.
A persistent gap remains between phones that can run GenAI and users who actively tap those features, Pathak added, arguing that closing it will require practical, everyday use cases that deliver lasting value.
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