Israel will hold elections on October 27, putting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long tenure to the test. Amid declining approval ratings due to the war in Gaza and tensions with Iran, this election is expected to be a pivotal moment for Netanyahu's political future.
According to reports from AFP and others on July 12, the Knesset (Israel's parliament) announced that it will complete its current term by July 17 and hold elections on the legally permitted final date of October 27.
The Knesset stated, "Since the current parliament will complete its term and the next election date is set by law, there is no need for a dissolution bill to shorten the parliamentary term."
This election will be the first since 1988 to be held on schedule. Netanyahu's government, which took office in December 2022, is also expected to be the first to complete its term since 1973.
Netanyahu has already announced his intention to run for re-election and expressed confidence in his victory. This will be his 12th time leading the Likud party into elections as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.
However, this election is likely to serve as a de facto referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. AFP has assessed that it could be a decisive moment that shapes his political career.
Netanyahu is expected to focus his election strategy on military operations against Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Last month, he stated, "I will form a broad national unity government that is neither right nor left," emphasizing security and national unity over ideological battles.
Recent polls, however, are not favorable for Netanyahu. A survey conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem showed his approval rating dropping from 40.5% in early March to 29.4% in June. Over 92% of respondents believe that Iran emerged victorious in the Middle Eastern conflict involving the U.S. and Israel.
Netanyahu also faces criticism for security failures related to the surprise attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on October 7, 2023. The prolonged war in Gaza, plans for post-war governance, and ongoing corruption trials against Netanyahu are key issues in the election.
The issue of military service obligations for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men could also influence the election outcome. Ultra-Orthodox parties have repeatedly warned of the possibility of withdrawing from the coalition if their supporters are not exempted from military service. In contrast, the Israel Defense Forces and many citizens argue that broad conscription is necessary due to a shortage of troops amid the ongoing conflict.
According to polling data from The Economist, the Likud party is likely to remain the largest party, but it is projected that Netanyahu's current coalition, which includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, will not secure a majority of the 120 seats in the Knesset.
In the opposition, Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett are seen as major challengers to Netanyahu. Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the IDF, participated in Netanyahu's wartime cabinet but resigned after criticizing the war strategy. After founding the Yashar party in 2025, he has gained support from both right-wing and centrist voters, showing an upward trend in polls.
Bennett, who has expressed disappointment with Netanyahu, is targeting right-wing voters who do not wish to shift to centrist or leftist positions. He has allied with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid to consolidate the opposition. Lapid and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman are also key figures in the opposition.
Israeli voters do not vote directly for a prime minister but cast their ballots for party lists. After the elections, the president will consult with each party to grant the authority to form a government to the politician most likely to create a majority coalition.
As a result, even if the Likud party secures the most seats in the election, Netanyahu's chances of continuing in office will depend on the outcomes of coalition negotiations following the election.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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