The real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, is entering a new phase driven by urban expansion and the resumption of major projects. As Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau are integrated into a single metropolitan area, the availability of land and supply has increased. However, market interest is shifting from short-term price increases to regions with infrastructure, job opportunities, legal stability, and genuine demand.
According to the '2026 Real Estate Forum' held by local online media TheLEADER on August 26, Nguyen Duc Thuan, president of the Vietnam Business Management Association, stated that the spatial integration of Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau has created a metropolitan area covering approximately 6,700 square kilometers with a population of over 14 million. He explained that the significance of this new urban space lies not merely in its size but in the combination of advanced industries, deep-sea ports, international logistics, finance, services, and skilled labor.
Experts at the forum noted that the competitiveness of the metropolitan area depends on how well infrastructure is connected. Key elements such as urban railways, ring roads, highways, ports, and airports are seen as essential to creating a super city. They emphasized the importance of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), which integrates residential, commercial, service, job, and public spaces around transportation hubs, rather than merely establishing new transport networks.
The expansion of Ho Chi Minh City has also contributed to lowering the average selling price in the housing market. Duong Tui Trung, head of CBRE Vietnam, reported that about 80% of new apartment supply in the first half of this year came from the Binh Duong area. The average price of first-phase apartments in existing Ho Chi Minh City was approximately 92 million VND (about $4,870) per square meter, while the overall average in the expanded market dropped to about 76 million VND (about $4,020) per square meter, showing a difference of 16 million VND (about $840).
For homebuyers, the expanded Ho Chi Minh market offers a wider range of options. The variety in location, product type, and price range has increased, allowing for broader choices than before. CBRE noted that the average price of secondary apartments is currently around 62 million VND per square meter. However, the decline in average prices is interpreted as a result of the inclusion of relatively affordable outer-region supply rather than a general market adjustment.
Industrial real estate is also identified as a major beneficiary of urban expansion. According to CBRE, the land available for industrial development could increase from about 2,500 hectares to over 15,000 hectares. This is expected to provide manufacturing companies and investors with more diverse location and rental options.
Investment hotspots are becoming more segmented based on infrastructure and functionality. Duong Tui Trung believes that TOD development areas around the Ben Thanh-Tham Luong urban railway line and the 3rd and 4th ring road axes could attract significant funding. He also pointed out that areas like Can Gio and Ho Tram, known for eco-tourism and marine cities, as well as the mid-range apartment market in northern growth axes such as Giang, Tuan An, and Tu Zhou Mot, still have growth potential.
Investment strategies are advised to shift from short-term trading to a focus on long-term value. Duong Tui Trung stated, "The market can only develop sustainably if actual housing demand for residence constitutes the majority." This indicates that urban expansion does not automatically lead to price increases across all areas; rather, value is formed in places supported by genuine demand and infrastructure.
Vietnam Housing Market Sees Increased Supply
Meanwhile, while the overall housing market in Vietnam has seen an increase in supply, prices have not significantly decreased. According to a report released last month by the Dat Xanh Service Economic Real Estate Institute (DXS-FERI), the northern region saw about 4,200 new units with an absorption rate of approximately 40%. Supply was concentrated in large projects in Hanoi, Hung Yen, and Quang Ninh, with major suppliers including Masterise Homes, MIK, Vinhomes, and Gamuda.
In contrast, the southern market exhibited a higher absorption rate than the north. DXS-FERI reported that the southern region had about 3,900 new units with an absorption rate of 58.6%. Supply was primarily focused on high-rise apartments, mostly located in the eastern expansion area of Ho Chi Minh City, particularly in Binh Duong and the former Tu Duc area. This region continues to play a pivotal role in the housing market's growth due to land acquisition, infrastructure, and relatively stable absorption rates.
The recovery in supply is also evident in the resumption of previously halted urban projects. Construction on One Central Saigon, located across from Ben Thanh Market, resumed in mid-March and is expected to be completed in about 30 months. The Grand Manhattan project is also accelerating construction as legal issues gradually resolve.
While the Ho Chi Minh metropolitan area has secured a broader land and supply base, not all regions will experience value increases at the same pace. The future focus of the market will likely be on which areas establish themselves as value centers with infrastructure, job opportunities, genuine demand, and legal stability.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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