As the likelihood of an exceptionally strong El Niño developing by the end of the year increases, the Pacific is experiencing an unusual phenomenon with three powerful hurricanes and tropical depressions occurring simultaneously.
Concerns are rising that El Niño, which accelerates global warming and influences storm development, could lead to significant changes in global temperatures and precipitation patterns this winter and beyond.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on September 3 that there is a 100% probability of El Niño conditions from September to November this year. The organization also forecasts a 100% chance that El Niño will continue from December through February of next year. The WMO stated, "There is no expectation of a return to neutral or La Niña conditions," predicting that the intensity of El Niño will gradually increase, peaking at a very strong level by the end of the year. A very strong El Niño could lead to greater variability in temperatures and precipitation worldwide.
Indeed, the Pacific has already seen a series of strong storms influenced by El Niño. According to Yonhap News, on September 2 (local time), Category 4 hurricanes Lowell and Karina, along with a tropical depression named Mari that could develop into a hurricane, were observed simultaneously in the Pacific.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Lowell and Karina to pass near the Hawaiian Islands. Notably, Lowell may approach the westernmost islands of Hawaii, drawing attention to its future path. Mari is strengthening south of Baja California, Mexico, and the NHC predicts it could develop into a hurricane.
Experts attribute the simultaneous occurrence of these unusual storms to warmer ocean waters. Warm seawater provides energy for storms, and El Niño reduces the difference in upper and lower winds over the Pacific, creating favorable conditions for hurricane development.
A climate scientist from the University of Michigan told AFP, "It is indeed rare to see three tropical depressions forming in succession," explaining that the warming caused by El Niño has created an environment conducive to powerful storms. Similar occurrences were noted during the strong El Niño of 2015, when multiple typhoons and hurricanes formed simultaneously in the Pacific.
The intensity of El Niño is also noteworthy. Yonhap News reported that, according to the WMO, sea surface temperatures in the El Niño and La Niña monitoring area were 1.5 degrees Celsius above average from May to July, and in July, they were 2.0 degrees higher than normal. Additionally, from late July to mid-August, the difference reached 2.2 to 2.6 degrees. The meteorological agency also reported that from August 23 to 29, temperatures were 2.6 degrees above average.
When sea surface temperatures exceed 2 degrees above average, it is informally referred to as a "super El Niño." Some climate prediction models anticipate that by November, sea surface temperatures in the monitoring area could be as much as 3.9 degrees higher than average. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also estimates a 69% chance that this year's El Niño will be the strongest on record.
The concern is that El Niño can trigger not only storms but also widespread extreme weather, including heatwaves and droughts. The WMO forecasts an 86% chance that one of the next five years, from 2023 to 2030, will break the record for the hottest year, with next year being the most likely candidate for this record.
South Korea may also be affected. When El Niño occurs, the country tends to experience higher temperatures and increased precipitation during the peak winter season. However, the country's temperature and precipitation are influenced by various factors, including sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, as well as Arctic sea ice, making it difficult to attribute weather changes solely to El Niño.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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