The government has released preliminary findings on the economic impact of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), raising concerns about how effectively the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries can mitigate potential damage to agriculture and fisheries. Unlike the anticipated macroeconomic and manufacturing growth, a decline in agricultural and fishery production is expected, making the scale and effectiveness of the government's proposed countermeasures critical.
According to the preliminary economic impact report released on the 28th, South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to be 0.38 percentage points higher ten years after the CPTPP takes effect compared to a scenario without membership.
The effects vary by industry. Manufacturing is expected to see an average annual increase of 6.3 trillion to 6.7 trillion won over 15 years post-implementation, with small and medium-sized enterprises contributing 1.1 trillion to 1.2 trillion won of that total. In contrast, agricultural production is projected to decrease by an average of 710 billion won, fisheries by 81.7 billion won, and forestry by 60.6 billion won during the same period. Overall, the agricultural and fisheries sectors are expected to experience an average annual production decline of about 850 billion won.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs faces the challenge of determining whether existing free trade agreement (FTA) support systems can adequately address the anticipated agricultural damage or if additional measures are necessary. These figures are preliminary estimates, and the actual impact will depend on the specific levels of market access negotiated and domestic and international market conditions. During the upcoming National Assembly audit, it will be essential to assess how the ministry has analyzed the effects of additional market access for sensitive items such as rice, livestock products, and fruits, whether existing compensation systems can address the damage, and if new funding will be required.
Particularly amid backlash from the agricultural sector, how the government incorporates stakeholder feedback will be crucial. On the 21st, 75 agricultural and fisheries organizations launched an emergency committee to oppose CPTPP membership and called for a halt to discussions. The government is expected to gather opinions on the impact assessment results during a meeting hosted by the committee.
The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries faces similar challenges. While the projected decline in fishery production is smaller than in agriculture, issues such as tariff elimination and the impact of tax-exempt fuel for fishing are additional variables. The controversy surrounding the import of seafood from Fukushima, Japan, complicates the situation, making it difficult to approach the issue solely as a matter of import competitiveness. The ministry plans to hold discussions on tariff elimination, potential restrictions on fishery subsidies, and the Fukushima seafood issue with key fishing organizations on the 29th.
The government has not yet made a decision on whether to join the CPTPP. At a meeting of the Foreign Economic Ministers last month, officials stated they would not preemptively conclude on membership but would gather stakeholder opinions to assess whether it would benefit national interests and livelihoods.
The comprehensive land survey is also expected to be a contentious topic during the audit, particularly regarding the scope and rationale for the survey. According to the National Assembly's Legislative Research Service, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs initially proposed surveying 1.15 million hectares this year but expanded the target to 1.36 million hectares in its second-half work plan released in July. The audit will likely focus on the reasons behind the increase of 210,000 hectares in just two months, the policy rationale for initiating a large-scale survey following a presidential directive, and how the survey results will inform future land policies.
Most importantly, the lack of a clear policy direction on how to manage the land post-survey remains a significant issue. There is a need to clarify how the identified land will be allocated to actual cultivators and young farmers, and how much additional capacity the land bank can accommodate. The 2024 amendment to the Land Act mandates the Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs to establish a 'basic plan for land management' every ten years, but this has yet to be developed. Therefore, the audit is expected to raise critical questions about how the survey results will be integrated into a long-term land management framework.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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