[위기의 제조업] 반도체만 '맑음'…내수 부진·비용 상승에 11월 경기 기대감 '뚝'
South Korea's exports have reached record highs, yet expectations for a recovery in the overall manufacturing sector appear to be weakening. While the semiconductor industry continues to thrive due to increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI), other key manufacturing sectors are struggling with sluggish domestic demand, rising costs, and intensified global competition.
According to the Industrial Research Institute's October 2026 Manufacturing Outlook Survey released on the 25th, the November manufacturing outlook index (PSI) dropped to 102, down 11 points from the previous month’s 113. Although it remains above the baseline of 100, expectations for economic improvement have significantly declined in just one month.
The PSI is a measure derived from surveys of experts across major domestic industries regarding their economic assessments. A score above 100 indicates a consensus that conditions will improve compared to the previous month.
Key indicators for manufacturing outlook also showed a general decline. The domestic outlook PSI for November fell to 101, down 10 points from the previous month, while the export outlook dropped to 107, a decrease of 11 points. The production level outlook plummeted from 119 to 102, a drop of 17 points. Profitability expectations, which reflect corporate earnings, fell from 103 to 91, dipping below the baseline.
There were notable disparities among sectors. The semiconductor outlook PSI rose to 159, an increase of 15 points from the previous month, driven by growing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) due to increased investments in AI infrastructure by major global tech companies.
In contrast, the automotive sector saw a dramatic decline, with its PSI dropping from 123 to 93, a decrease of 30 points. The mobile phone sector fell from 100 to 53, a staggering drop of 47 points. The chemical sector also decreased from 106 to 89, while the machinery and materials sectors recorded PSIs of 97 and 95, respectively, both below the baseline.
Recent export figures also reflect these sectoral disparities. While semiconductor exports surged, the benefits have not been evenly distributed across the manufacturing sector. According to the Korea Customs Service, South Korea's exports reached $121.05 billion last month, surpassing $120 billion for the first time on a monthly basis.
Among these, semiconductor exports amounted to $60.53 billion, marking the first time a single item exceeded $60 billion in monthly exports. Conversely, exports of passenger cars (-5.6%), wireless communication devices (-1.5%), and home appliances (-7.6%) all experienced declines.
The challenges facing the manufacturing sector are multifaceted. According to the Bank of Korea's September Business Survey, the manufacturing business sentiment index (CBSI) fell to 99.5, down 4.3 points from the previous month. The primary concerns cited by manufacturers included sluggish domestic demand (21.2%) and rising raw material prices (20.9%).
[저PBR 망신주기 D-7]대기업 투자 지표…현대제철·이마트 '낙인' 피할까
The Korea Exchange is set to release its list of low PBR (price-to-book ratio) companies in just one week. Major corporations such as Hyundai Steel and E-Mart are under scrutiny as they rank among the lowest in their respective sectors.
Based on investment indicators from the Korea Exchange's listing disclosure system, a comparison of PBRs at the end of 2024, 2025, and June 2023 shows that a total of 224 companies have consistently ranked in the bottom tier across these three time points.
In the KOSPI market, 132 companies are included in the bottom 25% by sector, while 92 companies in the KOSDAQ market fall within the bottom 10%. Hyundai Steel (0.19 times as of June 2023), Lotte Chemical (0.20 times), E-Mart (0.17 times), and Hanwha Life (0.21 times) are all below their sector's thresholds and are expected to be classified as low PBR companies for the end of 2024 and 2025 as well.
The exchange will publicly disclose the low PBR company list for the first time on November 2. Companies that fall within the bottom 25% in the KOSPI market and the bottom 10% in the KOSDAQ market over six consecutive quarters will be included. Selected companies will be listed on the exchange's disclosure system and will also be marked in securities firms' home trading systems (HTS) and mobile trading systems (MTS).
Companies that submit a PBR improvement plan by October 22 will generally be exempt from disclosure for one year. According to the exchange's data, 62 companies submitted plans, including 34 from the KOSPI market and 28 from the KOSDAQ market. Of these, 46 companies submitted their plans by the deadline. However, Hyundai Steel, E-Mart, Lotte Chemical, and Hanwha Life have not submitted any PBR improvement plans by the deadline. It remains uncertain whether these companies will ultimately be included in the list. The first disclosure will also apply a special exemption for companies that exceed their sector's PBR threshold as of October 22.
北, 韓 정부·금융 겨냥 PHP 공격 준비 마무리...제조·물류·항공도 타깃
Korean-speaking hackers believed to be linked to North Korea have been confirmed to be preparing attacks exploiting serious security vulnerabilities in the PHP programming language. They have compiled a primary target list that includes South Korea as the top priority.
On the 25th, Singapore-based cybersecurity analysis firm Cyfirma reported that two Korean-speaking operators were observed discussing their plans in a private channel on the anonymous network I2P from 11 a.m. to 11:31 a.m. on October 22.
The conversation included specific operational guidelines. The operators instructed that they would quietly gather information about the PHP version exposed by servers without conducting large-scale scans and avoid targets that appeared to have strong security monitoring. Servers that completed security updates on October 21 were marked to be excluded from their attack list.
They planned to reuse publicly available proof-of-concept attack codes rather than creating new ones, prioritizing them based on effectiveness using their own AI, and validating them in controlled testing environments. The conversation shared addresses (IP) for 15 attack preparation servers.
Targets are categorized into three tiers. The top tier includes government agencies and financial institutions in South Korea, the United States, Japan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the European Union (EU), Thailand, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia. The second tier includes manufacturing, logistics, shipping, and airport sectors, while the third tier encompasses online payment and trading platforms, as well as construction companies.
The most likely method of infiltration involves cleverly manipulating requests to upload files to servers, allowing commands to be executed without logging in. Locations using Apache web servers with PHP as the default connection method are considered the most vulnerable. Various attacks are anticipated, including server access rights sales, cryptocurrency theft, ransomware preparations, and account information theft. There may also be state-sponsored information gathering activities.
Cyfirma has identified that these operators have been active in the same channel since March of this year. Even after the PHP development team released a security update on October 21, they continued to refine their target list by filtering out updated servers. Cyfirma has indicated that the first draft of the target list will be reviewed on the 25th.
PHP2Shell has already become a target among general hackers. Amazon's security team detected the first attack attempt on October 17, and Cloudflare reported that there were millions of attack attempts by October 22.
Given that South Korea is the top priority target, prompt government action is essential. There is an urgent need for the government to conduct a comprehensive inspection of public and financial servers using PHP versions 8.1 and below, which no longer receive official security updates, and to support updates or external network separations.
반포서 현실화하는 재초환… '누가 내느냐' 따라 수억원 차이
The reconstruction profit recovery system (reconstruction excess profit recovery system) is becoming a reality in Seoul's reconstruction market, with an estimated burden of approximately 2.17 trillion won. The anticipated target complexes number 46, involving around 17,800 members. Notably, 25 complexes are concentrated in the three districts of Gangnam, with some complexes in Banpo already undergoing the actual burden assessment process, while others have seen expected burdens reflected in transaction prices, making the recovery system a key variable in housing transactions.
According to the construction industry on the 25th, the Banpo Centerville Asterium, which was reconstructed from the Banpo Hyundai Apartment, is currently undergoing procedures to impose reconstruction burden fees. This represents a significant case of the recovery system moving into the actual imposition phase in the Gangnam area. The Banpo Hyundai association has recently submitted development cost data for the assessment of the reconstruction burden and is demanding improvements in the method for calculating normal housing price increases to respond to the imposition process.
In contrast, nearby units in the Raemian Trinione complex have shown price discrepancies of several hundred million won based on whether the seller or buyer assumes the reconstruction burden. Recently, listings for 84 square meter units have appeared at prices of 5.15 billion won and 5.7 billion won, with the higher-priced unit reflecting the seller's assumption of the reconstruction burden, while the lower-priced unit indicates that the buyer will bear the future burden.
The estimated total reconstruction burden for Raemian Trinione is approximately 514.9 billion won, which translates to an average burden of about 318 million won per member based on 1,620 members. However, the final burden will be determined after reflecting project costs, housing prices, and normal housing price increases, followed by verification from the relevant local government and agencies.
A total of 46 complexes in Seoul are expected to face reconstruction burden assessments this year, involving around 17,800 members and an estimated total burden of about 2.17 trillion won. Of these, 25 complexes are located in the three districts of Gangnam, with 9 in Seocho-gu, 8 in Gangnam-gu, and 8 in Songpa-gu.
Starting with Banpo Centerville Asterium, other reconstruction complexes in Seocho-gu, such as Shinbanpo 18th and Shinbanpo 21st, are also likely to sequentially enter the burden assessment and imposition process.
Associations are also expressing their opposition. They argue that there is a significant gap between the method for calculating normal housing price increases and actual market prices, and imposing burdens of several hundred million won on unrealized development profits is excessive. Some associations have indicated that they may pursue legal action, such as administrative lawsuits, if actual imposition orders are issued. Concerns have also been raised that the reconstruction profit recovery system could impact the speed of redevelopment projects and housing supply, as larger burdens could increase the financial strain on members, potentially delaying decision-making on reconstruction in less viable projects.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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