As the counting of votes from the U.S. midterm elections held on November 3 continues, Japan is closely monitoring the results. Depending on the outcome, President Donald Trump's policy direction in his second term could change, potentially impacting Japan's foreign relations, security, and overall economy. Observers in Japan suggest that if the Republican Party loses its majority in Congress, Trump may rush to achieve diplomatic successes, which could increase Japan's burdens.
The Japanese government maintains that the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance remains unchanged. Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi stated at a press conference on November 2, "Regardless of the election results, a strong U.S.-Japan alliance is essential for maximizing Japan's national interests and ensuring peace and stability in the international community."
However, Japan's internal concerns are more complex. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has positioned her close relationship with Trump as a cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy. According to a source familiar with Takaichi's diplomatic policies, "Japan's presence in the world increases because we can engage with President Trump on equal footing." Yet, another government official expressed concern that if the Democrats control either the House or Senate, uncertainty regarding U.S. policies would grow.
Trump May Turn to Foreign Policy to Navigate Domestic Political Challenges
This concern stems from the possibility that Trump may seek to overcome domestic political challenges through foreign policy. With rising living costs due to the Iran conflict, the Republican Party is struggling, and if the Democrats gain control of the House, budget and legislative processes could become more difficult, leading to intensified congressional investigations targeting the administration. David Shear, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, told Asahi Shimbun that Trump "has ample opportunity to shift his focus to foreign policy, an area where he can achieve success with fewer congressional constraints."
Shear's primary concern is a potential summit involving the leaders of the U.S., China, and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a meeting coinciding with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in mid-November, to which Trump has responded positively. Shear noted that the three leaders could discuss a wide range of issues, including not only Ukraine but also the situations in the Middle East and East Asia, suggesting that Trump may give the impression of preferring cooperation with authoritarian leaders over allies, which could alarm middle powers.
Asahi predicts that this could lead to a scenario where major powers prioritize their national interests, potentially jeopardizing the fates of smaller nations. This situation could place Japan, which relies solely on the U.S. as its ally while facing deteriorating relations with China and Russia, in a more precarious position. The issue of China is also a concern. According to Asahi, voices within the Japanese government are suggesting that Japan may need to adjust its China policy in response to changes in the U.S. ahead of two scheduled U.S.-China summits later this year.
The Taiwan issue is particularly sensitive for Japan. After visiting China in May and meeting with President Xi Jinping, Trump referred to arms sales to Taiwan as a "very effective bargaining chip" and has withheld approval for a $14 billion arms package. Reuters notes that if China seizes this opportunity to intensify its pressure on Taiwan, it could become a critical issue for Japan. Another source from the Prime Minister's office remarked to Reuters that for Trump, the Taiwan issue is merely a card in U.S.-China diplomacy, suggesting he may be willing to make various concessions.
Concerns are also rising that Japan's key issues regarding North Korea may be sidelined. Another Japanese government official mentioned that Trump might seek to engage with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in pursuit of a Nobel Peace Prize, potentially pushing for a complete end to the Korean War. Reuters reported that in such a scenario, negotiations could involve only major powers like China and Russia, raising uncertainties about how much the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and Japan's priority issue of abductions would be addressed. Kazuhiko Maeshima, a professor at Chuo University, predicted that if U.S.-North Korea talks resume, the U.S. might effectively tolerate North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
Security uncertainties could also lead to increased costs. Maeshima analyzed that Trump might demand additional defense burdens from Japan and South Korea to showcase his achievements, while also pressuring Japan to expedite its promised $55 billion investment in the U.S. He told Reuters, "The discussion about tariffs is not over. If Japan's actions are delayed, the issue of additional tariffs could resurface," adding that as long as security remains hostage, investments and defense spending will have to be managed within limited bounds.
A change in congressional majority could also hinder Trump's policies. Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute, noted that if the Democrats gain control of the House, it could increase the political burden of additional tariffs and block further budget requests related to the Iran conflict. However, he pointed out that if Trump takes unilateral action through executive orders, predictability for Japan could decrease.
Japan's Economy Also at Risk
If the Democrats gain control of Congress, Japan's economy could be affected through exchange rates and AI demand. Kiuchi suggested that if congressional checks limit U.S. fiscal expansion, fiscal risks would decrease, boosting confidence in the dollar. A stronger dollar could weaken the yen, increasing inflationary pressures in Japan. Additionally, if the Trump administration's AI development legislation stalls and state-led regulations expand, the enthusiasm for U.S. AI investment could cool, putting pressure on Japan's related exports and stock market. In this case, while investors might buy yen to avoid risk, if the yen appreciates and stock prices fall sharply, it could backfire on the Japanese economy.
So, how should Japan respond? The prescriptions can be broadly divided into two approaches: strengthening connections within the U.S. Congress and expanding cooperation with like-minded countries abroad. Kiuchi advised that regardless of the election outcome, Japan should enhance its networks with both the administration and Congress, while Asahi emphasized the need to prepare for the emergence of "great power politics" and to work with European and Southeast Asian nations to rebuild a liberal international order.
However, the immediate priority is to persuade President Trump. A Japanese government official told Reuters that Japan must strongly convey its position regarding the East Asian order, including Taiwan, stating, "Now more than ever, we need to communicate our stance to the U.S.", though it remains uncertain whether Trump will heed that message.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.