The Democratic Party's control of both chambers of Congress following the midterm elections may signal a new phase in U.S.-China tensions surrounding Taiwan. President Donald Trump has shown flexibility in negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but the Democratic majority could increase pressure on the administration regarding sensitive issues like arms sales to Taiwan.
According to Chinese experts cited by mainland and Chinese-language media on November 5, the midterm election results could intensify U.S.-China conflicts over Taiwan. Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University's Institute of International Studies, stated, "While the Democratic victory may not fundamentally change U.S. strategy toward China, it could lead to increased pressure on issues like Taiwan, artificial intelligence (AI), and high-tech export controls." He identified the proposed $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan as a key point of contention.
Trump mentioned in May that he discussed the arms sale during a summit with Xi, indicating he had withheld approval to use it as a "bargaining chip" in negotiations with China. This approach raised concerns among security experts in Taiwan and the U.S. about linking arms sales to U.S.-China relations. However, with the Democrats now in control, the situation may shift. Democratic lawmakers could pressure the administration to expedite arms sales to Taiwan or advance related legislation.
Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, noted, "While the Democratic control of Congress may not immediately and destructively impact U.S.-China relations, arms sales to Taiwan could become an exceptional point of conflict." He added that U.S. lawmakers have long expressed dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's delays in arms sales to Taiwan.
The Taiwan issue is a core interest for China. Xi warned Trump during their May summit in Beijing that mishandling the Taiwan issue could jeopardize U.S.-China relations. Should the U.S. resume arms sales to Taiwan, China is likely to respond strongly and escalate military tensions. Even if both countries find some compromise in trade and tariffs, tensions in the Taiwan Strait could rise again.
Denis Simon, a senior researcher at the Quincy Institute in the U.S., predicted that conflicts could arise between the White House and Congress over three areas: arms sales to Taiwan, semiconductors and AI, and Chinese investments in the U.S. He stated, "Achieving the 'constructive strategic stability relationship' that China seeks with the U.S. will become increasingly difficult."
With Trump's authority and effectiveness diminished following the midterm elections, analysts suggest Xi may seek to leverage this situation. Sol Isdale, an economist at Corinna Economic Consulting in Australia, remarked, "Xi will consider how to utilize the changed circumstances, while Trump will have less room to make concessions to China." Shen Yi, a professor at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs, noted that the midterm elections have added complexity and uncertainty to U.S.-China relations, but he cautioned that a change in congressional power alone may not lead to direct policy shifts.
Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular briefing on November 4 that China is willing to uphold and implement the important agreements reached by the leaders of both countries, aiming to develop a 'constructive strategic stability relationship' based on mutual respect and fairness.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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