◆아주경제 주요뉴스
▷AIDC 규제 현실화? '반도체 겨울' 예고했던 모건스탠리, 삼전닉스 목표가 확 낮췄다
-Global investment bank Morgan Stanley, known for its negative outlook on South Korean semiconductor firms, has significantly lowered its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The firm previously warned of a 'semiconductor winter' in a report during the memory semiconductor boom of 2021, which impacted the stock prices of both companies. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley predicts that the profitability of these firms will decline after 2028 due to delays in investments caused by AI data center regulations following the Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. midterm elections.
-On November 10, financial investment industry sources reported that Morgan Stanley adjusted its target price for Samsung Electronics from 381,000 won to 309,000 won, a 19% decrease. The target price for SK Hynix was cut from 2.6 million won to 1.6 million won, a 38% reduction. However, the investment ratings for both companies remain at 'overweight.'
-Sean Kim, the Morgan Stanley analyst who authored the report, is often referred to as the 'grim reaper' of the semiconductor industry in South Korea. He has previously issued warnings about the semiconductor market downturn in reports published in August 2021 and September 2024, leading to significant reductions in target prices for Samsung and SK Hynix.
-His predictions have generally proven accurate. Following the release of the 'Memory, Winter is Coming' report in August 2021, the memory semiconductor market entered a downturn, with Samsung and SK Hynix's stock prices falling by 22.7% and 16.8%, respectively, a year later. After the 'Winter is Coming' report in September 2024, signs of a market slowdown emerged, particularly in the general memory sector. However, during that period, the stock prices of Samsung and SK Hynix experienced a brief decline before rising again a year later.
◆주요 리포트
▷세계 경제 전망의 최대 도전은 인플레이션과 금리, 그리고 부채 [하나증권]
-The biggest challenges for the global economy in 2027 are expected to be inflation, interest rates, and debt. Demand for AI-related infrastructure investment is anticipated to drive growth, with fixed investment expanding. Tensions in the Middle East and energy-related inflation are expected to ease somewhat. The South Korean economy is projected to benefit from the global AI cycle, leading to notable export increases and gradual recovery in domestic demand.
-Concerns about fiscal health and debt issues in major advanced economies are resurfacing alongside rising long-term interest rates. The likelihood of a repeat of the European debt crisis or sudden stops due to current threats is considered low. However, as interest rates exceed levels seen during the global financial crisis, questions about the safety and sustainability of accumulated debt are becoming more pressing.
◆펀드 동향(9일 기준, ETF 제외)
국내주식형 -7774억원
해외주식형 -856억원
◆오늘(11일) 주요일정
유럽: 라가르드 유럽중앙은행 총재 연설
미국: 석유수출국기구(OPEC) 월간 보고서
▷AIDC 규제 현실화? '반도체 겨울' 예고했던 모건스탠리, 삼전닉스 목표가 확 낮췄다
-Global investment bank Morgan Stanley, known for its negative outlook on South Korean semiconductor firms, has significantly lowered its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The firm previously warned of a 'semiconductor winter' in a report during the memory semiconductor boom of 2021, which impacted the stock prices of both companies. In a recent report, Morgan Stanley predicts that the profitability of these firms will decline after 2028 due to delays in investments caused by AI data center regulations following the Democratic Party's victory in the U.S. midterm elections.
-On November 10, financial investment industry sources reported that Morgan Stanley adjusted its target price for Samsung Electronics from 381,000 won to 309,000 won, a 19% decrease. The target price for SK Hynix was cut from 2.6 million won to 1.6 million won, a 38% reduction. However, the investment ratings for both companies remain at 'overweight.'
-Sean Kim, the Morgan Stanley analyst who authored the report, is often referred to as the 'grim reaper' of the semiconductor industry in South Korea. He has previously issued warnings about the semiconductor market downturn in reports published in August 2021 and September 2024, leading to significant reductions in target prices for Samsung and SK Hynix.
-His predictions have generally proven accurate. Following the release of the 'Memory, Winter is Coming' report in August 2021, the memory semiconductor market entered a downturn, with Samsung and SK Hynix's stock prices falling by 22.7% and 16.8%, respectively, a year later. After the 'Winter is Coming' report in September 2024, signs of a market slowdown emerged, particularly in the general memory sector. However, during that period, the stock prices of Samsung and SK Hynix experienced a brief decline before rising again a year later.
◆주요 리포트
▷세계 경제 전망의 최대 도전은 인플레이션과 금리, 그리고 부채 [하나증권]
-The biggest challenges for the global economy in 2027 are expected to be inflation, interest rates, and debt. Demand for AI-related infrastructure investment is anticipated to drive growth, with fixed investment expanding. Tensions in the Middle East and energy-related inflation are expected to ease somewhat. The South Korean economy is projected to benefit from the global AI cycle, leading to notable export increases and gradual recovery in domestic demand.
-Concerns about fiscal health and debt issues in major advanced economies are resurfacing alongside rising long-term interest rates. The likelihood of a repeat of the European debt crisis or sudden stops due to current threats is considered low. However, as interest rates exceed levels seen during the global financial crisis, questions about the safety and sustainability of accumulated debt are becoming more pressing.
◆펀드 동향(9일 기준, ETF 제외)
국내주식형 -7774억원
해외주식형 -856억원
◆오늘(11일) 주요일정
유럽: 라가르드 유럽중앙은행 총재 연설
미국: 석유수출국기구(OPEC) 월간 보고서
* This article has been translated by AI.
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