Japan's government is preparing to include a plan to consider the introduction of nuclear-powered submarines in its revised security documents, known as the 'Security Three Documents,' due by the end of the year. If included, the decision to pursue nuclear submarines would become an official security issue for the government. However, this time, the wording will not explicitly state 'introduction,' as the government plans to assess costs and benefits before making a final decision. Earlier, South Korea's Ministry of National Defense announced a basic plan for developing nuclear submarines, aiming to launch its first by the mid-2030s.
According to the Asahi Shimbun on November 11, two options are being discussed within the Japanese government for the wording to be included in the revised documents: one stating that the government will 'begin investigations and research' into nuclear submarines, and another indicating that it will 'review and reach a conclusion' on the introduction.
'Nuclear-powered' refers to submarines powered by a reactor, which is separate from the capability to carry nuclear weapons. The reactor allows these submarines to operate longer and travel farther than diesel submarines. The Asahi reports that there are plans within the Japanese government to assign patrol missions to nuclear submarines, considering China's expansion in the Pacific, and to equip them with long-range missiles for counterattack capabilities. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi also stated during a lecture in Tokyo on November 3 that discussions should include 'nuclear power as an option' for future submarines.
The challenges lie in the costs and time involved. According to the Asahi, constructing a single nuclear submarine is estimated to cost around 1 trillion yen (approximately $8.4 billion). To maintain a constant operational presence, at least three submarines would be necessary. Simple calculations suggest that construction costs alone would total about 3 trillion yen, with additional maintenance costs. There are concerns that it could take over a decade to introduce them, and developing specialized personnel is also a challenge. Additionally, the government must ensure that this does not violate the Atomic Energy Basic Law, which stipulates the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began discussions with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, on revising the Security Three Documents on November 10. The political landscape has changed significantly since four years ago. When the documents were created in 2022, the then-coalition partner, Komeito, often hindered defense enhancements. Now, the Japan Innovation Party has taken Komeito's place and is pushing for a swift introduction of nuclear submarines, while the LDP has become the more cautious party. In a proposal made in June, the LDP only suggested using 'next-generation power' for submarines without mentioning nuclear power.
According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Japan Innovation Party is insisting that all of its proposals be fully reflected in the discussions. However, a defense-focused LDP lawmaker cautioned that the Japan Innovation Party, having recently become a ruling party and holding fewer seats, cannot voice its opinions on equal footing with the LDP. The Yomiuri noted that the outcome ultimately depends on the Prime Minister's office, which is closer to the Japan Innovation Party, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara is reportedly supportive of introducing nuclear submarines. There are concerns within the LDP that the Prime Minister may lean towards the Japan Innovation Party's stance instead of the LDP's.
The debate extends beyond nuclear submarines. The Japan Innovation Party is also advocating for allowing the introduction of U.S. nuclear weapons into Japan in times of crisis, suggesting a revision of the import ban established under Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles in 1967. Amid questions about the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella under the Trump administration, the Japan Innovation Party cites Finland as an example where nuclear weapon imports are permitted. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has previously raised questions about the import ban principle before taking office. The LDP maintains a cautious stance, while China has repeatedly criticized discussions on revising Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles.
The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party are expected to continue discussions weekly, focusing on nuclear submarines, the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and the extent of defense budget increases, with a decision on the revised proposal anticipated in mid-December. How the consideration of nuclear submarine introduction is worded will be a crucial first step.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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