◆아주경제 주요뉴스
▷[국고채 담합 과징금 쇼크] "명백한 담합"이라는 공정위…"국고 손실 없는데 무슨 담합?"이라는 증권사
- The Fair Trade Commission (FTC) announced on November 11 its decision regarding potential collusion among primary dealers (PDs) during the bidding process for government bonds. The FTC concluded that there was sufficient evidence of collusion, resulting in a record fine of 1.6265 trillion won (approximately $1.4 billion) imposed on the securities firms involved. The decision has sparked outrage within the securities industry, which argues that the FTC's ruling does not take into account the structural characteristics of the government bond issuance and trading market. Both sides are currently in sharp disagreement over three main issues: the appropriateness of the collusion determination, whether there was any loss to the government, and the criteria used for calculating the fines.
- The first point of contention is whether information exchange constitutes collusion. According to the FTC, 15 PDs shared bidding rates and volume information via messaging and phone calls just one to two minutes before the bidding deadline in 150 competitive government bond auctions from January 2020 to June 2023. The FTC determined that collusion occurred in 145 of these instances regarding specific rates or volumes.
- The second issue is whether the collusion actually increased the government's borrowing costs for bonds. The FTC believes that the PDs prevented competitive bidding from lowering the winning rates, which led to losses for the government. In this context, FTC examiners and economic analysts submitted a quantitative analysis of the impact on winning rates to the plenary session, although the exact increase and the amount of loss to the government have not been finalized.
- The third point concerns the criteria for calculating the fines. The FTC classified the government bond bidding as a form of collusion and applied the winning bid amounts as the relevant sales figures, rather than the firms' operating revenues. The FTC argued that using the contract amount is justified considering the special provisions for bidding collusion and the legislative intent of the law. Consequently, the FTC calculated the final relevant sales figure at approximately 54 trillion won and set the penalty rate at 4.5%. After reviewing evidence from individual bids, the number of violations was reduced, leading to a decrease in the relevant sales figure. Taking into account the scale of unjust gains and the unique characteristics of the bond market, the FTC ultimately reduced the fines by 30%.
◆주요 리포트
좁은 호황에서, 넓은 성장으로 가는 갈림길 [현대차증권]
- The South Korean economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Although the growth rate is declining, it indicates a continuation of growth around 0.8% each quarter, significantly exceeding the potential growth rate of approximately 2%.
- The issue lies not in the height of growth but in its speed and breadth. Growth is heavily reliant on semiconductors. Due to soaring semiconductor prices, the real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) surged by 18.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the highest increase since 1977. However, real GDP growth was limited to 3.4%, and private consumption decreased compared to the previous quarter. Income is derived from semiconductor prices, while growth stems from semiconductor volumes, resulting in a small share for households.
- In 2027, semiconductor exports are expected to rise significantly, but two-thirds of this increase will be due to price effects. The volume contributing to GDP is projected to grow by around 15%, positively impacting net exports. However, 41% of the non-semiconductor value added generated by the increase in export volume is concentrated in electricity, equipment repair, and retail, indicating a narrow ripple effect.
- Large-scale facility investments are also expected to drive growth. The benefits will primarily accrue to construction, semiconductor equipment, software, and electrical equipment sectors. However, a significant portion of the equipment is imported, resulting in a smaller domestic impact relative to the scale of investment.
◆장 마감 후(11일) 주요공시
▷ 샘표식품, 정정신고서제출요구
▷ 샘표, 정정명령부과
◆펀드 동향(10일 기준, ETF 제외)
국내주식형 -4조6592억원
해외주식형 -530억원
◆오늘(12일) 주요일정
유럽: 유럽중앙은행 월례 보고서
미국: 신규 실업수당 청구건수
▷[국고채 담합 과징금 쇼크] "명백한 담합"이라는 공정위…"국고 손실 없는데 무슨 담합?"이라는 증권사
- The Fair Trade Commission (FTC) announced on November 11 its decision regarding potential collusion among primary dealers (PDs) during the bidding process for government bonds. The FTC concluded that there was sufficient evidence of collusion, resulting in a record fine of 1.6265 trillion won (approximately $1.4 billion) imposed on the securities firms involved. The decision has sparked outrage within the securities industry, which argues that the FTC's ruling does not take into account the structural characteristics of the government bond issuance and trading market. Both sides are currently in sharp disagreement over three main issues: the appropriateness of the collusion determination, whether there was any loss to the government, and the criteria used for calculating the fines.
- The first point of contention is whether information exchange constitutes collusion. According to the FTC, 15 PDs shared bidding rates and volume information via messaging and phone calls just one to two minutes before the bidding deadline in 150 competitive government bond auctions from January 2020 to June 2023. The FTC determined that collusion occurred in 145 of these instances regarding specific rates or volumes.
- The second issue is whether the collusion actually increased the government's borrowing costs for bonds. The FTC believes that the PDs prevented competitive bidding from lowering the winning rates, which led to losses for the government. In this context, FTC examiners and economic analysts submitted a quantitative analysis of the impact on winning rates to the plenary session, although the exact increase and the amount of loss to the government have not been finalized.
- The third point concerns the criteria for calculating the fines. The FTC classified the government bond bidding as a form of collusion and applied the winning bid amounts as the relevant sales figures, rather than the firms' operating revenues. The FTC argued that using the contract amount is justified considering the special provisions for bidding collusion and the legislative intent of the law. Consequently, the FTC calculated the final relevant sales figure at approximately 54 trillion won and set the penalty rate at 4.5%. After reviewing evidence from individual bids, the number of violations was reduced, leading to a decrease in the relevant sales figure. Taking into account the scale of unjust gains and the unique characteristics of the bond market, the FTC ultimately reduced the fines by 30%.
◆주요 리포트
좁은 호황에서, 넓은 성장으로 가는 갈림길 [현대차증권]
- The South Korean economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Although the growth rate is declining, it indicates a continuation of growth around 0.8% each quarter, significantly exceeding the potential growth rate of approximately 2%.
- The issue lies not in the height of growth but in its speed and breadth. Growth is heavily reliant on semiconductors. Due to soaring semiconductor prices, the real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) surged by 18.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the highest increase since 1977. However, real GDP growth was limited to 3.4%, and private consumption decreased compared to the previous quarter. Income is derived from semiconductor prices, while growth stems from semiconductor volumes, resulting in a small share for households.
- In 2027, semiconductor exports are expected to rise significantly, but two-thirds of this increase will be due to price effects. The volume contributing to GDP is projected to grow by around 15%, positively impacting net exports. However, 41% of the non-semiconductor value added generated by the increase in export volume is concentrated in electricity, equipment repair, and retail, indicating a narrow ripple effect.
- Large-scale facility investments are also expected to drive growth. The benefits will primarily accrue to construction, semiconductor equipment, software, and electrical equipment sectors. However, a significant portion of the equipment is imported, resulting in a smaller domestic impact relative to the scale of investment.
◆장 마감 후(11일) 주요공시
▷ 샘표식품, 정정신고서제출요구
▷ 샘표, 정정명령부과
◆펀드 동향(10일 기준, ETF 제외)
국내주식형 -4조6592억원
해외주식형 -530억원
◆오늘(12일) 주요일정
유럽: 유럽중앙은행 월례 보고서
미국: 신규 실업수당 청구건수
* This article has been translated by AI.
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