Journalist
Lee Jung-woo and Yoo Na-hyun
cannes2030@ajupress.com
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Korea's consumer confidence at 10-mo low March, sharpest drop since martial law shock SEOUL, March 25 (AJP) -South Korea’s consumer confidence fell to a near one-year low in March, posting its steepest monthly decline since the brief martial law episode in late 2024, as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz fuel concerns over a stagflationary shock in the import-dependent economy, central bank data showed Wednesday. The composite consumer sentiment index (CCSI) stood at 107.0 in March, down 5.1 points from the previous month, according to the Bank of Korea. The reading marked the lowest level since 101 recorded in May 2025 and the sharpest drop since December 2024, when a short-lived martial law declaration rattled markets and public sentiment. The CCSI is a composite gauge of consumer perceptions, combining six sub-indices that track current living standards, household income and spending outlook, and broader economic conditions. A reading above 100 indicates optimism relative to the long-term average from 2003 to 2024, while a reading below 100 signals pessimism. The latest decline reflects mounting anxiety over energy supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Since late February, joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments pass — while also forcing a suspension of some Qatari gas flows. The shock is particularly acute for South Korea, which relies heavily on the region for energy imports. According to the Korea International Trade Association, 68.8 percent of Korea’s crude oil imports and 19.7 percent of its natural gas imports came from the Middle East in 2025. Sub-indices showed a broad-based deterioration in sentiment. The index measuring current economic conditions plunged 9 points to 86, while the outlook for the economy over the next six months dropped a steeper 14 points to 89, underscoring growing concerns over the war’s spillover effects. Income-related indicators also weakened. The index for current household income fell 3 points to 97, slipping into pessimistic territory, while the outlook for future income edged down 2 points to 101. Inflation expectations ticked higher. The perceived current inflation rate was at 2.9 percent, while expected inflation for the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7 percent, marking the first uptick in five months. The housing price outlook index dropped 12 points to 96, falling below the neutral 100 mark for the first time in 13 months since February 2025, extending a sharp 16-point decline in the previous month amid tightening property regulations. The index suggests that more respondents now expect home prices to decline over the next year than to rise, adding to signs of a broader cooling in domestic demand expectations. 2026-03-25 11:13:35 -
Folk Museum anchors Gwanghwamun beyond BTS spotlight SEOUL, March 24 (AJP) - Gwanghwamun, the historic gateway to Gyeongbokgung Palace, briefly became the center of the world last Saturday as BTS turned it into a global livestream stage. But just steps away, another kind of crowd continues to gather — one drawn not by spectacle, but by story. On ordinary days, that stop is the National Folk Museum of Korea. Museums have been enjoying a surge in popularity, fueled in part by last year’s “K-pop Demon Hunters” hype and a broader global appetite for cultural immersion. The National Museum of Korea drew more than 6.5 million visitors last year, placing it alongside institutions like the Louvre and the Vatican Museums among the world’s most visited. The Folk Museum alone welcomed 2.28 million visitors, and nearly 60 percent of them foreigners. The appeal begins the moment visitors step inside. The entrance hall hums with motion. A group of French tourists leans into a digital display animating a traditional Korean village. Nearby, American college students mirror the gestures of a projected folk dance, their laughter echoing under the high ceiling. “I liked the interactive dance exhibit the most,” said Will, a 28-year-old visitor from Washington, still tracing the choreography with his hands. “It felt very interactive,” his friend added. “You could really immerse yourself in the experience.” Unlike traditional museums that rely on dense timelines and academic explanations, the Folk Museum organizes its exhibits around life itself — birth, childhood, marriage, aging and death — woven through the rhythm of seasons. The approach is deliberate. “If we just display objects by era, it can be difficult for foreigners to connect,” a museum official said. “But when we show how people lived — what they celebrated, how they raised children — those are experiences everyone can understand.” That philosophy is perhaps most vividly expressed in a special exhibition titled “Happy Birthday.” The gallery explores childbirth as both a personal and communal milestone. Among more than 300 artifacts are a delicate baek-il jeogori, worn by infants on their 100th day, and a father’s handwritten parenting diary, its careful script conveying quiet devotion. At the center stands the Cheonin Cheonjamun, a book of a thousand Chinese characters, each written by a different person — a symbol that a child is raised not by parents alone, but by an entire community. For some visitors, the resonance is immediate. “Everything here is beautiful,” said Tiago, a 42-year-old architect from Portugal now living in Angola, pausing before a display of traditional wooden furniture. “There’s a simplicity, but also a deep sense of purpose. Others point to something more subtle: accessibility. The museum’s layout is intuitive, its signage clear, and its exhibits cohesive — qualities that make it easy to navigate even for first-time visitors unfamiliar with Korean history. That accessibility has helped position the museum as part of a broader cultural circuit. Tourists often visit it alongside nearby landmarks such as Gyeongbokgung Palace, the National Museum of Korea and the National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art, creating a curated day-long journey through Korean heritage. Lee Yourim, who has run a café near the museum for a decade, sees this pattern daily. “A lot of people visit several places in one course,” she said. “They go to the palace, then the museum, then somewhere else nearby.” She added that foreign visitors frequently praise the museum’s family-oriented programs, especially those designed for children. Steve Lebwohl, a 76-year-old businessman from Portland, Oregon, the museum’s strength lies in its storytelling. “The architecture is simple but functional,” he said. “What stands out is the content — the way it covers seasons, birth, dance. It gives you background and context on things that foreigners are curious about.” “It’s a rounded exhibit for a national museum,” he added. His son-in-law, Oh Hanbin, a Korean American, offers a more personal perspective. He has brought his children to the museum not just as tourists but as participants in a kind of cultural inheritance. “We wanted to show them how their halmeoni and harabeoji grew up,” he says, using the Korean words for grandparents. “There aren’t many places in Portland where you can experience Korean culture like this.” As Gwanghwamun shifts from global stage back to everyday crossroads, that quieter draw remains — a place where visitors move not just through exhibits, but through the lived rhythms of a culture. 2026-03-24 17:45:56 -
About 1 in 4 NK defectors show chromosomal anomalies; no proven radiation link SEOUL, March 23 (AJP) - Roughly one in four North Korean defectors who lived near the country’s main nuclear test site has shown signs of chromosomal abnormalities potentially consistent with radiation exposure, the Unification Ministry said Monday, while stressing that no causal link has been established. The findings are based on 2024 tests conducted by the National Radiation Emergency Medical Center under the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences. The study examined 35 defectors from eight cities and counties surrounding the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where North Korea carried out all six of its nuclear tests. Of those tested, 12 individuals — about 34 percent — showed chromosomal changes in a “stable chromosome aberration test,” a biological dosimetry method used to estimate cumulative lifetime radiation exposure. All 12 recorded levels above the minimum detection threshold of 0.25 gray. By contrast, an “unstable chromosome aberration test,” which detects more recent exposure within the past three to six months, found no values above the detection limit in any subject, suggesting that any potential exposure occurred earlier. Officials cautioned that the results do not establish a direct connection to nuclear testing. Chromosomal abnormalities may arise from other sources, including medical radiation such as CT scans or exposure to harmful chemicals, including smoking. North Korea conducted nuclear tests at Punggye-ri between 2006 and 2017, releasing radioactive isotopes such as iodine-131, cesium-137, strontium-90 and plutonium-239, which can enter the body through contaminated air, water or food and potentially cause genetic damage. Despite the findings, none of the 12 individuals identified with possible abnormalities has been diagnosed with cancers typically associated with radiation exposure, according to the ministry. The latest results build on earlier screenings. In 2023, 15 out of 59 defectors showed similar signs, bringing the three-year total to 44 out of 174 individuals — about 25 percent of those tested who had lived near Punggye-ri since North Korea’s first nuclear test in October 2006. The ministry said establishing a definitive link would require environmental sampling of soil and water near the test site — currently impossible without cooperation from Pyongyang. Comparative analysis with the general South Korean population could also help clarify any correlation. About 800 defectors in South Korea are believed to have originated from the eight regions surrounding the test site. The Unification Ministry said it will continue testing, aiming to examine 50 additional individuals this year, though the program has slowed, with only 94 people tested over the past two years and no new results publicly released since 2024. 2026-03-23 17:53:03 -
NK assembly reaffirms Kim Jong-un as head of state, watched for Iran response SEOUL, March 23 (AJP) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was reappointed as head of state at the opening session of the new Supreme People’s Assembly, closely watched for Pyongyang's rhetoric on inter-Korean relationship, U.S., and nuclear amid U.S.-led attacks on Iran over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The Korean Central News Agency said the first session of the 15th Supreme People’s Assembly opened in Pyongyang and “again highly elevated Comrade Kim Jong-un to the post of president of the State Affairs.” Under North Korea’s constitution, the State Affairs Commission is the country’s highest state policy body, and its president serves as the supreme leader and head of state. Kim has held the post since the commission was created in 2016, and his latest reappointment – third - formalizes the continuation of his rule under the new parliamentary term. The SPA, North Korea’s rubber-stamp legislature, typically meets to approve personnel changes and codify decisions already made by the ruling Workers’ Party. The session was accompanied by a notable reshuffle in the upper ranks of the regime. Choe Ryong Hae, long regarded as one of the North’s most powerful officials and formerly chairman of the SPA Standing Committee, appears to have stepped down after being left off the list of delegates to the new assembly, according to reports preceding and following the session. He was succeeded by Jo Yong Won, a senior party secretary and one of Kim’s closest aides, who was also named first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission, further underscoring his rise in the leadership hierarchy. In a rare move for North Korea’s tightly controlled political system, KCNA said Choe delivered a farewell message in which he declared that the country had “permanently secured its status as a nuclear weapons state” and further strengthened its socialist system. Public remarks from departing senior officials are unusual in Pyongyang, where leadership transitions are normally handled without open acknowledgment. Other appointments included Ri Son Gwon, a former inter-Korean affairs official, and Kim Hyong Sik, a party legal official, as vice chairmen of the State Affairs Commission. Premier Pak Thae Song retained his post, while former premier Kim Tok Hun was appointed to the newly created role of first vice premier, according to KCNA. KCNA also said the Second Economic Committee, which oversees munitions production and defense industry planning, would be placed under the Cabinet, though it did not disclose who would lead the body. Kim Yo Jong, the leader’s influential sister, was removed from the State Affairs Commission, while Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and External Economic Relations Minister Yun Jong Ho retained their posts. In another notable sign of institutional change, Rodong Sinmun referred to Ri Chang Dae, previously known as minister of state security, as head of a “State Intelligence Bureau,” suggesting a possible renaming or restructuring of the internal security apparatus. The SPA session also took up amendments to the socialist constitution, implementation of the country’s new five-year national policy plan and state budget issues for 2025 and 2026, though state media gave no details. Analysts are watching closely to see whether the regime will formally write Kim’s “two hostile states” doctrine into the constitution, a move that could erase longstanding references to peaceful reunification and shared national identity with South Korea. KCNA’s description of the meeting as the “first session” suggests further meetings could follow, with constitutional revision likely to remain at the center of attention. 2026-03-23 11:02:48 -
BTS Live: How purple are you? Inside every ARMY's story SEOUL, March 21 (AJP)-Many had crossed the Pacific and the Atlantic. On the day of the concert, they arrived dressed for the scene — in purple. Scarves, dresses, glow sticks and dyed hair turned central Seoul into a moving spectrum of the group’s signature color, as fans circled the barricaded perimeter of Gwanghwamun Square ahead of BTS’s comeback concert. From the open-air stage, rehearsal tracks from the new album carried across the plaza — loud, metallic and unmistakable. Each burst of sound sent phones upward and briefly stilled the crowd. For many, that was enough. They had already come too far not to feel it. Distance and money, at that point, had ceased to matter. Jessie, 35, who works in the film industry in Mexico, had been in South Korea for a week before the show. She traveled to Busan, visited Bukchon Hanok Village and Namsan Tower, and spent days shopping in Myeong-dong. “I’ve already done a lot,” she said. “Now I’m just enjoying cafés, food, taking it slow.” The concert was the anchor of the trip, but not its entirety. For others, the scale of the experience was still settling in. For the Vibe - and Simply to be There Agnieszka, 26, and Paula, 23, flew in from Poland, adding stops in Jeju and Seoul in the days leading up to the event. “Myeong-dong was very overwhelming,” Agnieszka said. They had watched the drone show the night before and planned to stay several more days, venturing beyond the capital to Nami Island and Sokcho. A visit to Gyeongbokgung in hanbok was also on their list. “Korea is all about giving instructions,” she said, pointing to the dense signage across streets and stations. “There’s always something telling you what to do.” She paused, then added with a laugh: “And the roads are dangerous.” Anh Nguyen, 22 and a fan since 2015, flew in from Germany, spending about 5,000 euros ($5,400) on the trip to see their comeback. “Why go this far?” she repeated, before answering her own question. “The older songs — that’s what made me stay. They were my first K-pop boy band. New, interesting… and very humble.” She paused, searching for the right phrase. “There’s always a meaning. A story behind each album. That ‘wow effect.’” In Germany, she said, BTS has long moved beyond niche fandom. “Everyone knows BTS and Blackpink. Even my boyfriend — he doesn’t like K-pop — but he knows them,” she said. “ ‘Dynamite’ and ‘Butter’ are the most famous.” For ARMY, the chance to connect and share the vibe of this milestone comeback is priceless. Australian fans Kim Suda, 42, and Emily Monro, 27, were brought together far from Down Under by a shared fandom. “We literally just met,” one of them said. “There’s a BTS fan page for Australians, and now we’re just hanging out.” Neither had secured tickets for the day, but that hardly seemed to matter. They had already come prepared — light sticks packed before departure — and were now roaming the area, searching for the best vantage point ahead of the 8 p.m. show. Every fan seemed to carry a history with BTS — one that explained how they had come this far, and why simply being close to the moment was enough. “I tried my best to get a ticket, but I failed,” said Christina, 30, who flew 14 hours from Germany. “Still, it’s about being at the scene — vibing with ARMY.” For others, the connection ran deeper, shaped over years. “It reminds me of my teenage years,” said Iman Lee, 23, who traveled 17 hours from Morocco. “I used to watch them with my friends — those are really special memories.” “They gave me strength during a difficult time,” said Alise Tarbuna, who has followed BTS since returning to K-pop in 2016. And for many, the draw extended beyond music into something broader. “Through BTS, I learned about Korea — the people, the culture,” said Dilara Dogan, 25, from Germany. “I’m really thankful.” . Pilgrims from home For Kim Eun-ji, 39, from Cheongju, South Korea, getting inside had been uncertain until the last moment. “I couldn’t get a ticket at first,” she said. “Then I managed to buy a canceled one. When it worked, I couldn’t even scream.” Even on the day of the show, the reality had not fully registered. “It still doesn’t feel real,” she said. “I buy every album,” she added, showing off her 130,000 ($86) won worth purchase on Friday alone. The concert had yet to begin. But for many, the journey — measured in miles, money and time — had already reached its point. 2026-03-21 16:41:19 -
US pitches Alaska to South Korea and Japan as Gulf substitute for energy import SEOUL, March 20 (AJP) -While pressuring allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Washington is also selling them an alternative — Alaska. The pitch is becoming increasingly explicit: if South Korea and Japan are unwilling or unable to shoulder more of the military burden in the Gulf, they can instead buy into a U.S.-controlled energy system that bypasses it. That strategy gained a timely boost on Wednesday, when the United States showcased investor appetite for its Arctic resources. A federal oil and gas lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPR-A) drew a record $163.7 million in bids, with 11 companies competing for more than 1.3 million acres. Major bidders included ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and a joint effort involving Repsol and Shell. The result — the strongest in the reserve’s history — is already being framed by U.S. officials as proof that Alaska can anchor a new energy order. “This is the strongest sale we have ever had,” said Kevin Pendergast of the Bureau of Land Management, while Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called it central to “America’s energy security.” But the timing also raises a more pointed question: whether Washington is leveraging a geopolitical crisis to accelerate a commercial realignment in its favor. A meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Thursday, expected to reinforce alliance coordination, instead turned strained. Trump openly pressed Japan to do more in securing Gulf shipping routes, while mocking references to Pearl Harbor underscored the asymmetry in expectations. Japan, constrained by its pacifist constitution and still nearly 90 percent dependent on Middle Eastern energy, is responding less with warships than with checkbooks. Tokyo is finalizing investments in Alaska oil, U.S. natural gas and small modular reactors as part of a broader $550 billion package pledged last year. An initial $36 billion tranche is already in motion. South Korea is likely to face a similar proposition. Seoul has pledged up to $350 billion in U.S. investments, with $150 billion set aside for shipbuilding, and energy is emerging as a central channel through which that capital can be directed. In that context, Alaska begins to look less like an option and more like a curated solution. South Korean firms have already been on the move. POSCO International has taken a stake in Glenfarne Alaska Partners, the lead developer of a $44 billion LNG project designed to ship gas directly across the Pacific. If completed, it would lock in long-term supply relationships centered on U.S. infrastructure. Nearly all of South Korea’s and Japan’s energy imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint now exposed to prolonged disruption. The recent shock has already pushed currencies and markets toward crisis territory. Alaska, by contrast, offers a route that is politically aligned, geographically direct and — crucially — under U.S. control. “Energy security isn’t just about price. It’s about reliability,” Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy wrote, framing the state as a supplier “from one stable democracy to another.” By steering allies toward U.S.-based supply, Washington is effectively internalizing parts of their energy security — converting geopolitical risk into investment inflows and long-term commercial ties. For Japan, this aligns with its traditional model of securing stable procurement. For South Korea, whose firms are deeply embedded in trading, infrastructure and industrial ecosystems, the implications are broader. Participation in projects like Alaska LNG is not just about supply — it is about being integrated into a U.S.-led energy architecture. That creates both opportunity and constraint. “In practice, that could mean competition as well as cooperation,” said Marc Muendler of UC San Diego, noting that U.S. policy is likely to favor allied capital — on its own terms. Investment in U.S. oil, gas and critical minerals is increasingly tied to trade discussions, tariff relief and broader supply-chain alignment. A parallel U.S.-Japan initiative on rare earths and lithium is expected, with South Korea likely to be drawn in. What emerges is a pattern: allies are being asked not only to share security burdens, but to reallocate capital into U.S. strategic sectors. Washington’s message is no longer limited to securing sea lanes. It is also selling an alternative system — one that reduces exposure to Middle Eastern risk while deepening reliance on U.S. energy. 2026-03-20 14:10:39 -
AI war jolts Seoul into bipartisan push for defense chips SEOUL, March 19 (AJP) - The U.S.-Israel war on Iran — increasingly described as the world’s first “AI war” — is forcing South Korea to confront a critical vulnerability: its heavy reliance on foreign semiconductors in defense systems. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have confirmed deploying a “variety” of artificial intelligence tools in combat, from targeting systems to leadership strikes. The conflict has underscored how modern warfare is rapidly evolving into a data- and chip-driven domain — and how exposed countries can be without secure supply chains. The reality check has trigged an unusually bipartisan flurry among lawmakers. Lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties are reviving long-delayed efforts to foster a domestic defense semiconductor industry, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and build self-reliant military capabilities. Microchips already sit at the core of modern weapons systems — from fighter jets and naval vessels to missiles, radar and satellites. Yet South Korea sources nearly all of them from abroad. Internal estimates show that about 98.9 percent of semiconductors used in Korean defense systems are imported, leaving the country acutely vulnerable to external disruptions. That dependency stands in stark contrast to South Korea’s global leadership in memory chips, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The gap lies in system semiconductors — the logic chips essential for defense applications, where Korea still lags global leaders. Rep. Lee Un-ju, a Supreme Council member of the ruling Democratic Party, on Wednesday introduced a sweeping bill aimed at fostering a domestic defense semiconductor industry and stabilizing supply chains increasingly strained by geopolitical rivalry. Her proposal, titled the Special Act on the Promotion of the Defense Semiconductor Industry and Supply Chain Stabilization, frames semiconductors not merely as industrial goods but as strategic security assets. The bill calls for the creation of a Defense Semiconductor Promotion Committee under the Ministry of National Defense to assess industrial competitiveness and supply chain vulnerabilities, while building a centralized information management system. It also outlines state-backed support across the semiconductor value chain — from materials and fabrication to packaging and design — along with preferential procurement policies for domestically produced defense chips. A key focus is strengthening system semiconductors, which require far higher levels of reliability and resilience than commercial chips and underpin communications systems, radar, satellites and missile platforms. “By building a stable supply chain and fostering a domestic ecosystem, we can strengthen the foundation of self-reliant defense and contribute to economic growth,” Lee said, calling for bipartisan cooperation. A similar effort had already been underway. Rep. Sung Il-jong of the ruling People Power Party, who chairs the National Assembly’s Defense Committee, introduced related legislation in February 2025, reflecting a growing sense of urgency. “Nearly 99 percent of defense semiconductors used in South Korean weapons systems are imported,” Sung told AJP. “Our sovereign weapons systems, including missiles, depend on semiconductor sovereignty.” His proposal emphasizes building a full domestic ecosystem — from design and fabrication to packaging and maintenance — while prioritizing locally developed chips in defense procurement and strengthening safeguards against technology leakage. The push is also shaped by shifting U.S. policy. The U.S. Department of Defense is moving to phase out Chinese components from its weapons systems, with plans to exclude them from general-purpose semiconductors by 2027 and eliminate them entirely from existing programs by 2031. The effort spans the entire defense industrial base, from critical minerals to communications and navigation systems. For allies such as South Korea and Japan, the implications are immediate. Washington is increasingly urging partners to align their supply chains, effectively redrawing the boundaries of acceptable sourcing. The private sector is beginning to respond. The Defense Acquisition Program Administration has been pursuing defense semiconductor initiatives since 2023, including efforts to cultivate AI-specialized personnel. Hanwha Systems has launched joint research programs with Seoul National University and Sungkyunkwan University to localize key technologies. The company aims to develop high-frequency communication chips by 2031 and is working on domestically produced high-power, wideband semiconductors for radar systems. Still, the economics remain a major hurdle. Unlike commercial semiconductors, which benefit from massive economies of scale, defense chips are typically produced in small volumes with highly specialized specifications. That makes them less attractive to private firms without sustained government support — a gap the proposed legislation seeks to address through subsidies, workforce development and measures to prevent technology leakage. 2026-03-19 16:26:15 -
NK launches development plan to turn Pyongyang into a "world-class" city SEOUL, March 18 (AJP) - North Korea has launched a new phase of its ambitious housing construction and urban redevelopment plan to transform its capital of Pyongyang into a “world-class city,” state media reported. Top officials, including the newly-appointed ruling Workers' Party of Korea construction chief Kim Jong-gwan, held a launch ceremony and exhibition of equipment Tuesday to mark the start of the fifth phase of the Hwasong district development in the capital. The event showcased machinery, repair tools, and spare parts prepared by construction units, the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported. The Hwasong district has been a centerpiece of the state’s housing drive. From 2022 to 2025, some 40,000 new housing units were reportedly built in four development phases. Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un last month attended a groundbreaking ceremony for the fifth phase, signaling a shift in focus from meeting basic housing demand to reshaping the capital’s overall urban landscape. At the 9th party congress in February, Kim called for sustained efforts to transform Pyongyang into a city with the “dignity and character of a world-class metropolis.” Hwasong should become a model administrative district with fully integrated political, economic, and cultural functions over the next two years, he said. Residents have begun moving into 10,000 newly completed apartments, according to state media. The party told the congress it aims to build “hundreds of thousands” of housing units over the next five years, a substantial increase from the 50,000-unit target announced at the previous congress in 2021. That earlier goal was allegedly surpassed, with state media reporting that about 60,000 homes were completed in Pyongyang. The latest plans also include rural construction, with the party saying more than 110,000 farm households have already been provided with new housing. The emphasis on construction has also been reflected in personnel changes. Kim Jong-gwan, a former vice premier responsible for construction, was elevated to his current post as the top party construction official during the congress. In addition, a new sector-specific consultation body for construction was established. 2026-03-18 17:51:18 -
GULF CRISIS: Iran war gives Kim Jong-un more reason to cling to nuclear arms SEOUL, March 18 (AJP) - The war in Iran — marked by the killing of top leaders and relentless airstrikes since the United States launched Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28 — will be watched closely by one man in particular: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Among the states once grouped by President George W. Bush in the “axis of evil,” only one regime remains intact: Pyongyang. Saddam Hussein, who ruled Iraq for nearly a quarter century, was toppled in the 2003 U.S. invasion and executed in 2006. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is said to be killed during the opening strikes late February. Pundits generally agree that North Korea’s case is fundamentally different. According to Kousuke Saitou of Sophia University, U.S. President Donald Trump has shown a willingness to use force, but not without limits. “In my point of view, President Trump tends to resort to the use of force in disregard of international law, based on U.S. interests or his own assumptions,” Saitou said. The Korean Peninsula presents a very different strategic calculus from the Gulf. “The U.S. has little direct interest in forcibly changing the North Korean regime now,” he argued. Trump himself has repeatedly boasted of his “good relationship” with Kim Jong-un, and any military action against North Korea would carry immediate and potentially devastating consequences, including a severe deterioration in ties with China. That, Saitou said, would be disadvantageous to the Trump administration. If Pyongyang does not face an imminent military threat to regime survival, it has little reason to alter its current posture. “If Kim Jong Un’s ultimate goal is to stabilize his regime,” Saitou said, “he would not take actions that undermine the current stability.” Yet the longer-term implications may prove more consequential. A prolonged U.S. military and diplomatic fixation on the Middle East could create what Saitou described as greater “diplomatic freehand” for countries such as North Korea. “If U.S. diplomatic attention and military resources continue to be concentrated in the Middle East,” he said, “countries of concern in other regions … may gain greater diplomatic freehand because the U.S. does not wish to carry out military operations across multiple theaters.” That shift could ripple across East Asia. If Washington’s focus drifts, allies such as South Korea and Japan may feel compelled to strengthen their own defense capabilities — moves that could in turn provoke North Korea and China, accelerating a regional arms race. More importantly for Pyongyang, the strike on Iran over its nuclear and missile programs is likely to be read not as a warning, but as validation. “The decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership … confirm the rationality of Kim Jong Un’s strategy of ‘nuclear insurance,’” observed Vasilis Trigkas of Tsinghua University. From Iraq to Libya to Iran, the lesson North Korea may draw is blunt: regimes that lack a credible nuclear deterrent remain exposed. That, Trigkas argued, further erodes the logic of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. “The U.S. has targeted the leadership of NPT non-nuclear states,” he said, “further undermining the very bargain that once contained the spread of nuclear weapons.” By that reasoning, Pyongyang is more likely to double down on its nuclear doctrine, deepen its strategic alignment with Russia and seek geopolitical or economic advantage from a distracted international order. Beyond North Korea, the Iran war also raises broader questions about U.S. strategic credibility. Trigkas argued that Washington’s approach — military intervention abroad combined with growing pressure on allies — has weakened its standing. “Trump’s behavior has undermined U.S. strategic credibility,” he said, pointing to strains with both European and Asian allies and the administration’s heavy Middle East focus at the expense of the Indo-Pacific. For South Korea, that presents both danger and opportunity. A reduced U.S. strategic bandwidth could weaken deterrence on the peninsula, but it may also create room for a more flexible diplomatic strategy. “South Korea now has a significant opportunity to hedge by reaching out to both Beijing and Moscow,” Trigkas argued, suggesting that pragmatic engagement with China and renewed energy cooperation with Russia could serve Seoul’s interests. At the same time, more difficult questions will come into sharper focus — including the future of missile defense systems such as THAAD and the longer-term structure of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. In the end, the lesson Kim Jong-un is likely to take from Iran is not that nuclear ambition invites danger. It is that nuclear arms remain the only reliable insurance against regime change, and that may be the most damaging strategic aftershock of this war. 2026-03-18 16:06:56 -
GULF CRISIS: Trump's call to jointly police Hormuz puts allies in a dilemma SEOUL, March 16 (AJP) - The United States has initiated the war against Iran, but the fallout from Tehran’s weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz — a maritime route vital to Asia-Pacific economies that together account for roughly 70 percent of global output — is now being shifted onto those countries, according to the logic advanced by President Donald Trump. Posting on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump called on South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Japan and China — along with other countries dependent on the strait’s oil flows — to dispatch warships to help restore shipping traffic through the narrow waterway. The appeal came after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, triggering what analysts describe as one of the largest disruptions to global oil supplies in modern history. The request underscores both the strategic importance of the strait and the growing costs facing Washington as the war with Tehran stretches into its third week, with potentially severe consequences for the global and U.S. economies. Roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure a major shock to energy markets and international trade. For Trump, the logic behind the request appears straightforward: the countries he named include some of the world’s largest naval powers and major beneficiaries of open sea lanes. “The countries named are the leading naval powers after the United States and among the major beneficiaries of open sea lanes,” said Harvey M. Sapolsky of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Expecting the United States to be the sole protector of the international economy is unrealistic.” Some analysts say Trump’s reasoning is consistent with his business-minded approach to geopolitical and diplomatic issues, emphasizing burden-sharing and clear responsibilities. The countries Trump singled out fall into two broad categories. Britain and France are longstanding NATO allies with significant naval capabilities, while South Korea and Japan host major U.S. military bases and depend heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO,” Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday. In the interview, Trump also suggested that China should send warships to help secure the Gulf and warned that he could postpone a summit scheduled for early April in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping if China did not comply. According to See Seng Tan of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, Washington may be acknowledging that the war will require broader international support. “The United States seems to have come to the realization that its conflict with Iran will require more assistance and resources than Washington anticipated,” Tan said. “These countries are all major users of the Strait of Hormuz, so keeping it open serves their interests as well.” Others interpret Trump’s move as a geopolitical test. Alan Chong Chia Siong, also of Nanyang Technological University, said the U.S. president may be probing what he sees as a group of “new strategic friends” outside traditional alliance structures. By inviting them to participate in a multinational naval patrol, Chong said, Washington could demonstrate that global coordination can function without relying on the United Nations — a possible explanation for Trump’s warning that “we will remember” which countries respond. Still, many analysts remain skeptical of the coalition idea, noting that it could draw third countries directly into the conflict and potentially widen the war. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively an active war zone, where Iranian forces have threatened attacks on vessels linked to the United States or Israel. Deploying naval escorts could significantly increase the risk of confrontation. “Operating in these waters is extremely risky at present,” said Yang Zi of Nanyang Technological University. Any country sending warships, he said, must assume a high probability of clashes with Iranian forces. China in particular is unlikely to participate militarily, Yang added, since Beijing rarely follows Washington’s lead and may prefer negotiating directly with Tehran to secure its energy supplies. Legal experts also point to significant international law questions. Mara Revkin of Duke University School of Law noted that economic interests alone do not justify the use of military force under the UN Charter. Article 2(4) of the charter prohibits the use of force against other states except in cases of self-defense or when authorized by the UN Security Council. While escorting commercial ships through international waters is generally lawful, Revkin said the situation becomes far more complicated in an active war zone. “Any naval deployment by a third-party state — even if intended to protect commercial shipping — could risk being perceived by Iran as entering the conflict,” she said. Beyond the immediate question of naval escorts lies a broader uncertainty: how the war itself will unfold. Many analysts believe the conflict could become prolonged. Iran, they argue, is likely to continue exerting pressure on the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in future negotiations. Barry R. Posen of MIT predicts that the war could ultimately end with both sides claiming victory, even if Iran’s military infrastructure suffers heavy damage. Washington may also have underestimated Iran’s resilience, said Paul Michael Hedges of Nanyang Technological University, noting that Tehran has remained defiant even after the killing of its longtime leader. If maritime disruptions continue, the United States could face mounting pressure to deploy ground forces to secure key areas around the Persian Gulf — an escalation that risks turning the conflict into a prolonged and politically costly war. 2026-03-16 17:05:29