South Korea urges 50 citizens in Iran to leave as unrest continues SEOUL, January 17 (AJP) - The South Korean government said Friday that around 50 citizens are currently staying in Iran, urging them to leave the country as soon as possible amid continuing unrest. According to a joint meeting held Thursday by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and overseas missions to assess safety measures in Iran—where violent crackdowns have followed recent anti-government protests—no casualties involving South Koreans had been reported. The meeting was attended by officials from South Korea’s embassies in Iran, Azerbaijan, Israel, Turkmenistan and Türkiye. Iran has been gripped by widespread protests sparked by economic hardship, with authorities carrying out a hardline response using snipers and other security forces. Some estimates suggest that the death toll may range from several thousand to more than 10,000, though the exact scale remains unclear as Iranian authorities have restricted internet access and information flows. Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jin-a said the situation remains highly uncertain due to numerous variables, stressing the need to prioritize citizen safety even at the risk of criticism. "Even if we are criticized for taking excessive precautions, it is preferable to act in a way that minimizes risk," Kim said, echoing remarks previously made by the president. She urged officials to take all necessary steps to ensure the safety of South Korean nationals. Kim also emphasized that a Level 3 travel advisory—recommending departure—has been issued for all regions of Iran, calling on South Koreans in the country to leave as quickly as possible. She further instructed South Korean missions in three neighboring countries to thoroughly prepare all necessary measures to ensure the swift and safe evacuation of citizens in the event of an emergency. South Korean Ambassador to Tehran Kim Jun-pyo said the embassy is checking the safety of all South Korean nationals in Iran on a daily basis and actively encouraging them to depart. "Departures are continuing," Kim said, adding that the embassy is maintaining constant communication with the local South Korean community and regularly reviewing and updating evacuation plans in case the situation deteriorates further. 2026-01-17 11:50:04

U.S. makes clear Taiwan chip tariff deal will not apply to South Korea SEOUL, January 17 (AJP) - Washington has made clear that semiconductor tariffs and related exemptions will be set through country‑by‑country negotiations, meaning the criteria agreed with Taiwan will not be copied and applied automatically to South Korea. An administration official said on Friday that the U.S. would pursue "separate agreements for separate countries" when asked whether the semiconductor tariff waiver terms offered to Taiwan would also be granted to South Korea. This suggests that Washington intends to define specific tariff and exemption conditions bilaterally with each major chip‑exporting partner, rather than adopting a single unified standard. President Donald Trump has argued that semiconductor imports have reached a level that threatens U.S. national security and has instructed his administration to negotiate with relevant countries to address this perceived risk through tariffs. Under this approach, Washington plans to negotiate first with countries that export semiconductors to the U.S. and only then impose tariffs, while offering "tariff offset programs" to companies that invest in strengthening the U.S. semiconductor supply chain. Within this framework, the U.S. announced a trade agreement with Taiwan on Thursday that sets out the tariff waiver rules for Taiwanese semiconductor exports. In return for a commitment by Taiwanese firms to undertake $250 billion of direct investment in the U.S., Washington agreed to cut the reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwanese products from 20 percent to 15 percent, aligning it with the rate applied to South Korea and Japan. Previously, South Korea had agreed to $350 billion in U.S. investment and Japan to $550 billion, in exchange for reductions in their respective reciprocal tariffs. The Trump administration also decided that Taiwanese companies establishing new semiconductor production capacity in the U.S. will receive substantial tariff relief. While a new facility is under construction, imports of up to 2.5 times its production capacity can enter the U.S. market without paying the new semiconductor tariffs. After the facility is completed, imports of up to 1.5 times the new capacity can continue to enter tariff‑free. South Korea finalized its trade negotiations with the U.S. at the end of October last year, ahead of Taiwan, and secured assurances that it would not be placed at a disadvantage compared with countries whose semiconductor trade volumes with the U.S. exceed South Korea's. This implies that South Korea is expected to receive conditions at least equivalent to those applied to Taiwan, one of its key competitors, although how this principle will be implemented remains uncertain and is expected to be clarified through further negotiations with Washington. 2026-01-17 11:11:50

OPINION: When lies go global, humanity must return to its oldest truths SEOUL, January 17 (AJP) - Humanity is living through a paradox of its own making. Never have we been more technologically advanced, more interconnected, or more capable of instant communication across borders. And yet never has truth felt so fragile, so easily displaced by falsehood, manipulation, and manufactured belief. Fake news, pseudo-religions, counterfeit journalism, and demagogic politics have fused into a single ecosystem of deception—one that now threatens not only democratic governance but the moral architecture of civilization itself. This is no longer a national problem. It is not an American problem, a European problem, or an Asian problem. It is a civilizational one. The modern infrastructure of falsehood runs on global platforms—most notably YouTube and other social media networks—whose algorithms reward outrage over accuracy, repetition over verification, and emotion over evidence. Lies now travel faster than facts not because they are truer, but because they are more profitable. What began as tools of connection have become accelerants of division, radicalization, and social decay. Yet for all its technological novelty, this crisis is not new. Humanity has confronted the corrosive power of falsehood before—and long ago recorded its conclusions. Two to three thousand years ago, the foundational religious and philosophical texts of civilization converged on a single insight: societies collapse when truth is abandoned. Buddhism identified false speech and malicious language as among the gravest moral offenses, not because they offend etiquette, but because they poison the mind and unravel communal trust. Confucian philosophy warned that when words lose their proper meaning, governance itself becomes impossible. The Abrahamic traditions placed truth at the heart of divine order, treating false testimony not as a private sin but as a public crime against justice. Different civilizations, different theologies—one shared conclusion. Lies are not merely errors; they are structural threats. What distinguishes our moment is scale. Falsehood is no longer episodic or local. It is industrialized, monetized, and globalized. Pseudo-religions exploit spiritual anxiety. Pseudo-journalism imitates the form of reporting while hollowing out its substance. Pseudo-politics thrives on grievance, conspiracy, and spectacle rather than governance. Together, they form a shadow civilization that mimics legitimacy while corroding it from within. This is why appeals to “platform self-regulation” or isolated national laws are no longer sufficient. The problem has outgrown them. Just as humanity eventually recognized that weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and pandemics required coordinated international responses, so too must we now accept that systemic disinformation demands a global framework. What is needed is not censorship, but responsibility. Not suppression of dissent, but protection of reality itself. At this juncture, the world would do well to consider a coordinated, multilateral mechanism—something akin to a United Nations–level response—dedicated to confronting organized disinformation and predatory pseudo-movements that exploit digital platforms. Such a body would not police opinion, but establish shared standards of accountability, transparency, and algorithmic responsibility. It would recognize that when platforms profit from deception at scale, they cease to be neutral intermediaries and become consequential actors in global stability. In this emerging conversation, South Korea occupies a position of quiet but unusual relevance. Korea is not a military superpower. It does not dominate global finance, nor does it impose ideological blocs. Yet it is a country shaped by some of the most intense contradictions of modern history: colonization, national division, war, authoritarianism, and rapid democratization—followed by one of the world’s most advanced digital societies. It has lived through ideological extremism and learned, at great cost, what happens when truth is subordinated to power. Equally significant is Korea’s civilizational inheritance. The founding ethic of Korean civilization—Hongik Ingan, often translated as “to broadly benefit humanity”—is neither sectarian nor nationalistic. Rooted in the ancient Dangun tradition, it is a moral principle that predates modern religion and anticipates modern humanism. It does not seek dominance, but harmony; not conversion, but coordination. In contemporary Korea, multiple religions—Buddhism, Christianity, Catholicism, Confucian ethics, and indigenous traditions—coexist with relatively limited sectarian violence. This pluralistic equilibrium is neither accidental nor trivial. It offers a living example of how divergent belief systems can share a civic space without annihilating one another. For that reason, Korea is uniquely positioned to serve not as an enforcer, but as a convener. One can reasonably imagine an International Commission on Disinformation and Pseudo-Movements, headquartered in Korea, operating in cooperation with United Nations structures. Its mandate would be narrow but essential: to study systemic disinformation networks, propose global norms for platform accountability, facilitate cross-border cooperation, and anchor modern policy debates in the ethical insights humanity has already agreed upon for millennia. Such an institution would not dictate belief. It would defend the conditions under which belief remains meaningful. Critically, this effort must be grounded not only in technology and law, but in moral memory. The ancient texts were right: truth is not optional infrastructure. It is the load-bearing pillar of social order. When truth collapses, everything built upon it—democracy, trust, coexistence—follows. The choice before humanity is stark. We can continue treating disinformation as background noise, trusting that markets or platforms will self-correct. Or we can acknowledge that we are facing a systemic threat to shared reality—and respond accordingly, with humility, coordination, and resolve. History suggests that civilizations do not fall because they lack innovation. They fall because they lose their ability to distinguish truth from falsehood, meaning from manipulation. The knowledge to prevent that outcome is already in our possession. It was written down thousands of years ago. What remains is the courage to translate ancient wisdom into modern structures—and the will to act together, before the lies finish their work. 2026-01-17 10:13:53

Giant rice cake prepared by locals ahead of Lunar New Year SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - Merchants and other participants gathered to make giant rice cakes at an event held at an open-air market in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province on Friday, about a month ahead of the Lunar New Year's Day. The charity event was arranged to distribute the chewy rice cakes to those in need. South Koreans traditionally start the New Year by eating a soup made with these rice cakes, known as "tteokguk," to wish for health and longevity. 2026-01-16 17:59:19

U.S. TSMC deal signals more deal-making for Seoul and pledges from chipmakers SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - In the tariff deal Seoul and Washington signed last October, South Korea was promised it would not be treated less favorably than Taiwan. But Taiwan’s newly secured tariff exemptions tied to expanded U.S. investment are now forcing Seoul and Korean chipmakers back to the negotiating table with fresh offers. Taiwan’s tariff outcome has been closely watched in Seoul, given the scale of its semiconductor trade with the United States. In last year’s negotiations, South Korea secured a “most-favored treatment” clause, ensuring that any future U.S. semiconductor tariff arrangements with third countries would not place Korea at a disadvantage. That assurance is now being tested. While South Korea and Japan previously agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs from 25 percent to 15 percent in exchange for pledges of $350 billion and $550 billion in U.S.-bound investment, respectively, Taiwan has tied tariff relief more directly to semiconductor capital expenditure. President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a proclamation imposing additional tariffs of up to 25 percent on certain high-performance artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors on national security grounds, putting major chip-producing countries, including South Korea, on alert. According to the White House, the measure targets advanced AI chips used across 16 critical infrastructure sectors—such as data centers, defense, communications and energy—but does not apply uniformly. Instead, it is limited to products exceeding specific thresholds for logic operation performance and memory bandwidth, a structure widely interpreted as a “pinpoint tariff” aimed at top-tier accelerators such as Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. The proclamation also carves out broad exemptions for chips used within the United States, including those destined for domestic data centers, research and development, startups, consumer and industrial applications, and the public sector. Analysts say the design effectively shields most U.S.-bound supply while functioning as a de facto export tariff, particularly on shipments to China. Seoul moved swiftly. On Thursday, the government convened emergency meetings with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, both key suppliers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to Nvidia and AMD. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo extended his stay in Washington to assess the situation, while the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held an emergency task force meeting chaired by Minister Kim Jung-kwan. “We must closely examine our response efforts, continue monitoring the situation, and communicate closely with the industry to thoroughly analyze the potential impacts,” Kim said. The pressure intensified hours later when Washington finalized a trade agreement with Taiwan. Under the deal, mutual tariff rates were lowered from 20 percent to 15 percent. In return, Taiwan pledged up to $500 billion in U.S.-focused support—$250 billion in direct investment by firms such as TSMC and another $250 billion in government-backed credit guarantees. The agreement also grants Taiwanese chipmakers significant tariff exemptions tied to U.S. production. During construction of semiconductor plants, output volumes up to 2.5 times installed capacity will be tariff-free, while after completion, tariff-free treatment continues for volumes equivalent to 1.5 times capacity. South Korea’s earlier agreement with Washington explicitly promised “treatment no less favorable than Taiwan” for its semiconductor sector. Political reactions in Seoul ranged from unease to concern. Song Jae-bong, a lawmaker from the Democratic Party who sits on the National Assembly’s trade committee, said, “We are still trying to grasp the full situation, as the head of the trade negotiation bureau has not yet returned from the U.S.” Kang Seung-kyu of the People Power Party warned that the timing was troubling. “With a $20 billion cash investment in the U.S. already on the table and exchange rate volatility creating turmoil, it’s worrying that the White House has issued another proclamation like this,” he said. Independent lawmaker Kim Jong-min said the intent behind Washington’s move was clear. “The purpose of this proclamation seems to be to push firms to build more factories in the U.S.,” he said, adding that “honoring the promise that Korea will not be treated less favorably than Taiwan is critical.” Experts say the tariffs reflect Washington’s broader industrial strategy. Cho Dong-jun, professor of political science at Seoul National University, said, “The answer is obvious: it means ‘produce in the United States.’” He added that while the policy aims to rebuild U.S. manufacturing, “even if semiconductor factories are built in America, there will be no one to work in them,” warning of inefficiencies driven by domestic politics. Cho Sung-hoon, an economics professor at Yonsei University, said the proclamation serves dual purposes: “populist political motivation and an attempt to increase tariff revenue by exploiting America’s dominant position.” Others emphasized the strategic nature of semiconductors. Heo Jung, professor of economics at Sogang University, said chips are classified in the U.S. as a national security industry and are central to the AI race. “Trump likely targeted them as part of U.S. efforts to control China’s access to advanced technology,” he said. For now, the direct impact on Korean firms may be limited. KIEP researcher Kim Hyuk-jung noted that the proclamation’s annex focuses on logic semiconductors rather than memory. “Korea primarily exports memory modules to the U.S., while Taiwan exports far more logic-based products,” he said. Still, analysts warn the longer-term implications are clear. As Trump expands product-based tariffs and links exemptions to concrete investment pledges, Korea’s export-driven semiconductor industry is likely to face mounting pressure to commit more capital to U.S. production—testing both the limits of alliance politics and the durability of last year’s “most-favored” promise. 2026-01-16 17:56:30

Few babies, big business: Baby Fair at COEX SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) -South Korea has one of the world’s lowest birth rates, but when it comes to babies, the country remains serious. The 2026 Momsholic Baby Fair, one of Korea’s largest exhibitions dedicated to pregnancy, childbirth and childcare, opened Thursday at COEX Hall A in southern Seoul. The fair runs through Jan. 18, bringing together about 500 booths operated by some 200 companies from Korea and overseas. Despite shrinking family sizes, the exhibition hall was filled with expectant parents, young couples and families browsing products that span the full arc of early life — from pregnancy care and delivery essentials to infant nutrition, early childhood education programs and children’s room interiors. One dedicated zone, dubbed the “Good Sleep Project,” focused on rest, recovery and healing for parents and babies alike. Organizers said the event is designed to offer practical, hands-on information for expectant and first-time parents, while also easing financial pressure by enabling direct transactions between companies and consumers, often at discounted prices. The fair unfolds against the stark demographic reality facing South Korea. The country’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — stood at about 0.80 from January to October last year, among the lowest in the world. Yet inside COEX, the mood was less about decline than determination: strollers rolling past crowded aisles, product demos drawing small audiences, and parents-to-be comparing notes on how to prepare for a future that, for them at least, is already on the way. 2026-01-16 17:51:57

KOSPI stretches rally to 11 sessions, with gains now eclipsing past cycles SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - South Korean stocks extended their historic advance on Friday, pushing the KOSPI up for an 11th consecutive session and underscoring a rally that has grown not only longer, but materially stronger than previous market upswings. The benchmark index rose 0.9 percent to close at 4,840.7, marking a 13.8 percent gain since Jan.2 as the market continued to notch new highs with near-daily regularity entering the new year. The KOSDAQ added 0.4 percent to 954.6, while the KOSPI 200 climbed 1.2 percent to 794.6. While the current run has yet to surpass the longest streak on record — 13 consecutive gains between Sept. 4 and 24, 2019 — the scale of the advance has already far exceeded it. The 2019 rally delivered a cumulative rise of about 6.9 percent, roughly half the magnitude of the present move, highlighting the unusually strong momentum underpinning this cycle. Liquidity indicators suggest the rally is not yet being driven by aggressive leverage. Customer deposits, a proxy for idle equity capital, stood at approximately 893 trillion won ($607.5 billion) in mid-January, up more than 8 trillion won since the start of the year. The continued buildup, even as prices rise, has been interpreted as evidence that additional buying capacity remains on the sidelines. At the same time, margin trading balances have increased only gradually, hovering near 283 trillion won, while equity fund assets expanded to roughly 2,240 trillion won. The pattern suggests that inflows are broadening into medium-term investment allocations, rather than being concentrated in short-term speculative trades. The dollar was held steadily around 1,471 won. Despite the elevated level, intraday volatility was limited, easing immediate concerns about disorderly capital outflows. Sector-wise, non-ferrous metal stocks led gains, driven by expectations that U.S. investment in mineral refining could accelerate supply-chain restructuring and elevate the strategic importance of the sector. Korea Zinc jumped 10.2 percent to 1,585,000 won after reports that the company is considering building a large-scale smelting facility in Tennessee, potentially with U.S. policy backing. Market participants noted that such a move could strengthen the company’s long-term position in graphite, zinc and rare-metal supply. Among individual names, NamSun Aluminum Preferred surged 30 percent to 18,210 won. Large-cap stocks posted mixed results. Samsung Electronics rose 3.6 percent to 148,900 won after hitting an intraday record, while SK hynix added 1.0 percent to 756,000 won. Doosan Enerbility advanced 6.5 percent to 95,300 won, while Hyundai Motor slipped 2.0 percent to 414,000 won. Elsewhere in the region, sentiment was more subdued. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3 percent to 53,936.2, while China’s Shanghai Composite edged down 0.3 percent to 4,101.9. 2026-01-16 17:47:28

From kimchi to cola, everyday eating fuels Korea's chronic disease spike SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - From kimchi to cola, everyday eating fuels Korea's chronic disease spike South Korea exports some of the world’s most carefully engineered products: K-pop choreographed to the millisecond, cars built for global roads, smartphones that set industry standards. Yet when it comes to everyday health, the country is quietly losing control — not in hospitals, but at the dining table. Despite its global image as a land of fresh vegetables and fermented food, roughly one in five Korean adults now lives with hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia — or a combination of all three. These are diseases typically associated with Western lifestyles: ultra-processed foods, excess salt, sugar-sweetened beverages and sedentary habits. Korea, it turns out, has adopted many of those risks without fully shedding its own. According to the latest National Health Statistics released by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), sugar intake in Korea increasingly comes from carbonated soft drinks, which ranked second among major sources in 2024. Sodium tells a more culturally revealing story. Salt remains the single largest source of sodium intake, accounting for 15.6 percent of the daily total. Close behind are foods deeply embedded in Korean identity: napa cabbage kimchi and soy sauce. Together, these staples quietly push sodium consumption well beyond recommended levels — not through excess, but through routine. The result is visible in the data. Hyperlipidemia — elevated blood lipid levels tied to diet and inactivity — affected 23.6 percent of adults in 2024, roughly one in four. Diabetes cases have risen even faster: from just over 2 million in 2014 to more than 3.6 million in 2024, a jump of 73 percent. Among people in their 20s and 30s, the increase was sharper still, nearly 80 percent over the decade — a demographic long assumed to be protected by youth and metabolism. It is not that Korea is neglecting the problem. Cholesterol-lowering drugs are effective: among patients receiving treatment, 86 percent manage to keep cholesterol under control. The problem is that only about half of those who need medication actually take it. Diabetes reveals an even wider gap. While six in ten patients receive treatment, only one in four successfully keeps blood sugar within the recommended range. Medication alone, doctors say, cannot compensate for daily habits. “Diabetes is a disease where early management dramatically reduces complications,” said Bae Hong-won, director of the Gangwon Health Examination Center. “But people in their 20s and 30s tend to neglect it, assuming they’re still young. Once it develops, it requires lifelong care.” Experts stress that prevention does not require radical dieting or expensive interventions. Sometimes, it’s about sequence. Professor Cho Young-min of Seoul National University Hospital points to a simple adjustment: eat vegetables first, followed by protein and fat, and leave carbohydrates for last. This order slows glucose absorption and reduces blood sugar spikes — no prescription required. Movement matters just as much. A 15-minute walk after meals, even at a leisurely pace, helps muscles absorb glucose more efficiently, lowering post-meal blood sugar levels. Dietary patterns, however, remain stubborn. Analysis of national nutrition data published in Nutrition Research and Practice found that rice-centered diets were linked to higher triglycerides in men and lower “good” HDL cholesterol in both sexes, reinforcing the connection between carbohydrate-heavy meals and metabolic disease. Recognizing the risk, the KDCA has begun distributing tailored educational materials at workplaces, particularly targeting people in their 30s and 40s — the most economically active group, yet one with relatively low awareness of cardiovascular disease. “To prevent and manage chronic conditions, regular checks of blood pressure, blood sugar and cholesterol are essential,” said former KDCA Commissioner Jeong Eun-kyeong. “But just as important is practicing healthy lifestyle habits every day.” The illnesses reshaping Korean health are not born in laboratories or genetics. They are born at the table — one familiar meal at a time. 2026-01-16 17:47:18

Lee to hold New Year's press conference next week SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - President Lee Jae Myung will hold his first press conference of the new year next week, presidential secretary for public relations Lee Kyu-yeon said on Friday. According to the secretary, the president will outline his plans for what he has called a "great transformation," aimed at achieving a major leap forward for the country. The conference, scheduled for 10 a.m. at Cheong Wa Dae next Wednesday is expected to last about 90 minutes, with around 160 domestic and foreign journalists invited. Like his two previous press conferences in July and November last year, which marked his 30th and 100th days in office, he will deliver opening remarks and then take questions on key issues across different areas. 2026-01-16 17:37:08

East Asian rate decoupling: A tale of four economies SEOUL, January 16 (AJP) - East Asia is no longer a monolith but a disparate economic powerhouse that accounts for roughly a quarter of global GDP and a third of world trade. For years, the combined output of its leading quartet—China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan—has surpassed that of the euro zone, underpinned by an export engine that remains the envy of the West. Beneath this shared headline strength, however, a deep monetary divergence is taking hold. Nowhere is the split more visible than in the policy corridors of the region’s central banks. As growth models diverge, so too do interest-rate paths—revealing sharply different economic realities among neighbors once viewed as a bloc. Japan: BOJ tightening stirs domestic friction and global tremors Since his appointment in 2023, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has moved decisively to dismantle Japan’s decades-long zero-rate regime. Starting with a hike from -0.1 percent to 0.1 percent in March 2024, the BOJ has delivered successive increases—to 0.25 percent, 0.5 percent and, most recently, 0.75 percent in December—bringing the benchmark rate to the brink of 1 percent. The pivot is fundamentally defensive. Consumer inflation has remained above 2 percent since 2022, a sustained stretch not seen since the bubble era. After years of dismissing inflation as transitory, the BOJ has been forced to respond to a cost-of-living squeeze that is increasingly entrenched. At the core of Japan’s inflation problem lies the yen. Ultra-low rates long enabled the yen carry trade, in which investors borrowed cheaply in yen to chase higher returns overseas. While this strategy supported exports, an excessively weak currency has become a liability—raising import costs and amplifying inflation. Japan imports more than 60 percent of its food on a caloric basis and roughly 80 percent of its energy, leaving the economy acutely vulnerable to currency depreciation. Political resistance remains a constraint. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a staunch defender of Abenomics, has previously dismissed rate hikes as “stupid.” During a meeting with Ueda last November, she reportedly offered little more than a noncommittal “I see,” stopping short of endorsing the tightening path. Global markets are also on edge. Higher Japanese rates threaten to unwind an estimated ¥500 trillion ($3.26 trillion) in carry-trade positions. The risks were laid bare on Aug. 5, 2024, when a sudden reversal triggered synchronized sell-offs across markets from New York to Seoul. Still, doubts persist over how far tightening can go. “Japan’s growth turned negative in the third quarter of last year, real wage gains continue to disappoint, and corporate investment remains weak,” said Jung Yong-taek, a senior researcher at IBK Securities, adding that growth projections for 2026 have slipped back below 1 percent. “With the fiscal deficit near 5 percent and Prime Minister Takaichi pressing for renewed quantitative easing, we expect at most one additional rate hike this year,” Jung said. Nomura Securities echoed that view in its Japan Macro Outlook 2026, forecasting a pause in the BOJ’s tightening cycle as policymakers wait to see whether core inflation slips below the 2 percent target. Similar caution has been expressed by global asset managers including Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. China: Aggressive easing fails to awaken a somnolent economy China stands at the opposite extreme. Beijing has slashed its loan prime rate from 3.85 percent in 2021 to a record low of 3 percent by May last year, flooding the system with liquidity in hopes of reigniting growth. The strategy has succeeded—at least on the industrial front. Output surged, reinforcing China’s position as the world’s factory. In 2025, the country posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. BYD overtook Tesla in electric vehicles, while ChangXin Memory Technologies emerged as the world’s fourth-largest memory-chip maker. Yet the benefits have largely bypassed households. Ultra-low rates accelerated the implosion of a property sector that holds roughly 70 percent of household wealth. As defaults mounted, home prices fell more than 20 percent. With savings offering minimal returns, households had little buffer against the collapse—deepening the real estate downturn rather than cushioning it. Consumption remains anaemic. Consumer inflation has stayed below 1 percent, reflecting persistent deflationary pressure. Retail sales growth has slowed to around 1 percent—an abrupt drop in an economy once accustomed to 8 percent expansion—casting doubt on Beijing’s 5 percent growth target. Producer prices tell a similar story, falling 1.9 percent in December as overcapacity fuels cutthroat price wars. Excess supply continues to overwhelm domestic demand, eroding margins and confidence. Beijing is widely expected to stay dovish. “After the Communist Party designated domestic demand-driven growth as a core priority for 2026 at December’s Central Economic Work Conference, accommodative policy is likely to persist,” said Park Soo-jin, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities. Still, Park cautioned that the limits of monetary easing are becoming clear. China’s M2 money supply continues to decelerate despite rate cuts, underscoring waning transmission. Attention is now turning to the March “Lianghui” meetings, where authorities are expected to outline structural reforms beyond liquidity injections. South Korea and Taiwan: A shared pause, divergent realities South Korea and Taiwan—key pillars of the global semiconductor supply chain—have both opted for policy stasis. The Bank of Korea has held its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent since May 2025, while Taiwan’s central bank has kept rates at 2 percent for nearly two years. The similarity ends there. In Seoul, the pause reflects constraint. The won has weakened more than 4 percent against the dollar from its 2024 average, trading near 1,474 as of Friday. With a 1.25 percentage point yield gap with the United States, further cuts risk accelerating capital outflows and currency depreciation—especially as the yen regains strength. BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong reinforced this hawkish bias on Thursday by removing references to “possible rate cuts” from the policy statement. While ruling out further easing, he also acknowledged that hikes cannot be an option due to South Korea’s 1,800 trillion won ($1.33 trillion) household debt burden. Property-related loans alone exceed 1,000 trillion won. A rate hike, Rhee warned, could destabilize housing rather than contain it—triggering defaults and a sharper downturn. Taiwan’s inaction, by contrast, reflects confidence. The economy is projected to grow 7.4 percent in 2025, according to the Central Bank of the Republic of China—far outpacing South Korea’s 1.8 percent forecast. Taiwan’s GDP per capita has overtaken Korea’s for the first time in more than two decades, while its $138 billion trade surplus is nearly double Seoul’s. The engine is semiconductors. TSMC, the linchpin of the global AI supply chain, is expected to post record revenues of $122 billion and operating profits of $60 billion. With exports driving growth, policymakers see little reason to risk tightening. Domestic conditions are equally benign. Inflation remains near the 2 percent target, and the Taiwan dollar has been stable around 31 to the U.S. dollar. Unlike South Korea, Taiwan can afford to wait. 2026-01-16 17:03:59