Corporate Credit Downgrades Accelerate, Testing Banks’ Bad-Loan Risk

Banks have begun regular corporate credit-rating reviews as Middle East-driven geopolitical risks and tougher U.S. tariff barriers add downward pressure on manufacturers’ credit profiles. Corporate delinquencies have jumped nearly fourfold in just three months, but banks, constrained by regulators’ “productive finance” policy stance, have been reluctant to raise rates or pull credit from borrowers facing downgrades.

According to the financial industry on Monday, major banks started this month’s periodic reviews using companies’ 2025 year-end financial statements. The reviews cover all firms with lending relationships at each bank. Ratings are determined by factors including sales, operating profit, cash holdings, interest coverage and technology capabilities. Because the results influence future loan limits and interest rates, the process is a core task for banks’ corporate-finance units.

This year’s reviews are expected to be stricter than usual, as volatility in raw-material prices tied to Middle East risks and stronger U.S. protectionism hit export-dependent manufacturers at the same time.

Signs of weakening credit are already emerging across major industries. In steel, global rating agency S&P cut POSCO’s rating to BBB+ from A-. Korea Ratings lowered LG Chem’s outlook this month to negative from stable.

NICE Investors Service assigned EcoPro an A- rating on its senior unsecured bonds, below its previous A level. In solar, Hanwha Solutions is under downgrade pressure with net debt of about 12 trillion won. In construction, Daewoo Engineering & Construction and others facing reduced housing move-in volumes received negative outlooks.

The problem, bankers say, is that downgrades are not translating into higher financing costs as they typically would. Normally, weaker ratings lead to higher interest rates or reduced lending. But with authorities emphasizing “productive finance” to cushion the economy, banks are being pushed to maintain or extend loans even as they recognize rising credit risk.

That dynamic is weighing on bank soundness. If banks cannot fully price the added risk, they struggle to secure returns commensurate with exposure. As delinquencies rise, some warn that potential bad loans could accumulate without being immediately reflected on balance sheets.

Delinquency indicators are climbing quickly. At the five largest banks — KB, Shinhan, Hana, Woori and NH NongHyup — the delinquency rate for large corporations rose to 0.13% in the first quarter from 0.03% at the end of last year. The rate for small and midsize companies increased to 0.57% from 0.49%. Real estate delinquencies hit the highest levels across major banks, and the delinquency rate for sole proprietors also reached a record high of 0.56%.

The outlook remains uncertain. If the recovery is delayed, some expect “delayed restructuring,” with problems at companies reliant on support surfacing later. If policy constraints ease, others warn that rate hikes and credit tightening could come at once, sharply increasing corporate burdens.

A financial industry official said, “This year we have no choice but to be conservative in assigning ratings, but in reality more companies are getting their loans extended,” adding, “The gap between policy and market logic is widening.”