The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in May 2026 transcended mere bilateral relations, impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and global energy dynamics. The key topics of discussion were Iran's nuclear program and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait.
According to a White House statement, both leaders agreed on the principle that "Iran must never possess nuclear weapons" and that "the Hormuz Strait must remain open for international energy supplies." Following the meeting, President Trump emphasized that "President Xi also wants the Hormuz Strait to be reopened and is willing to help resolve the Iran issue."
On the surface, this appears to be a significant diplomatic advancement. However, a closer examination of the messages from both the U.S. and China reveals a more complex reality. While the U.S. strongly emphasized the "zero tolerance for Iran's nuclear ambitions" and the "complete opening of the Hormuz Strait," China maintained a cautious stance. The Chinese Foreign Ministry only confirmed that the Middle East issue was among the summit's agenda, without officially mentioning the U.S. assertion of "zero tolerance for Iranian nuclear weapons." The stance on the Hormuz Strait remained at a general level, stating that "China's position is consistent and clear."
This subtle difference in tone illustrates that despite sitting at the same table, the U.S. and China are pursuing entirely different strategic calculations. For the U.S., the Hormuz Strait is not just a Middle Eastern waterway; it is the heart of the global energy supply chain, influencing international oil prices, global inflation, maritime logistics, and financial market stability. The prolonged conflict in Iran has led to rising oil prices and inflationary pressures in the U.S., posing direct challenges for the upcoming midterm elections and the domestic economy. The U.S. needs to manage tensions in the Middle East to a controllable level.
A key variable in this process is China's influence over Iran. As one of the world's largest oil importers and a major buyer of Iranian crude, the U.S. hopes China will exert some pressure on Iran to ease tensions in the Hormuz Strait. Reports indicate that during the summit, President Xi expressed interest in increasing imports of U.S. crude oil and LNG. This goes beyond mere energy transactions; China aims to diversify its dependence on the Hormuz Strait while also securing leverage in economic negotiations with the U.S. Expanding imports of U.S. energy could serve as a stabilizing factor in U.S.-China trade tensions.
However, the likelihood of China acting in line with U.S. expectations remains low. The relationship between China and Iran extends beyond simple oil trade to a strategic partnership. Historically, the ties between the two nations are deep-rooted, dating back to the ancient Silk Road era, where China and Persia were connected through a vast Eurasian network of civilization, commerce, religion, and culture. The Silk Road, which linked Chang'an to Persia through Central Asia, was not merely a trade route but a vital artery of civilization. Today, China reinterprets this as its modern Silk Road initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative, with Iran as a key component. Geographically, Iran serves as a strategic gateway connecting the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe. For China, Iran is an essential partner to reduce dependence on U.S. naval control and expand land supply chains.
The two nations have significantly strengthened their cooperation in energy, infrastructure, finance, and military sectors through a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2021. China has become the largest customer for Iranian oil, while Iran continues to survive economically amid U.S. sanctions through Chinese technology and capital. Essentially, China has filled much of the void left by Western capital due to U.S. sanctions.
Energy cooperation is particularly crucial. China's economy relies heavily on massive oil and LNG consumption, with a significant portion of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, primarily through the Hormuz Strait. In other words, the Hormuz Strait is one of the lifelines of China's industrial economy.
Thus, China also does not desire a complete blockade of the Hormuz Strait. The question lies in what form of "opening" is desired. The U.S. seeks a complete freedom of navigation system under international law, while Iran aims to allow limited and selective passage under its security control. Recently, Iran has permitted certain friendly nations, including China, to navigate under specific conditions. This is not merely maritime control; Iran seeks to establish new geopolitical influence through the Hormuz Strait, applying pressure on vessels linked to the U.S. and Israel while allowing limited passage for China and other friendly nations, thereby attempting to reshape the international order in its favor.
From China's perspective, this structure is not entirely disadvantageous. A weakened U.S.-centric Middle Eastern order could allow China to expand its strategic space. Ultimately, the Xi administration appears to be employing a complex strategy of showing cooperation with the U.S. while simultaneously maintaining its strategic relationship with Iran. This is why, despite the announcements from the U.S.-China summit, the actual situation remains uncertain. Attacks on vessels and incidents of seizure continue in the Hormuz Strait. An Indian cargo ship was attacked and sunk, and incidents of vessel seizures have occurred near the UAE. The international shipping industry has entered a state of extreme tension, with insurance rates and freight costs soaring.
The global energy market is also unstable. The Hormuz Strait is a critical passage for global oil maritime traffic. If current tensions persist or escalate into military conflict, international oil prices are likely to surge again, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures in the U.S. and Europe, and posing serious burdens on the growth of Asian manufacturing countries like South Korea, China, and Japan.
So, is there a possibility for peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran? Currently, there is potential for limited ceasefires or partial de-escalation. However, numerous obstacles remain before full normalization of relations can be achieved. Iran has already secured a powerful strategic card in the Hormuz Strait through this conflict. Meanwhile, while the U.S. desires stability in the Middle East, it cannot accept Iran's nuclear development and regional hegemony. Ultimately, the future order in the Middle East is likely to be shaped by a complex balance of power involving the U.S., China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Russia.
The U.S.-China summit in Beijing symbolized an effort by both nations to choose manageable tensions over direct confrontation on this vast geopolitical chessboard. However, challenges remain. There is a willingness to cooperate, but trust is still lacking. The most dangerous moments in international politics occur when the gap between these two factors widens.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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