The Houthi militia in Yemen has declared a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about significant disruptions to the global oil supply chain.
According to the Wall Street Journal on July 21, shipping and logistics data firm Kpler warned that if navigation through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is impeded following issues in the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 25% of the world's oil supply could be affected.
Currently, an average of about 45 vessels pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait daily, a significant decrease from the 65 to 72 vessels before the Houthi's intensified attacks in October 2023. Kpler noted, "If the Houthis target Saudi-related vessels as announced, the current traffic could drop to half its current level."
The importance of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has increased due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia transports oil through a pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu before exporting it to Asian markets via this strait.
Currently, the daily oil loading at Yanbu is approximately 4 million barrels, nearly quadrupling since before the conflict. Of this, about 2.5 million barrels pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait en route to Asia.
Concerns over the blockade are already impacting shipping operations. Two tankers carrying Saudi oil changed their routes and turned back after the Houthi's warning.
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy stated, "If navigation through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked while the Strait of Hormuz is already restricted, it would threaten a key route for circumventing Gulf oil exports."
Worries about supply disruptions are also rising beyond the Middle East. Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have affected operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal near Novorossiysk, Russia. Oil transported through the CPC accounts for about 2% of global supply.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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