This year, South Korea's birth rate is showing signs of recovery, with expectations that the annual total fertility rate could reach the 0.9 range for the first time in seven years. However, experts caution that the ongoing effects of low birth rates may still hinder efforts to reverse the aging population structure.
According to data from the National Statistical Portal (KOSIS) and population trends released on August 2, the total fertility rate for the first quarter of this year was 0.95, with April and May recording rates of 0.93 and 0.85, respectively.
Typically, the total fertility rate is higher in the first and second quarters and lower in the third and fourth quarters. Given the trends observed through May, there are predictions from both government and external sources that the annual total fertility rate could exceed 0.9.
If the total fertility rate recovers to the 0.9 range this year, it would mark the first time since 2019, when it was 0.92. The rate, which was 1.48 in 2000, has steadily declined, reaching as low as 1.05 in 2017. In 2018, it fell below 1 for the first time, dropping to 0.98. After hitting a record low of 0.72 in 2023, it rebounded to 0.75 in 2024 and rose to 0.80 last year.
The increase in the total fertility rate is attributed to a combination of factors, including a rise in the population of individuals in their 30s, an increase in marriages, and a positive shift in perceptions regarding marriage and childbirth. From January to May this year, the number of births totaled 122,694, reflecting a 15.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Despite the recent uptick in births, analysts argue that it is insufficient to reverse the entrenched trend of aging. Over the past decade, the youth population has decreased by approximately 25%, while the elderly population has surged by over 60%.
According to the registered census population statistics compiled annually in November, the youth population aged 0-14 was 5,224,936 last year, a 24.9% decrease from 2015. This decline has continued at an annual rate of about 2-4% over the past decade.
In contrast, the population aged 65 and older increased from 6,617,378 to 10,722,557, marking a 62.0% rise and surpassing 10 million. This age group has seen an annual increase of about 3-6% over the last ten years. Notably, the population aged 85 and older has more than doubled in the past decade, rising from 525,723 to 1,148,525.
As a result, the proportion of the youth population among the total population of 51,817,499 last year was only 10.1%, while the elderly population accounted for 20.7%, more than double that of the youth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) emphasized in a report released last month that structural reforms are necessary to address low birth rates, aging, and regional economic disparities.
According to data from the National Statistical Portal (KOSIS) and population trends released on August 2, the total fertility rate for the first quarter of this year was 0.95, with April and May recording rates of 0.93 and 0.85, respectively.
Typically, the total fertility rate is higher in the first and second quarters and lower in the third and fourth quarters. Given the trends observed through May, there are predictions from both government and external sources that the annual total fertility rate could exceed 0.9.
If the total fertility rate recovers to the 0.9 range this year, it would mark the first time since 2019, when it was 0.92. The rate, which was 1.48 in 2000, has steadily declined, reaching as low as 1.05 in 2017. In 2018, it fell below 1 for the first time, dropping to 0.98. After hitting a record low of 0.72 in 2023, it rebounded to 0.75 in 2024 and rose to 0.80 last year.
The increase in the total fertility rate is attributed to a combination of factors, including a rise in the population of individuals in their 30s, an increase in marriages, and a positive shift in perceptions regarding marriage and childbirth. From January to May this year, the number of births totaled 122,694, reflecting a 15.2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Despite the recent uptick in births, analysts argue that it is insufficient to reverse the entrenched trend of aging. Over the past decade, the youth population has decreased by approximately 25%, while the elderly population has surged by over 60%.
According to the registered census population statistics compiled annually in November, the youth population aged 0-14 was 5,224,936 last year, a 24.9% decrease from 2015. This decline has continued at an annual rate of about 2-4% over the past decade.
In contrast, the population aged 65 and older increased from 6,617,378 to 10,722,557, marking a 62.0% rise and surpassing 10 million. This age group has seen an annual increase of about 3-6% over the last ten years. Notably, the population aged 85 and older has more than doubled in the past decade, rising from 525,723 to 1,148,525.
As a result, the proportion of the youth population among the total population of 51,817,499 last year was only 10.1%, while the elderly population accounted for 20.7%, more than double that of the youth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) emphasized in a report released last month that structural reforms are necessary to address low birth rates, aging, and regional economic disparities.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.