President Lee Jae-myung is increasingly expected to initiate a 'sequential cabinet reshuffle' from September to October, addressing urgent personnel changes in key ministries. The resignation of Justice Minister Jeong Seong-ho and the prolonged vacancy in the Ministry of SMEs have made it difficult to delay appointments further, especially as a significant reshuffle before the October National Audit poses challenges.
President Lee is anticipated to prioritize appointments in the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of SMEs in September, followed by additional changes reflecting the outcomes of national policy initiatives and the need for political figures to return to their party roles around the time of the National Audit in October.
According to sources from the Blue House and political circles on the 19th, there is no officially confirmed schedule for the reshuffle. However, the Blue House's acknowledgment of Jeong's resignation suggests that the search for his successor has become unavoidable.
Blue House spokesperson Kang Yoo-jung stated the previous day that Jeong requested to step down for health reasons, urging him to fulfill his responsibilities until a successor is appointed. This marks a shift from last month when the Blue House denied rumors of his resignation.
The Ministry of Justice is on the verge of launching the Serious Crimes Investigation Agency and the Prosecution Service. Jeong believes that with major legislative changes, including the abolition of the prosecution office and the separation of investigation and prosecution, his role has effectively concluded.
Similarly, the appointment of a new Minister of SMEs is becoming increasingly urgent. The position has been vacant for over a month since former Minister Han Seong-sook moved to the Prime Minister's office in July. Keeping the ministry responsible for supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and venture policies in an acting capacity for an extended period contradicts the Blue House's commitment to prioritizing the economy and people's livelihoods.
Thus, it is likely that President Lee will first nominate candidates for the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of SMEs in September. Following the nomination, the National Assembly's confirmation process typically takes about 20 days, and if a confirmation report is not adopted, additional time for resubmission is required.
Considering the time needed for candidate vetting, if nominations are made after mid-September, the swearing-in could extend into October.
Subsequent reshuffles may focus on ministries responsible for key national tasks in the second year of governance, such as education, culture, and climate and energy. Education Minister Choi Kyo-jin and Culture and Sports Minister Choi Hwi-young, while not politicians, have been mentioned as needing replacement due to the demand for new execution capabilities in education reform and the K-content industry.
The future of current lawmaker Kim Seong-hwan, Minister of Climate and Energy, is also uncertain. The Climate Ministry is tasked with implementing President Lee's new growth strategy, which includes expanding renewable energy and enhancing the power grid. While continuity in policy may necessitate his retention, the conclusion of the Democratic Party's convention raises the possibility of returning political appointees to their party roles, making him a potential candidate for replacement.
Other incumbent lawmakers, including Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Kim Yoon-deok, are also being considered for potential reshuffles. However, given that the Ministry recently announced and began implementing rapid housing supply measures, a swift leadership change could disrupt policy accountability and continuity. If President Lee prioritizes policy execution over political renewal, the Ministry of Land may be pushed down the list for reshuffles.
There are ongoing discussions about potential changes in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Health and Welfare. However, with pressing issues such as U.S.-Korea relations and North Korea-U.S. dialogue, as well as pension and healthcare reforms, the actual scope of the reshuffle is expected to be determined by the availability of candidates and the need for continuity in operations.
The October National Audit is seen as one of the biggest obstacles to a sequential reshuffle. If new ministers are not adequately briefed before the audit, they may be vulnerable to intense scrutiny from opposition parties. Conversely, if existing ministers undergo the audit for policies they have implemented before being replaced, it could ensure accountability and continuity in governance.
Starting in November, the review of next year's budget will intensify, meaning that if the second reshuffle is delayed, it could extend into the end of the year.
The delay in the reshuffle is largely attributed to issues surrounding candidate vetting.
Strengthening the Blue House staff is expected to proceed on a separate track from the cabinet reshuffle. While ministers must be appointed through the Prime Minister's recommendation and the National Assembly's confirmation, Blue House senior secretaries can be appointed directly by the President.
In particular, the position of AI Future Planning Senior Secretary, vacant since June due to former Secretary Ha Jung-woo's candidacy in a by-election, is considered urgent. With President Lee emphasizing artificial intelligence as a core component of his three mega projects and new growth strategy, the prolonged vacancy of the Blue House's 'AI Control Tower' contradicts the government's messaging.
It is reported that the Blue House has re-evaluated potential candidates for the AI Senior Secretary position. With the position of the Deputy Chair of the National AI Strategy Committee also vacant, the search for someone who possesses expertise from both industry and academia while being able to mediate government interests is taking longer than expected.
A ruling party official stated, “The success of the reshuffle will depend more on the qualifications of the successors and the speed of policy implementation than on the number of changes,” adding that finding candidates who meet President Lee's standards appears to be challenging.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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