As home prices in Seoul continue to rise, a recent analysis suggests that by 2030, properties in non-Gangnam areas could also become subject to the comprehensive real estate tax. According to the analysis, based on the top five price districts in each district, 22 of Seoul's 25 districts, excluding Gangbuk, Geumcheon, and Dobong, are expected to see taxable properties emerge.
On September 6, Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the People Power Party revealed a simulation model obtained from KB Kookmin Bank. The model indicates that if Seoul's apartment prices maintain an annual increase of 11%, the number of taxable properties will rise from 78 this year to 101 by 2030.
The analysis focused on 125 apartment complexes with a standard size of 34 pyeong across the top five districts in Seoul's 25 autonomous districts.
The findings show that even in districts like Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang, which currently do not pay the comprehensive real estate tax, taxable properties are expected to appear by 2030. Of the 47 currently exempt properties, 23 are projected to become taxable, including four in Gangseo, four in Gwanak, four in Eunpyeong, three in Seongbuk, two in Jongno, and one each in Nowon and Jungnang.
If the upward trend in home prices continues, the comprehensive real estate tax will shift from being limited to high-end apartments in Gangnam to encompassing major complexes across most of Seoul.
The number of taxable properties is expected to temporarily decrease following the tax reform, but will rise again as home prices accumulate. The number of non-residential taxable properties is projected to drop from 78 this year to 68 in 2027, before increasing to 82 in 2028, 94 in 2029, and 101 in 2030.
The increase in tax burden is expected to be significant. The total tax amount for all 125 complexes is estimated to rise from 58.9 billion won this year to 526.2 billion won by 2030 under non-residential criteria, an increase of 8.9 times. Under residential criteria, it is expected to grow to 334.7 billion won, a 5.7-fold increase.
On average, the comprehensive real estate tax per unit is projected to jump from 951,338 won this year to 8,428,401 won by 2030 under non-residential criteria, and to 5,549,778 won under residential criteria.
Notably, the increase is particularly pronounced in non-Gangnam areas, where the total tax burden for major complexes in Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang is expected to rise from approximately 720,000 won this year to about 40.58 million won by 2030 under non-residential criteria, a staggering 56.6-fold increase.
Even if the rate of increase in home prices slows to 5.5% annually, which is half of the recent year's rate, the tax burden is still expected to grow. In this scenario, the number of taxable properties under non-residential criteria is projected to be 82 across 19 districts, with four new taxable properties all located in Gangseo.
The total tax amount is estimated to reach 292.6 billion won under non-residential criteria by 2030, approximately five times this year's amount, and 171.9 billion won under residential criteria, a 2.9-fold increase.
This simulation incorporates the government's tax reform proposals and amendments. Starting in 2027, the basic exemption will be set at 1.4 billion won for residential properties and 1.2 billion won for non-residential properties, with the fair market value ratio and tax burden cap set at 70% and 150%, respectively.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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