Support for President Lee Jae-myung continues to decline, putting his plan to expand his base among moderates, youth, and the middle class—termed a 'structural majority'—to the test. There is a noticeable weakening of support among key target groups, including moderates and young voters, rather than a loss of core supporters.
The decline in approval ratings is attributed to a combination of issues, including real estate, economic conditions, and personnel matters. Concerns are growing that a prolonged drop in support could hinder the government's ability to pursue reform initiatives and maintain operational momentum. Experts suggest that connecting macroeconomic achievements, such as exports and growth, to tangible improvements in people's lives is crucial for restoring support, along with enhancing policy consistency and predictability.
According to a Gallup Korea survey released on September 4, 40% of respondents approved of President Lee's performance, while 51% disapproved. This survey, conducted from September 1 to 3 with 1,001 voters, showed a 2 percentage point drop in approval since the previous survey released on August 28. Approval ratings fell from 51% in the fourth week of July to 44% in the second week of August, 45% in the third week, and 42% in the fourth week, continuing a downward trend. Disapproval ratings surpassed 50% for the first time in the fourth week of August.
A Realmeter survey conducted from August 24 to 28 and published on August 31 also indicated a decline in approval ratings, which fell to 38.9%, marking the first time it dropped into the 30s and reflecting a seven-week consecutive decline. Disapproval ratings rose to 58.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points. This downward trend in support for President Lee is evident across major polls.
The term 'structural majority' was publicly introduced during a lunch with former President Moon Jae-in on July 1. President Lee stated, "Internal unity is very important. We must be solid inside," and emphasized the need to continuously expand the base to create a structural majority. The plan aims to consolidate core supporters while broadening support among moderates, youth, and the middle class to secure a stable governance foundation.
However, recent trends indicate a relative weakness in the target groups for expansion rather than among core supporters. In the Gallup survey, approval ratings among Democratic Party supporters and progressives were 73% and 66%, respectively, but only 25% among those in their 20s. Among moderates, approval was at 38%, with disapproval at 53%, indicating a predominance of negative evaluations.
The decline in support is attributed to a combination of real estate, economic, and personnel issues. In particular, instability in the real estate and rental markets, tax confusion, and stock market volatility are affecting public perceptions of the economy and trust in policies. Controversies arising during personnel hearings have also contributed to the burden. According to the Gallup survey, the main reasons for disapproval were real estate (23%), economic and livelihood issues (11%), and personnel matters (9%).
The government and ruling party must be cautious about the long-term implications of declining support on governance. Even with a stable majority in the National Assembly, public backing is essential for the continued pursuit of key reform initiatives and economic policies. A weakening of support among moderates and youth could complicate efforts to achieve social consensus during policy implementation.
President Lee has recently taken steps to revitalize the government's image and enhance communication. Following cabinet reshuffles and the resignation of Policy Chief Kim Yong-beom, he has increased engagement with labor and civil society and strengthened communication with the public through social media.
The key variable that will influence future approval ratings is the tangible impact of policies on the public. Achievements in exports, growth rates, and increased investment in artificial intelligence must translate into stable housing prices, rental stability, quality job creation, and rising household incomes. There is also a need for consistency and predictability in policies that directly affect people's lives, such as real estate and taxation, to build market trust.
Experts suggest that the current decline in support should not be viewed merely as a political crisis but as an opportunity to reassess governance priorities. They argue that the more stable the institutional foundation, such as a strong majority in the National Assembly, the more critical it becomes to translate public support into effective policy implementation.
Park Sang-byeong, a political commentator, noted, "The ruling party currently holds an overwhelming majority in the National Assembly and has a strong political foundation in both presidential and local powers. For this foundation to lead to stable governance, it is essential to secure genuine support through policies that the public can feel and appreciate."
Meanwhile, President Lee departed on September 6 for a state visit to France. Amid ongoing controversies regarding military contributions in the Strait of Hormuz, he will meet with President Emmanuel Macron and co-host the international film and video summit, the 'Lumière Summit,' during his stay until September 9.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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