The South Korean government's consideration of a military deployment to the Hormuz Strait is revealing deepening divisions within the ruling coalition. As President Lee Jae-myung's approval ratings continue to decline, analysts warn that the controversy surrounding overseas deployments could further undermine the government's momentum. Growing opposition to the deployment among supporters of the ruling coalition raises concerns that the foundation of President Lee's proposed 'structural majority' could be jeopardized.
According to government and military officials on September 10, a local investigation team from the Ministry of National Defense, dispatched to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is set to return today. The team is expected to report its findings to the National Security Council (NSC) soon, in accordance with Defense Ministry directives. The government remains cautious, stating that a deployment has not yet been finalized. However, the Blue House has indicated that it is considering technical and intelligence support for the Hormuz Strait, suggesting that practical discussions regarding deployment have progressed significantly.
As the possibility of deployment becomes more concrete, opposition within the ruling coalition is intensifying. Some lawmakers from the ruling party have publicly expressed their disapproval. Senior Democratic Party member Song Young-gil stated on YTN Radio the previous day that there is “less justification than during the Iraq War,” predicting that a deployment proposal would face challenges in the National Assembly. Kim Jun-hyung, the floor leader of the Justice Party, also issued a statement on September 4, labeling U.S. military actions against Iran as “illegal acts of aggression” and opposing the deployment of South Korean troops.
Civil society is also organizing against the deployment. The 'Joint Action Against Invasion War and Deployment,' comprising 601 organizations from civil and labor sectors, plans to hold protests and marches in Seoul's Gwanghwamun area on September 12, following demonstrations the previous day.
Overall public sentiment appears to be against the deployment. A recent nationwide survey conducted by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research revealed that 45% of respondents oppose sending maritime patrol aircraft and logistical support vessels to the Hormuz Strait, compared to 36% in favor.
Notably, among the Democratic Party's support base, 55% oppose the deployment, significantly outpacing the 31% who support it. Among the broader progressive demographic, 60% expressed opposition to the deployment (29% in favor).
Experts warn that the deployment controversy could hinder the government's ability to consolidate its core support while also expanding its appeal to moderate and conservative voters, ultimately weakening its governing power. If the Democratic Party, the ruling coalition, and its core supporters fracture over the deployment, it could undermine the existing support base and jeopardize President Lee's vision of securing a structural majority.
In this context, Professor Eom Gi-hong from Kyungpook National University noted, “The Hormuz situation represents support for a war without justification from the perspective of the progressive base, which will inevitably lead to a loss of support,” adding that “the shock and repercussions will likely last a considerable time.” Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon stated, “If a final decision on deployment is made, it will be crucial for the Blue House to clearly explain the rationale behind the decision and the diplomatic benefits that can be gained, as well as how effectively it can persuade the leadership of the Democratic Party and the pro-Lee faction to restore governing momentum.”
According to government and military officials on September 10, a local investigation team from the Ministry of National Defense, dispatched to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is set to return today. The team is expected to report its findings to the National Security Council (NSC) soon, in accordance with Defense Ministry directives. The government remains cautious, stating that a deployment has not yet been finalized. However, the Blue House has indicated that it is considering technical and intelligence support for the Hormuz Strait, suggesting that practical discussions regarding deployment have progressed significantly.
As the possibility of deployment becomes more concrete, opposition within the ruling coalition is intensifying. Some lawmakers from the ruling party have publicly expressed their disapproval. Senior Democratic Party member Song Young-gil stated on YTN Radio the previous day that there is “less justification than during the Iraq War,” predicting that a deployment proposal would face challenges in the National Assembly. Kim Jun-hyung, the floor leader of the Justice Party, also issued a statement on September 4, labeling U.S. military actions against Iran as “illegal acts of aggression” and opposing the deployment of South Korean troops.
Civil society is also organizing against the deployment. The 'Joint Action Against Invasion War and Deployment,' comprising 601 organizations from civil and labor sectors, plans to hold protests and marches in Seoul's Gwanghwamun area on September 12, following demonstrations the previous day.
Overall public sentiment appears to be against the deployment. A recent nationwide survey conducted by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research revealed that 45% of respondents oppose sending maritime patrol aircraft and logistical support vessels to the Hormuz Strait, compared to 36% in favor.
Notably, among the Democratic Party's support base, 55% oppose the deployment, significantly outpacing the 31% who support it. Among the broader progressive demographic, 60% expressed opposition to the deployment (29% in favor).
Experts warn that the deployment controversy could hinder the government's ability to consolidate its core support while also expanding its appeal to moderate and conservative voters, ultimately weakening its governing power. If the Democratic Party, the ruling coalition, and its core supporters fracture over the deployment, it could undermine the existing support base and jeopardize President Lee's vision of securing a structural majority.
In this context, Professor Eom Gi-hong from Kyungpook National University noted, “The Hormuz situation represents support for a war without justification from the perspective of the progressive base, which will inevitably lead to a loss of support,” adding that “the shock and repercussions will likely last a considerable time.” Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon stated, “If a final decision on deployment is made, it will be crucial for the Blue House to clearly explain the rationale behind the decision and the diplomatic benefits that can be gained, as well as how effectively it can persuade the leadership of the Democratic Party and the pro-Lee faction to restore governing momentum.”
* This article has been translated by AI.
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