In a summit scheduled for September 24 in Washington, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to address key issues including trade, technology, the Iran conflict, and the Ukraine war. Both conflicts share a commonality in that the U.S. requires China's influence. However, the likelihood of China fully complying with U.S. demands appears low.
The most pressing issue is Iran. The U.S. is intensifying economic isolation to weaken Iran's military capabilities and nuclear program. The challenge lies in the fact that China, Iran's largest oil buyer, is not participating in U.S. sanctions. China has established a covert trade network with Iran based on a barter system, where Iran supplies oil and China provides coupons for purchasing Chinese products instead of cash. This method allows them to completely evade the international financial system monitored by the U.S.
Iran Sanctions: Divergent Positions
On September 15, Treasury Secretary Scott Vessen announced that Trump and Xi would continue discussions on trade relations between China and Iran during their summit. It is anticipated that Trump will pressure Xi to actively participate in sanctions against Iran.
However, China's official stance contradicts that of the U.S. The Chinese Foreign Ministry clearly stated last month that "sanctions and pressure do not help resolve issues; they only escalate tensions and worsen the situation." It is expected that Xi will express opposition to U.S. sanctions against Iran during the summit.
China also disagrees with the U.S. claim that Iran should abandon its nuclear ambitions. While opposing Iran's development of nuclear weapons, China insists that Iran's rights to peaceful nuclear energy, as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), must be recognized. On September 10, China explicitly mentioned Iran's right to peaceful nuclear use at the United Nations Security Council, stating that the issue should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation rather than military pressure.
China Unmoved by Russia Sanctions
The situation is similar regarding the Ukraine war. Trump hopes Xi will exert influence over Russian President Vladimir Putin to facilitate a ceasefire. On September 16, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a large-scale sanctions bill aimed at weakening Russia's military capabilities. The bill includes provisions for imposing tariffs of up to 100% on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas in large quantities, directly targeting major buyers like China and India.
Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that China will halt its purchases of Russian oil and gas. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the implementation of sanctions against Russia, China has maintained trade relations with Russia. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated on September 15 that China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions lacking legal basis and not approved by the United Nations Security Council. If the U.S. imposes a 100% tariff on China, it is expected that China will respond with retaliatory tariffs, export controls on rare earths, and a halt to purchases of U.S. products, similar to last year.
Tightrope Walk: Seeking a Delicate Compromise
Ultimately, during the summit on September 24, Trump is likely to demand two things from Xi: cooperation in reducing oil transactions with Iran to tighten its economic situation and assistance in persuading Putin to end the Ukraine war.
However, Xi is not expected to readily accept these demands. China draws a line by not supporting Iran's nuclear weapons development or the prolongation of the war while refusing to participate in U.S. unilateral sanctions. Regarding Russia, China supports negotiations for a ceasefire but sees no reason to join U.S. pressure against Russia.
As the costs of direct U.S. pressure on both Iran and Russia increase, China's cooperation becomes increasingly crucial for the U.S. Conversely, for Xi, both Iran and Russia represent important partners in securing an independent diplomatic space amid strategic competition with the U.S. Therefore, the upcoming U.S.-China summit is expected to seek a compromise where China collaborates on non-proliferation and ceasefire negotiations while partially aligning with U.S. sanctions policy.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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