The Ministry of Finance and Economy is preparing to release a revised 2026 tax revenue estimate at the end of September, with annual receipts seen above 465.4 trillion won.
The projection would put tax revenue more than 50 trillion won above the 415.4 trillion won target set in April's supplementary budget and exceed the previous record of 395.9 trillion won in 2022.
Tax revenue reached 274 trillion won in the first seven months of the year, up 41.4 trillion won from a year earlier, according to ministry data released last month.
The collection rate against the supplementary budget target stood at 66.0 percent, compared with the five-year average of 63.5 percent.
Corporate tax revenue rose 4.4 trillion won from a year earlier to 51.8 trillion won through July, before interim payments by companies with December fiscal year-ends were reflected in the figures.
Those companies file interim corporate tax payments based on first-half earnings in August, with larger payments allowed to be made in installments through September.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix posted combined first-half operating profit of nearly 245 trillion won, putting their interim corporate tax payments in focus for the August and September revenue figures.
Officials reported that the government sees the interim payments from semiconductor companies as a key factor supporting its latest revenue estimate.
This year's excess revenue could also be added to the government's planned Future Response Fund, although the amount to be transferred has not been decided.
The fund has a separate 162.3 trillion won revenue base from projected 2027 domestic tax receipts exceeding their 10-year trend.
Adding at least 50 trillion won from this year's excess revenue would bring potential fund resources to 212.3 trillion won, before other possible sources, although the government has not decided whether to transfer the full amount.
Under the 2027 budget proposal, 45.4 trillion won from the fund would be invested in youth, growth engines, regional development and education and talent, while 12.5 trillion won would be used to reduce new government bond issuance.
A decision on how to use this year's excess revenue will be made after the revised tax estimate is released and following discussions within the Ministry of Planning and Budget and consultations with Cheong Wa Dae and the finance ministry, Minister of Planning and Budget Park Hong-keun said on Sept. 17.
AJP Takeaways
- South Korea's 2026 tax revenue is expected to exceed 465.4 trillion won, with excess revenue topping 50 trillion won and annual receipts surpassing the previous record set in 2022.
- The Ministry of Finance and Economy is preparing a revised tax revenue estimate for the end of September, with interim corporate tax payments from major semiconductor companies expected to support August and September collections.
- The Future Response Fund has a separate 162.3 trillion won revenue base for 2027, while adding at least 50 trillion won from this year's excess revenue could lift potential resources to 212.3 trillion won if the government decides to transfer the money.
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