The KOSPI index is struggling to maintain the 6,600 level as it seeks to build momentum for a rebound during the third-quarter earnings season. The domestic market has been hindered by soaring U.S. Treasury yields, a spike in international oil prices due to the resumption of U.S. military operations against Iran, and growing market caution following the end of share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. There is increasing interest in whether the domestic market can overcome the triple challenges of high dependence on semiconductors, a strong won, and a lack of foreign capital inflow.
According to the Korea Exchange, the KOSPI closed at 6,625.93, down 377.81 points (5.39%) from the previous week’s 7,003.74. Foreign and institutional investors sold a net 6.4692 trillion won and 2.3887 trillion won, respectively, while individual investors bought a net 6.2 trillion won, but this was not enough to defend the index. Samsung Electronics reported a record quarterly operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won, yet its stock fell 2.42%, while SK Hynix dropped 2.44%.
Market observers attribute the decline to a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the October holiday and the exodus of foreign investors. As the large-scale share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix near completion, the buying intensity from other corporations that led these buybacks has significantly weakened, with a net purchase of only 2.4823 trillion won over the last three trading days.
The outflow of foreign capital has also intensified. Foreign investors have sold a net 197 trillion won in the securities market this year, a staggering figure compared to net sales of 4 trillion won in 2025, flat in 2024, and net purchases of 11 trillion won in 2023. Since January, foreign investors have actively realized profits from their holdings in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, reducing their ownership stakes to 46.38% and 49.59%, respectively, marking the lowest levels since January 11, 2008, during the global financial crisis.
The direction of the domestic market is expected to hinge on the earnings momentum of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as the U.S. inflation index and recovery of AI investment sentiment. A key event to watch is the 'OCP (Open Compute Project) Global Summit' taking place from October 12 to 15 in San Jose, California. This event will feature major tech companies like Meta, Google, and Microsoft, and is expected to provide important indicators for the direction of AI infrastructure investment, technology standards, and investment speed. It will also serve as a platform to assess the order potential for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and major semiconductor component companies.
Additionally, the U.S. consumer price index for September, the Federal Reserve's economic report, and the September producer price index (PPI) and retail sales data are scheduled for release from October 12 to 16, which will help gauge the pace of U.S. monetary tightening.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, "Samsung Electronics' Q3 earnings exceeded market expectations, but the ongoing net selling by foreign and institutional investors, market caution due to the October holiday, and pressures from international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields have prevented the index from holding its ground. If the CPI confirms a slowdown in inflation and oil and interest rates stabilize, we can expect a rise in the KOSPI."
Seo Sang-young, an executive at Mirae Asset Securities, remarked, "This OCP event is a significant stage where we can anticipate extensive changes in new AI infrastructure investment plans, scales, payback periods, and funding methods."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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