The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 will not only determine the balance of power in Congress during the latter half of President Donald Trump's term but also serve as a precursor to the 2028 presidential election. This midterm will see all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats (including one special election) contested, along with gubernatorial elections in 36 states.
Particularly in battleground states where Democrats and Republicans are expected to compete fiercely for Senate seats, delays in vote counting could prolong the determination of which party will hold the majority in Congress. Analysts and U.S. media have identified up to seven key Senate battlegrounds among the 50 states, including Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan.
Voting deadlines vary by state; results expected around noon on November 4 in Korea
In the U.S., voting end times vary by state due to time zone differences and local election laws. Polls will close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time (8 a.m. November 4 in Korea) in parts of Kentucky and Indiana, followed by closures at 7 p.m. in Georgia and South Carolina, and at 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina and Ohio.
Polling will conclude at 8 p.m. in many areas, including Pennsylvania and other parts of the Midwest. In the West Coast states like California and Washington, polls will close at 11 p.m., while most areas in Hawaii and Alaska will finish voting at midnight on November 4. Some regions in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska will not close polls until 1 a.m. on November 4 (3 p.m. in Korea).
According to the Associated Press, initial results from the AP Voter Poll, conducted by major U.S. media outlets, will be released at 5 p.m. Eastern Time (7 a.m. November 4 in Korea). This nonpartisan survey, conducted by SSRS, combines pre-election voter surveys with interviews of voters on Election Day to gauge voting tendencies and perceptions on key issues. Subsequent state and national survey results will be released throughout the night on Election Day.
Initial trends in vote counting are expected to begin emerging around noon on November 4 in Korea. The Times of London predicts that the anticipated 'blue wave' for Democrats may start to take shape during the night of November 3, Eastern Time.
Hispanic voter sentiment in Florida under scrutiny; early results in battleground states
Georgia and North Carolina are among the states where Senate election voting will close relatively early. The Financial Times notes that the results from these two states could serve as early indicators of the potential for a Democratic blue wave. Recent polls indicate that Democratic candidates in the Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina are leading their Republican counterparts by around 10 percentage points.
Florida is known for its quick vote counting, which may allow for early insights into the sentiments of Hispanic voters, a key demographic in this election. How Hispanic voters, who contributed to Trump's victory in the 2024 election, respond to strict immigration policies and rising living costs will be closely watched.
However, it is important to note that early vote counts may not reflect the final outcomes. In areas where mail-in ballots are processed first, Democratic candidates may initially lead, only to see their margins narrow as same-day voting results come in. Conversely, in regions where mail-in ballot counting is delayed, Republican candidates may show early advantages that could shift as more votes are tallied. This is due to the tendency of Democratic supporters to prefer early voting by mail.
For instance, Georgia and North Carolina allow for the pre-processing of mail-in ballots before Election Day, enabling quicker reporting of those results. In contrast, states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin process mail-in ballots only on Election Day, which may result in later reporting of those totals.
Mail-in ballots and ranked-choice voting may delay Senate majority determination
Alaska, another battleground state, has adopted a ranked-choice voting system where voters rank four candidates from first to fourth choice. If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the initial count, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the next preferred candidate until a majority winner is determined.
The Alaska election authority has announced that the final ranked-choice results will be released on November 18. As a result, the initial vote counts for Senate and House races may differ from the final outcomes.
U.S. media outlets predict that due to the unpredictable nature of the races in battleground states, combined with the time required for mail-in ballot counting and potential recount requests, clarity on which party will hold the Senate majority may not emerge until around November 4. Axios reports that among the seven battleground states that will determine the outcome of the federal Senate races for both parties, delays in confirming winners are expected in Alaska, Maine, Texas, and Kansas.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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