Following the U.S. midterm elections, where the Republican Party lost control of both the House and Senate to the Democrats, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is seeking an early meeting with President Donald Trump. Concerns have arisen within the Japanese government that Trump, constrained by domestic policy challenges, may rush diplomatic negotiations with China or North Korea. Takaichi aims to reaffirm the strength of the Japan-U.S. alliance through direct dialogue.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Minoru stated at a press conference on the 4th, "Regardless of the election results, the Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's foreign and security policy," adding that Japan will closely cooperate at all levels, including with the leaders and foreign ministers. Jiji Press interpreted this as a signal to expedite communication with the U.S., reporting on the 5th that the Japanese government is looking for opportunities for a Japan-U.S. summit ahead of the ASEAN-related summit scheduled for mid-November. NHK also reported that discussions for a meeting are expected to intensify around international conferences after mid-November.
Timing is crucial for Japan regarding the summit. According to Nippon TV, the Japanese government arranged a Japan-U.S. summit ahead of the U.S.-China summit in September to ensure that the U.S. does not make concessions to China without prior consultation with Japan. An official present at the meeting emphasized, "It was the best timing, and we could exchange candid opinions." A senior Japanese official remarked, "It has become more important than ever for Prime Minister Takaichi to convey Japan's position to President Trump."
According to Yomiuri Shimbun, there are opinions within the Japanese government that Takaichi should meet with Trump before her first visit to China during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in mid-November to realign perceptions regarding China.
The North Korea issue is also a point of concern for Japan. Yomiuri Shimbun reported that Japan insists on addressing the abduction of its citizens alongside nuclear and missile issues. There are fears that if Trump rushes into direct negotiations with North Korea, the abduction issue may be sidelined. A senior government official stated, "It would be problematic if negotiations proceed without Japan's involvement."
Japan's concerns extend beyond the abduction issue. Jiji Press reported that another government official mentioned the possibility of Trump seeking a Nobel Peace Prize by pushing for an end to the Korean War, which remains in a state of armistice, amid the ongoing crisis in Iran. He noted, "If U.S. troops are withdrawn or nuclear and missile issues are deprioritized, Japan's security environment would change completely."
Japan is also anxious about the potential for increased U.S. pressure on its allies. According to Jiji Press, a senior official in the Prime Minister's Office expressed concern that Japan might be asked to increase its investment in the U.S. or accelerate the timeline for achieving agreed-upon investment levels during tariff negotiations.
The Japanese government plans to adhere to existing agreements for now. Jiji Press reported that regardless of the midterm election results, Japan intends to continue implementing its investment of up to $550 billion in the U.S. This is because the authority to raise or lower tariffs remains with President Trump, based on executive orders, even if the congressional landscape changes. The Japanese government views its investment in the U.S. as a "card" to mitigate shocks from Trump's unpredictable actions.
Defense spending is another variable. NHK noted that there are concerns that the U.S. may demand an increase in defense spending ahead of revisions to key security documents, including the national security strategy, later this year.
While the Japanese government is considering various possibilities, it remains difficult to predict what choices Trump, who does not adhere to traditional political norms, will actually make. According to Fuji TV, reactions within the Japanese government include sentiments of fear, with one key official stating, "We cannot predict what impact it will have on Japan."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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