Due to the impact of low birth rates, the number of elementary school students is projected to fall below 300,000 for the first time. In contrast, the number of newborns has shown an upward trend, increasing for 26 consecutive months. As the effects of declining birth rates become evident in the education sector, signs of change are emerging in population indicators.
According to data from the National Statistical Portal and the Korea Educational Development Institute, the number of children born in 2020, who will be eligible for elementary school in 2027, is 272,337. This figure is approximately 10% lower than the previous year's total of 302,676.
This year, the number of elementary school students is recorded at 301,442, marking the lowest level since statistics began in 1964. Next year, it is likely to drop further, potentially entering the 200,000 range for the first time.
Elementary school enrollment peaked in 1968 at 1,055,632 students. Since then, the number has declined, falling to the 400,000 range in 2009 and entering the 300,000 range in 2024 with 353,828 students.
The Ministry of Education's projections released earlier this year indicate that the number of first-grade students will decrease to 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028, and 247,591 in 2029. By 2031, it is expected to drop to 220,481.
However, recent birth statistics reveal a different trend. According to the National Data Agency, the number of births last year was 254,341, a 6.7% increase from the previous year’s 238,317. This marks the second consecutive year of growth following 2024.
This year's increase is even more pronounced. In August, the number of births reached 23,703, a 13.0% rise compared to the same month last year. This is the highest level for August since 2019.
From July 2024 to August this year, the number of births has increased year-on-year for 26 consecutive months. The cumulative number of births from January to August this year also rose to 193,783, a 14.5% increase compared to the same period last year.
The total fertility rate, which represents the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, is also on the rise. Last year's annual total fertility rate was 0.80, while in August this year, it increased to 0.87, up by 0.09 from the same month last year.
It takes about six more years for recently born children to enter elementary school. Even if the trend of increasing births continues, a decline in student numbers in schools is expected to remain inevitable for the time being.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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