U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran could endure a maritime blockade for at least three to four months. This analysis contrasts with President Donald Trump's public claims that Iran's economy and military are rapidly collapsing.
According to the Washington Post, a confidential assessment delivered to the White House this week indicates that Iran could withstand U.S. sanctions for 90 to 120 days, and possibly longer. Sources familiar with the matter stated that Iran would face more severe economic pressures only after this period.
This analysis notably separates the impact of the blockade from the regime's resilience. The report suggests that Iran is storing oil in tankers left idle by the blockade and adjusting production levels to maintain its oil fields. Some intelligence officials believe that if certain rail and land routes through Central Asia remain operational, Iran's buffer capacity could increase.
The military assessment also diverges from Trump's statements. The Washington Post reported that Iran retains about 75% of its mobile launchers and 70% of its missile stockpiles. Many underground storage facilities have been reactivated, and there are indications that some damaged missiles have been repaired or that new missiles, nearly completed at the onset of conflict, are being assembled.
Analysts have noted that the threat in the Strait of Hormuz comes more from drones than from ballistic missiles. The Washington Post cited analysts who warned that the low cost and ease of concealing drones could lead to significant disruptions in the insurance market if even one ship is struck. The report also indicated that at least 228 U.S. military facilities and equipment in the Middle East have been damaged or destroyed due to Iranian attacks.
In contrast, the Trump administration has emphasized the effectiveness of the blockade. Trump recently claimed that Iran's economy is “collapsing” and stated that the White House estimates Iran is losing $500 million daily due to the sanctions. He also mentioned that the operation to support navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, dubbed 'Project Freedom,' was temporarily suspended due to progress in negotiations with Iran.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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