According to a report released by the IEA on May 13, global oil demand is expected to reach 100.4 million barrels per day in 2026. This figure is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than the levels recorded before the outbreak of war following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran in late February.
The IEA forecasts that if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes gradually starting in June, global oil supply will be around 100.2 million barrels per day, indicating a shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day compared to demand. In January and February, prior to the conflict, oil supply was approximately 107 million barrels per day.
The agency also reported that global oil supply in April was recorded at 95.1 million barrels per day, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 12.8 million barrels per day since February. This decline is attributed to a reduction of 14.4 million barrels per day in oil production from countries affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to preliminary data from the IEA, global observed crude oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March and an additional 117 million barrels last month. Disruptions in maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz led to a decrease of 170 million barrels in land-based inventories, while maritime inventories increased by 53 million barrels.
As IEA member countries release strategic reserves in response to the energy crisis, land-based inventories in OECD countries have plummeted by 146 million barrels, while non-OECD countries saw a relatively smaller decrease of 24 million barrels.
Furthermore, the IEA noted that cumulative supply losses from Gulf oil-producing countries due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already surpassed 1 billion barrels, with current production halts exceeding 14 million barrels per day. However, the agency assessed that the market was already in a state of oversupply before the crisis began, and both producers and consumers are responding to market signals, which has significantly narrowed the current supply-demand gap.
The IEA stated, "If an agreement is reached to end the war and oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes in the third quarter, demand could begin to rise again by the end of the year," but cautioned that the pace of supply recovery is expected to be slow, predicting that the oil market will remain in a state of supply shortage through the final quarter of this year.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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