Election Outlook: Seoul's Vote Key Amid Strong Ruling Party Support

With just 20 days until the local elections on June 3, political experts are identifying Seoul, Busan, and Daegu as key battlegrounds. The outcome of the Seoul mayoral race, in particular, is expected to significantly influence the political landscape going forward.

On May 14, Ajou Economics surveyed six experts regarding their predictions for the gubernatorial elections, all of whom forecasted an advantage for the ruling Democratic Party. Predictions varied, with some experts suggesting the party would win in 9 out of 16 districts, while others anticipated victories in as many as 15 districts.

Initially, the Democratic Party was expected to achieve a decisive victory, leveraging the early support ratings for the administration of Lee Jae-myung and the judgment against the Yoon Suk-yeol government. However, recent analyses indicate that even experts are uncertain about the election results, which have entered a fog of unpredictability.
  Experts unanimously agree that Seoul is the most critical battleground in this election. The city holds symbolic significance as the capital, and both the Seoul mayor and Gyeonggi Province governor are seen as stepping stones to higher office. Additionally, Seoul was won by the People Power Party four years ago, intensifying the competition between the two parties. The Democratic Party has nominated Jeong Won-oh, the mayor of Seongdong District, while the People Power Party has put forward incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

Eom Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, stated, "For the People Power Party, even if they do not achieve a majority in the gubernatorial races, winning in Seoul would be considered a success." Jo Sung-joo, head of the Political Development Institute, added, "The Democratic Party must reclaim Seoul to truly claim victory in the local elections," noting that the People Power Party would be evaluated positively if they can retain Busan, Daegu, and Gyeongnam.

The mayoral race in Daegu features Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum, a former prime minister, against the People Power Party's Choo Kyung-ho, a former economic minister. The Busan mayoral race includes former lawmaker Jeon Jae-soo from the Democratic Party and incumbent Mayor Park Hyung-jun from the People Power Party, both considered major contests.

Political analyst Park Sang-byeong remarked, "I see Seoul, Busan, and Daegu as battlegrounds. The election outcome could hinge on a margin of 3 to 5 percent in vote share," adding that significant mistakes in the lead-up to the election could alter the results. Jo Sung-joo also identified Seoul, Busan, and Daegu as key battlegrounds.

Experts generally predict that the Democratic Party will win more than half of the 16 gubernatorial races. However, estimates for the number of Democratic Party winners range from 9 to 15. Park Sang-byeong forecasts a decisive victory for the Democratic Party in 15 districts, while Lee Jong-hoon predicts a worst-case scenario for the People Power Party, estimating a 15 to 1 outcome.

Shin Yul, a professor at Myongji University, anticipates the Democratic Party will win in 12 to 13 districts, while Choi Jin, head of the Presidential Leadership Research Institute, expects 13 victories for the party. Conversely, Eom Kyung-young believes the People Power Party will successfully defend its positions in five districts in the Yeongnam region, predicting a 9 to 7 outcome in favor of the Democratic Party. Jo Sung-joo expressed caution regarding predictions for the number of winners.
 
Experts predict that the special prosecutor law proposed by the Democratic Party and real estate issues could become significant variables in the upcoming election. The Democratic Party claims that the prosecution under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration engaged in fabricated investigations and prosecutions, prompting them to propose a special prosecutor law to uncover the truth. The People Power Party, however, argues that the special prosecutor aims to dismiss charges against President Lee Jae-myung and erase crimes.

Lee Jong-hoon noted, "The People Power Party candidates are rallying around the special prosecutor issue rather than Jang Dong-hyuk's leadership to consolidate votes," adding that issues such as the recent end of the capital gains tax exemption and how real estate prices will respond could also influence voter sentiment, along with potential last-minute candidate unifications.

Shin Yul also pointed out that the special prosecutor could provoke anger among moderate voters, and issues like the long-term holding tax exemption and property taxes could have an impact. He also mentioned that the government's response to recent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could resonate with voters.

Conversely, some experts believe that the issues raised as variables before the local elections are unlikely to significantly alter the overall trend. Choi Jin stated, "While constitutional amendments and special prosecutors are important topics in politics, the election will ultimately be determined by the judgment against Lee Jae-myung and the judgment against Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters," predicting that the 'Yoon Suk-yeol judgment' will have a more substantial effect.

Park Sang-byeong added, "While issues like candidate selection controversies or inappropriate remarks are certainly relevant, they are not variables that will significantly impact the election outcome. Mistakes made just before the election could directly affect votes, but as the election approaches, the dynamics can change frequently, so the impact on voter sentiment is likely to be minimal."