The competition rate for candidates in the 9th nationwide local elections, scheduled for June 3, has been recorded at an average of 1.8 to 1. This figure, based on preliminary data before the candidate registration deadline, matches the final competition rate of the 8th local elections in 2022, indicating a trend of historically low competition.
According to the National Election Commission, the overall competition rate stands at 1.8 to 1, with rates of 3.2 to 1 for metropolitan mayors, 2.6 to 1 for local mayors, 2.0 to 1 for provincial council members, 1.7 to 1 for local council members, and 3.3 to 1 for education superintendents. The competition rate for the National Assembly's by-elections is approximately 3.4 to 1. While there are variations by election unit, these figures generally reflect a decrease in competition intensity compared to the past.
However, the term 'historically low' should be used cautiously, as it is based on preliminary figures rather than final counts. There may be some fluctuations once the candidate registration period closes. Nonetheless, the current trend suggests a potential structural change, as competition levels are similar to or lower than previous elections.
The competition rate in local elections is a direct indicator of political participation. Generally, a higher competition rate indicates active political engagement and a wider array of choices. Conversely, a lower rate suggests a reduction in the pool of candidates and limits voter options. Particularly low competition rates in local council and mayoral elections may signal a weakening of local political foundations.
Several factors contribute to this phenomenon. First, there is a decrease in incentives for political participation. While local politics are closely tied to residents' lives, there remains a strong perception that their influence and rewards are limited compared to national politics. This perception hinders the influx of new talent into the political arena.
Second, there are institutional barriers to entry. The burden of election costs, organizational mobilization structures, and a party-centered election environment have been cited as factors limiting the entry of political newcomers. In particular, the structure in which party nominations determine election outcomes can weaken competition in the main elections and lead to lower overall competition rates.
Third, there is a general fatigue with politics. Ongoing political disputes and low trust in policies contribute to a decline in the willingness to participate in politics. This affects not only voters but also potential candidates.
However, the decline in competition rates should not be viewed solely as a negative phenomenon. In some respects, it reflects a reduction in the excessive proliferation of candidates in the past, leading to a reorganization around candidates with genuine competitive viability. Additionally, issues such as population decline and regional extinction also impact local election competition rates. In certain areas, the shrinking voter base is accompanied by a decrease in political participation.
Ultimately, what matters more than the competition rate itself is the context behind it. Whether the current low competition rate results from a 'healthy refinement' or a 'decline in political participation' will shape policy responses. However, a comprehensive review of recent trends raises concerns that the latter is more pronounced.
Addressing this issue requires a structural approach. Improvements in election cost mitigation, transparency in the nomination process, and expanded support for political newcomers must be pursued concurrently. It is also crucial to enhance the authority and responsibilities of local governments to elevate the practical significance of political participation.
Local elections are a fundamental institution that underpins democracy. The competition rate of 1.8 to 1 is not just a statistic but a warning about the structure of political participation. A democracy with fewer choices cannot be healthy.
What is needed now is not merely the expression 'historically low,' but a sober analysis of why such figures are recurring. Opening the doors to politics and restoring participation is the starting point for revitalizing local governance.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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