In the Seoul mayoral election, a key battleground in the local elections, Jung Won-oh of the Democratic Party is projected to be leading. However, with a tight race continuing until the end and differing exit poll results, analysts caution against making premature conclusions about the final outcome.
According to a joint exit poll released on June 3 by three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS), Jung is expected to receive 51.4% of the vote, leading Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party by 5.4 percentage points, who is projected to receive 46.0%.
A separate prediction by JTBC shows Jung at 53.5% and Oh at 42.9%, indicating a stronger lead for Jung, although the gap of 10.6 percentage points is significantly larger than that reported by the three broadcasters.
While both polls agree on Jung's advantage, they show substantial differences in the margin. Political analysts note, "While there is a common trend favoring Jung, the actual gap will need to be confirmed through the vote count."
The atmosphere surrounding this mayoral election has shifted significantly from the beginning to the end of the campaign.
In the early stages, the effects of President Lee Jae-myung's inauguration and initial expectations for the administration contributed to Jung showing a double-digit lead in various polls. The Democratic Party, promoting stability and change for Seoul, expressed relative confidence as it campaigned across the city's 25 districts.
However, as the election progressed, Oh began to close the gap. Emphasizing his experience as a former mayor and continuity in administration, Oh rallied his supporters, and in some polls, the margin between the two candidates narrowed to within the margin of error. By the end of the campaign, some surveys indicated a near tie, elevating the Seoul mayoral race to the nation's most competitive contest.
Notably, the collapse of the Seosomun Overpass, which occurred just before the blackout period when polls are prohibited, emerged as a significant last-minute variable. Questions regarding the city's safety management and crisis response have been raised, potentially impacting the election's dynamics.
Due to these developments, political circles are adopting a cautious stance regarding the exit poll results.
Lee In-young, the head of Jung's campaign, stated immediately after the exit poll announcement, "We view this positively, but since the counting has not yet begun, we will wait for the results. Jung has sincerely engaged with citizens during the campaign and presented a new vision for Seoul. We hope the public's desire for change is reflected in their votes."
The People Power Party also maintains that it cannot declare a winner or loser until the final vote count is completed. Historical precedents show that significant discrepancies often arise between exit polls and actual results, especially in large voter regions like Seoul, where trends can shift during the counting process.
If the results from the three broadcasters and JTBC are reflected in the final count, Jung would prevent incumbent Oh's bid for a fifth term and return the mayoralty to the Democratic Party. He would also make history as the first mayor from a district council background.
Conversely, if Oh manages a last-minute comeback, it would signify a symbolic victory for the conservative camp, reinforcing continuity in Seoul's administration.
Ultimately, the Seoul mayoral election will be decided not by exit polls but by the actual vote count, as the nation watches to see whether the Democratic Party's return to power in Seoul becomes a reality or if Oh Se-hoon's resilience is confirmed once again.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.