South Korea and Mexico both opened Group A with wins. Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 in the tournament opener, while South Korea defeated Czechia 2-1.
That left the two sides level on three points, with Mexico ahead on goal difference.
The match kicks off at Guadalajara Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico, at 10 a.m. Friday in Korea, or 9 p.m. Thursday local time.
Before that, Czechia and South Africa will meet in another Group A match, with both teams still looking for their first points.
Under the expanded 2026 format, the top two teams from each of the 12 groups qualify directly for the Round of 32, along with the eight best third-placed teams.
Mexico still enter the match as the clear favorite.
Opta’s match predictor gives Mexico a 48.8 percent chance of winning, compared with 24.8 percent for South Korea, while odds listed on WhoScored also favor Mexico at 2.00, with South Korea at 3.90 and a draw at 3.50.
For South Korea, the simplest route is still a win.
If Czechia beat South Africa or the earlier match ends in a draw, a victory over Mexico would secure South Korea a top-two finish in Group A with one match to spare.
That is because South Korea would move to six points, while at least two of the other three teams would no longer be able to finish above them.
But if South Africa beat Czechia, even a South Korea win over Mexico would not mathematically guarantee a top-two place.
In that scenario, South Africa could still beat South Korea in the final round and Mexico could beat Czechia, leaving
South Korea, Mexico and South Africa all on six points.
The group would then be decided by tiebreakers such as goal difference.
Even in that case, six points would almost certainly put South Korea in a strong position to advance, given that eight of the 12 third-placed teams also reach the knockout stage.
A draw against Mexico would also keep South Korea in control of their fate.
It would put South Korea on four points, meaning they would secure a top-two finish by avoiding defeat against South Africa in their final group match.
But a draw with Mexico followed by a loss to South Africa could leave South Korea exposed to goal-difference calculations.
That risk would be greatest if Czechia and South Africa draw, because all four teams could still finish on four points depending on the final round.
A defeat to Mexico would leave South Korea on three points and make the South Africa match decisive.
Beating South Africa would then become the clearest route to the Round of 32.
A draw in the final match could still leave South Korea with a chance through the third-placed team ranking, but it would not remove uncertainty.
A loss to South Africa would leave South Korea on three points and put their qualification hopes in serious danger.
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