As the supply of apartments in Seoul is expected to decrease this year compared to last, a surge in completions in the second half of 2026 may provide some relief to the rental market ahead of the fall moving season. However, the increased supply is concentrated in a few districts, highlighting ongoing disparities in availability across the city.
According to an analysis by real estate firm R114, the total number of apartments scheduled for completion in Seoul this year is 26,951, down from 37,103 last year, representing a 27.4% decrease.
While the annual supply is declining, the second half of the year will see an increase in completions. In the first half of 2026, only 6,947 apartments were completed, a 69.4% drop from the same period last year. However, 20,004 apartments are expected to be completed in the second half, an increase of 5,573 units or 38.6% compared to the previous year. This means that 74.2% of this year's total completions will occur in the latter half. Notably, 9,073 apartments are set to be completed in the third quarter, which is 3.5 times the 2,560 units completed in the same quarter last year.
However, the increase in completions is not evenly distributed across districts. Seocho District is expected to see the highest number of completions, with 5,734 apartments scheduled. This is followed by Eunpyeong with 2,451 units, Jungnang with 1,950 units, Seongdong with 1,936 units, and Gangseo with 1,478 units. Together, these five districts account for 67.7% of the total completions in Seoul for the second half.
In contrast, districts such as Yeongdeungpo, Nowon, Dobong, and Yangcheon are projected to have no new apartment supply in the second half. While Yeongdeungpo had 707 units, Nowon had 574, Dobong had 299, and Yangcheon had 103 units completed in the first half, there will be no new supply in these areas in the latter half.
Some districts are also experiencing a significant drop in completions compared to the first half. Songpa District saw 2,088 units completed in the first half but is expected to have only 484 in the second half. Dongdaemun will drop from 1,113 units to 127, and Gangdong will decrease from 588 to 64 units. The decreases in Dongdaemun and Gangdong represent 88.6% and 89.1% declines, respectively.
Market analysts believe that the increase in completions in the second half could act as a buffer for the overall rental market in Seoul. As new apartments become available, more rental listings will emerge to accommodate those moving from existing homes to new ones. However, if the new supply is concentrated in specific areas, demand for rentals in regions without new completions may intensify, leading to greater disparities in supply and demand.
Concerns about regional imbalances in rental prices are also growing. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the cumulative rental price increase in Seoul this year has been highest in the northeastern region at 5.70%. Other areas, including the southwestern, southeastern, northwestern, and central districts, have also seen increases in the upper 3% range. This marks a significant rise compared to the previous year when most regions experienced increases of around 1%.
However, the increase in completions in the second half does not indicate a recovery in long-term supply. R114 forecasts that the annual number of apartments scheduled for completion in Seoul will drop from 26,951 this year to 17,012 next year, a decrease of 9,939 units. This is expected to be about half of the average annual supply over the past five years.
Baek Sae-rom, a senior researcher at R114, noted, "In Seoul, the decrease in new apartment completions, coupled with the obligation for landlords to occupy their properties after lease agreements end, is making it increasingly difficult for existing apartments to be listed for rent. While there may be adjustments in price increases due to external factors like interest rates, persistent supply-demand imbalances could heighten concerns about both sales and rental prices."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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