The strong performance of U.S. technology stocks, particularly in AI semiconductors, continued for a second day, boosting the likelihood of gains in the South Korean stock market. However, the June export figures, set to be released before the market opens, along with the growth rate of semiconductor exports, are expected to be key factors influencing investor sentiment during the trading day.
On June 30, the KOSPI closed at 8,476.48, up 81.83 points (0.97%). The KOSDAQ finished at 916.18, down 4.39 points (0.48%), taking a breather after a recent rally.
U.S. markets continued their upward trend, driven by strong performances in AI semiconductors and major tech stocks. On June 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 136.46 points (0.26%) to close at 52,319.20. The S&P 500 gained 58.93 points (0.79%) to finish at 7,499.36, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 393.58 points (1.52%) to end at 26,213.72.
Despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, semiconductor stocks led the market. Nvidia rose by 2.6%, SanDisk surged by 10.9%, and Micron gained 0.8%. Apple and Alphabet also saw increases of 2.7% and 0.6%, respectively, as buying interest spread across major tech stocks.
While uncertainty remains regarding the resumption of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, analysts believe the impact on the stock market is less significant than before. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices held steady at around $69.90 per barrel, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was at 4.47%. The market appears to be focusing more on corporate earnings and the momentum of AI investments rather than geopolitical factors.
Analysts expect the South Korean stock market to open strong, buoyed by the rise in U.S. semiconductor stocks and gains in KOSPI 200 futures. The easing of rebalancing pressures at the end of the first half and quarter is also expected to stabilize the supply-demand environment.
In pre-market trading (8:00 AM to 8:50 AM), Samsung Electronics was up 0.50%, and SK Hynix rose by over 1%.
The most significant variable for the day will be the June export figures, with expectations of a 60.7% year-on-year increase. Investors are particularly interested in whether the growth rate of semiconductor exports can maintain the 169% level recorded in May. Confirmation of strong export momentum could alleviate recent concerns about a peak in the semiconductor industry and boost investor sentiment in related sectors.
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "Considering the strength of U.S. semiconductors and the rise in KOSPI 200 futures, the South Korean market is likely to continue its upward trend. However, the June export and semiconductor export figures will be crucial in determining price differentiation across sectors."
Experts advise focusing on corporate earnings and industry conditions over external variables that have recently increased market volatility. Although risks related to the Middle East and inflation concerns have not been fully resolved, much of this has already been priced into the market. In the short term, the performance of the semiconductor industry and improvements in earnings are likely to dictate market direction.
The second-quarter earnings season, which begins in July, is also expected to support investor sentiment. Recent upward revisions to the consensus for second-quarter operating profits among KOSPI-listed companies, along with improved annual profit forecasts, suggest that if the export data exceeds expectations, the market could see enhanced momentum, particularly in the semiconductor sector.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.